Moderators StretchCT Posted July 26, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 26, 2022 (edited) Spoiler Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANK... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 102.4W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 102.4 West. Frank is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). TS Frank was named this morning. Frank should develop into a hurricane eventually. Currently, easterly shear is keeping it from developing rapidly but should ease hrs 48-72hrs when the center should be over SSTs of 29C. NHC has the peak winds at 90mph at the 120hr mark. Frank should not be a concern other than to mariners. NIT 26/0900Z 11.4N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 11.8N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 12.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 12.2N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 12.5N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 12.8N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 13.3N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH Edited August 1, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 27, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 27, 2022 Frank still a TS, no increase in strength but is still expected to make it to hurricane. Beven is not ruling out some rapid intensification as shear relaxes in 24-72 hrs. Spoiler Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Frank continues to feel the effects of about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center remaining just northeast of the current convective burst. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-40 kt range, and these have changed little since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The global models suggest that the current shear should ease over the next 12-24 h and allow Frank to gradually strengthen. Between 24-72 h, the shear is forecast to become light while the cyclone is over 28-29C sea surface temperatures, and this environment could allow for steady, and possible rapid, intensification. The forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is unchanged from the previous forecast due to uncertainty as to whether Frank will have a good enough structure to rapidly intensify. However, this is in the middle of the intensity guidance and could be conservative. After 72 h, Frank should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this should cause weakening. Frank is wobbling between a westward and west-northwestward motion with the current motion of 285/9. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Frank generally westward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion from 36-72 h. After that time, the cyclone is expected to moved more northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by by a mid- to upper-level trough developing over the Pacific west of California. The new official forecast rack is similar to the previous track through 60 h, and then is nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast in response to a northward shift of the guidance. The new forecast is close to or a little south of the various consensus models. It should be noted that Frank and the newly-formed Tropical Depression Eight-E are likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global models suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and that the depression will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 12.4N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 12.7N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 13.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 15.0N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven But official forecast doesn't really consider RI - interestingly another TD formed out in front of it. I'm only doing named storms though for non land threatening pacific storms. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 12.4N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 12.7N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 13.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 15.0N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 27, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 27, 2022 Actually 8 looks pretty good. Frank is just out of frame so next post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 27, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 27, 2022 Can easily see the shear, especially compared to 8 which isn't too far ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 28, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 28, 2022 Frank at 50mph and 1000mb this morning. Still waiting for shear to lift Latest forecast does make it to 105mph. INIT 28/0900Z 12.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 13.3N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 14.9N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 16.0N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 20.7N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 22.7N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH Interaction with Georgette is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 29, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 29, 2022 Frank up to 65mph and expected to be a hurricane later today. Per disco, dry air entrainment and poor inner core has been inhibiting rapid intensification. Shear is now relaxed enough to have that happen once the core is better organized. WS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 ...FRANK'S STRENGTHENING TAKES A PAUSE... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 112.2W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 13.6N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 16.8N 117.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 18.0N 118.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 20.4N 122.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 22.8N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 25.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 29, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 29, 2022 Frank looks improved, Georgette not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 31, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 31, 2022 This is from last night, Frank is a hurricane Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 ...FRANK IS NOW A HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 114.8W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 31, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 31, 2022 Frank is currently at peak of 90mph. He'll be moving over colder water tomorrow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.2N 117.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 19.5N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 20.8N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 22.1N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 23.5N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 24.9N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 27.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 29.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven Frank says goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 31, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 31, 2022 Frank beginning to fade away Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 ...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 119.3W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted August 1, 2022 Interesting track😲 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted August 1, 2022 Frank weakened to a TS overnight Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 ...FRANK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 121.5W ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 121.5 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Frank should become a post-tropical cyclone by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted August 1, 2022 Frank down to 65mph SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 122.6W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES Frank is expected to dissipate as it heads north off the CA coast. Some models still have parts of it making it to land. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 22.4N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted August 1, 2022 Still wouldn't want to mess with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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