Jump to content

TS Gaston | 65 mph 995 MB | Another surprise

Iceresistance

By Iceresistance
in Atlantic Basin

 Share

Recommended Posts

Iceresistance Grand Master

Iceresistance

Posted
Posted

Well, that was kinda unexpected given the somewhat strong wind shear. 

...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 20
Location: 32.8°N 45.7°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Spoiler

Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 20 2022
...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...

INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 45.7W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS --------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 45.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a motion to the east. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect the Azores later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Spoiler

Geostationary and microwave satellite data indicate that the system that NHC has been monitoring over the central Atlantic has developed a well-defined center and organized deep convection, and now meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a partial ASCAT pass that showed peak winds in the 25-30 kt range. The low-level center is estimated to be on the southern side of the main area of deep convection.

The depression is currently moving northward at 9 kt on the western side of a subtropical ridge. A faster motion to the northeast is expected on Wednesday when the system reaches the northwestern periphery of the ridge, followed by a turn to the east. By the end of the week, however, the depression is expected to stall in weak steering currents as high pressure builds near and to the north of the cyclone. Over the weekend, the depression is expected to turn northwestward and increase its forward speed as Fiona tracks well to the west of this system.

The models are in fair agreement, but there is some cross-track spread by the end of the period with the GFS showing the fastest solution and ECMWF the slowest. The NHC track forecast lies close to the various consensus models. The depression is currently over relatively warm water, in a region of upper-level diffluence within a somewhat favorable moist environment. These factors should allow the system to strengthen slowly during the next couple of days. However, after that time, much cooler SSTs, drier air, and an increase in westerly shear should end the strengthening trend. The system is expected to become extratropical over the weekend when it moves over SSTs just above 20C. The NHC intensity forecast lies a little lower than HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

Interests in the Azores should monitor forecasts of the depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 32.8N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 34.6N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 36.7N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 38.2N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 39.2N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 39.7N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 39.8N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 40.1N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 42.4N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • The title was changed to TS Gaston | 40 mph 1009 MB | Another surprise
snowlover2 Grand Master

snowlover2

Posted
Posted
Quote 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 20 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GASTON...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 44.4W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of the system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 44.4 West.  Gaston is
moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A
turn to the northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a
motion to the east.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the 
next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect the Azores
later this week.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kebede

 

Say hello to Gaston.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • The title was changed to TS Gaston | 65 mph 1000 MB | Another surprise
clm Grand Master

clm

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Jeez he strengthened fast! Maybe a brief hurricane?

 

65 mph and 1000 mb

I think the GFS had a few predictions a while back where TS were forming in the northern atlantic.  I wish I had saved those but did not.  IIRC most would move further up north and dissipate or go over to England and dissipate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • The title was changed to TS Gaston | 65 mph 995 MB | Another surprise

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...