Hurricane Danielle| 975mb 90mph peak| 976mb 65mph current | Post-tropical

[StretchCT]

NHC a little more bullish on  93L than 91L putting it at 70% in next two days. 

 

It's a little dry but the shear has eased over this one today, at least in this graphic

Sat has the center emerging from the waning convection.  Looked better this morning. Obviously the circulation at the surface is there, all this needs is the convection to come over the top and we're off.  Front is dissolving too making it more barotropic. 

Models say it strengthens.

Vorticity and divergence close.  Convergence noticeably absent.  Not much in the way of lightning. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by StretchCT

[Iceresistance]

It's now TD 5

[StretchCT]

TD 5 is born. Enough convection, well defined coc, water temperature of 27c is higher than usual. Nothing really guiding it and models split after day 3.  Forecast max strength of 90mph.

Spoiler

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 01 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over the 
North Atlantic west of the Azores has developed a well-defined 
circulation and convective banding in the eastern semicircle.  Based 
on this structure, advisories are being initiated on Tropical 
Depression Five with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Despite the high latitude, the cyclone is in an area of light 
steering currents on the southeast and south side of an anomalously 
strong mid-level anticyclone.  This should result in a slow motion 
for the next three days or so, with the guidance showing an eastward 
drift followed by a westward drift.  After three days, the 
anticyclone is forecast to move eastward and weaken as the 
mid-latitude westerlies start encroaching on the system.  The 
large-scale models are not in good agreement with how this will 
steer the cyclone, with the GFS and Canadian showing a general 
motion toward the east while the UKMET and ECMWF forecast a more 
northward motion.  The track forecast is close to all of the 
guidance for the first three days, and then calls for a 
northeastward motion between the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the 
other consensus models at days 4 and 5.

The sea surface temperatures in the area are warmer than normal - 
near 27C.  This warm water, combined with a forecast environment of 
light- to moderate westerly shear for the next three days or so, 
should allow steady strengthening.  The intensity forecast calls for 
the system to become a tropical storm later today, a hurricane in 
about two days, and reach a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 4 days. 
It should be noted that this forecast is close to the intensity 
consensus, and there are models forecasting more intensification.  
After four days, motion over cooler water and increasing shear 
should cause the cyclone to weaken.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 38.1N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 38.2N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 38.2N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 38.1N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 38.0N  44.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 38.2N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 39.5N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 41.5N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
 

5am update had mentioned that convection was only on the east side, but the sat has it now over the center. 

 

[Iceresistance]

May be TS Danielle already!

[Iceresistance]

@StretchCTTD 5 is now TS Danielle.

[clm]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

@StretchCTTD 5 is now TS Danielle.

Can't make up her mind where she wants to go.

 

[StretchCT]

11am disco has same ideas as earlier. Mentions the convection over the center.

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and 
the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical 
Storm Danielle.  Visible satellite imagery also shows convective 
coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation.

The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt.  The tropical 
storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under 
an omega block.  This will likely cause the system to slowly drift 
around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a 
mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4.  The 
official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory 
prediction and lies between the model consensus aids.

Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters.  
Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable, 
with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the 
next three days or so.  The NHC forecast calls for additional 
strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two 
days and peak in intensity in about 4 days.  When the storm moves 
northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea 
surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 38.1N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 38.2N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 38.2N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 38.1N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 38.0N  44.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 38.0N  44.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 38.5N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 40.0N  43.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 42.0N  42.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

The ASCAT in the discussion. https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATBData.php

[StretchCT]

While the mets didn't use rapid intensification, seeing this one go from 40mph to 60mph in one update is pretty quick.  1012 mb to 1005 in 6 hours.  

New forecast now up to 100mph.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 38.1N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 38.1N  44.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 38.0N  44.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 38.0N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 38.2N  45.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 38.7N  44.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 40.5N  43.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 42.5N  41.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

[StretchCT]

Goodnight Danielle

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Goodnight Danielle

And in the morning, she's going to be gorgeous as a hurricane assuming that she does not have interference overnight.

[Iceresistance]

70 mph and 995 MB, almost a hurricane (Or already is lol)

Edited September 2, 2022 by Iceresistance

[clm]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

70 mph and 995 MB, almost a hurricane (Or already is lol)

 

Still a TS so far.  I don't know how the waters are over there so not sure if they're a bit on the colder side which could slow down her development.

[Iceresistance]

12 minutes ago, clm said:

 

Still a TS so far.  I don't know how the waters are over there so not sure if they're a bit on the colder side which could slow down her development.

The Subtropics are extremely warm for this time of the year.

[clm]

She's now a hurricane.

 

[StretchCT]

Peak expected at 85mph now.

Spoiler

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

The satellite presentation of Danielle has degraded some this 
afternoon. Drier mid-level air appears to have wrapped into the 
circulation, and the cyclone now has more of a banded structure 
around the western and southern portions of the system. Recently, 
infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled within a small ring of 
inner core convection. Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak 
estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt 
for this advisory.

Danielle is nearly stationary, as it remains under weak steering 
currents with a blocking high pressure ridge positioned over the 
North Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to meander or drift slowly 
westward over the next couple of days. As the ridge weakens and 
retreats westward, Danielle should begin moving northeastward 
more-typical mid-latitude flow by Monday. Then, the cyclone is 
forecast to gradually accelerate northeastward during the middle of 
next week. The track guidance has shifted considerably to the left 
this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in 
this direction, toward the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA).

The upwelling of cooler water underneath slow-moving Danielle is 
likely to prevent much strengthening in the near term. However, the 
deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak for the next couple of 
days. So, there is still potential for a bit of strengthening if the 
cyclone is able to drift farther west of its current position. By 
72 h, Danielle is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and move into 
a more highly-sheared environment, which is expected to induce a 
weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one and 
lies near or just below the various model consensus aids. Around day 
5, Danielle is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough and 
begin the process of extratropical transition.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 37.9N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 38.0N  43.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 38.1N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 38.3N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 39.0N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 39.6N  43.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 41.5N  41.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 43.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

 

[StretchCT]

Goodnight Danielle

[clm]

Staying in same area for a few days.  Danielle reminds me of my wife shopping in a store.  Up and down every aisle with most of those containing what we don't use or need at the moment.

[clm]

Now at 70 mph.  Back to TS status

[StretchCT]

Danielle upwelled some of her own cooler water resulting in the drop to TS.  NHC expects her to regain hurricane strength in 24 hrs. 
 

Spoiler

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022 Satellite images indicate that Danielle has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm is still producing bands of deep convection, especially on its north side, but there are dry slots that have entrained into the south side of the circulation. The Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55 to 65 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Danielle has been moving very slowly to the west-northwest at 2 kt and is back over the same location where it was 24-36 hours ago. A continued slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight as the storm remains steered by a blocking ridge to its north. However, a sharp turn to the north is forecast on Sunday followed by a faster motion to the northeast after that as a trough currently over eastern Canada approaches Danielle. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is a fair amount of spread on where and how sharply the storm is expected to turn. The NHC track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one in the short term, but ends up near the previous forecast from 48 to 120 h, and it lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Danielle has been over its own cool SSTs wake during the past 12-18 hours, which possibly caused the observed slight weakening. However, as the storm pulls away from that area and remains in generally favorable atmospheric conditions, Danielle will likely restrengthen during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in shear should cause some weakening. Danielle is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period when it merges with the approaching trough and moves over SSTs near 20C. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 38.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 38.2N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 38.4N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 39.7N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 40.6N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 41.5N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 43.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 46.8N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Iceresistance]

More like restrengthening again.

 

Hurricane once again

[Iceresistance]

Danielle is now at 80 mph and 983 MB

[StretchCT]

Danielle is starting her weakening.  Not a quick one per NHC disco

Spoiler

300 PM GMT Mon Sep 05 2022

Danielle's satellite presentation has degraded since this morning. 
Cloud tops have warmed and its eye-like feature is not very well 
defined anymore. The hurricane has reached a relatively cool part 
of the Gulf Stream, which could be a main factor in its apparent 
weakening. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and 
UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) have decreased, so the initial 
intensity has been lowered conservatively to 75 kt, which is at the 
high end of the estimates.

The lower initial intensity has also contributed to a lower 
intensity forecast, but the idea is generally the same. Danielle 
should slowly weaken during the next few days as it continues 
northeastward over marginally warm waters. The exact timing of the 
cyclone's upcoming extratropical transition is still uncertain, but 
most models indicate it should complete the process on or by 
Thursday. Further weakening is expected by all global models after 
that time, which continues to be reflected in the NHC forecast.

Negligible change was made to the portion of the track forecast when 
Danielle is expected to be a tropical cyclone. The hurricane is 
forecast to move generally northeastward today and 
east-northeastward through the middle of the week, steered by a 
mid-latitude system approaching from the northwest. At the end of 
the forecast period, most global models now suggest Danielle could 
make a sharp northward turn as an extratropical cyclone. This would 
represent a significant change to the day 4-5 forecast, so I would 
prefer to see if that stays consistent for another cycle of model 
runs before making too big of a change. The official track forecast 
is therefore very close to the multi-model consensus through 72 h, 
but is notably to the south and east of the consensus at days 4 and 
5, That said, it has still been adjusted to the northwest of the 
previous forecast at those times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 40.2N  43.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 41.1N  43.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 41.9N  41.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 42.5N  39.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 43.4N  36.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 44.7N  33.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 46.3N  30.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1200Z 49.5N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 52.0N  21.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 

[Iceresistance]

65 mpg???

[StretchCT]

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

65 mpg???

hybrid

[Iceresistance]

44 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

hybrid

Does that mean that Danielle has 65 mpg on fuel?