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TS Javier | 1000mb 45mph |done


StretchCT

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Javier was named on Friday

ropical Storm Javier Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022
 
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JAVIER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 111.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Discussion has it reaching 50mph

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 19.9N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 21.2N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 23.0N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 24.6N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 25.6N 118.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 26.1N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/0600Z 26.1N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 25.5N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z 24.8N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts 

Edited by StretchCT
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Javier is expected to be post tropical tomorrow.  Convection around center has ended.

Spoiler

Javier has been devoid of deep convection for the past few hours. 
Recent satellite surface wind measurements also indicate the cyclone 
has a smaller wind field than previously estimated and 
tropical-storm-force winds are only present in the northern portion 
of the circulation.  Based on the ASCAT data the initial intensity 
is held at 40 kt for this cycle.

The lack of organized, deep convection is an indication Javier is
likely to become a post-tropical cyclone soon.  The system is
moving over a cooling gradient of ocean surface temperatures and
into a region with moderate to strong vertical wind shear and lower
relative humidities.  Model guidance agrees Javier should continue
to weaken and the official forecast reflects this information.  The
system is now predicted to be a post-tropical cyclone within 12
hours.

goes17_vis_11E_202209032235.thumb.gif.6ff2badc83c3ebb7490841b9e4d4d57a.gif

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 04 2022 ...JAVIER DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 118.5W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

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