Major Hurricane Bonnie | 40mph 1009mb | peak 115mph 964mb | post tropical

[StretchCT]

 

 

Info from the discussion involving the keeping of Bonnie's name.  Thus meaning the EPAC has two B systems this year. She is forecast to be a hurricane, but not affect land as such.

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is 
expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to 
that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to 
retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific 
later today.  The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued 
under the same Atlantic header as before.  Product headers will 
change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete 
advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from 
AL022022 to EP042022.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 11.3N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER LAKE NICARAGUA
 12H  02/1800Z 11.3N  87.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 24H  03/0600Z 11.5N  89.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 12.0N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 13.0N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 13.9N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Sunset Sat

[StretchCT]

Looking pretty good.  Currently 65mph, but forecast to 75 by 0z.  Max out at 100mph.

Spoiler

WTPZ44 KNHC 031435
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images 
show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of 
lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave 
data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established, 
with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest 
Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and 
the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data.

The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly 
shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or 
so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist 
air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen 
through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the 
SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring 
within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly 
shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the 
system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and 
perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a 
faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short 
term, but is otherwise unchanged.   

Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A 
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie 
westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in 
good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various 
consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for 
Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there 
should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the 
track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this 
coastline.

The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the 
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and 
southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 11.9N  92.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 12.5N  94.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 13.3N  97.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Bonnie continues to strengthen to a 100mph hurricane.  There is room for more strengthening, even to major status (see spoiler) 

4:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 4
Location: 13.9°N 100.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
 

Spoiler

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Bonnie continues to strengthen and it has a become a fairly well 
organized hurricane. Visible satellite images show a distinct eye 
and inner core, and outer bands continue to become better 
established. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 4.5/77 kt 
and 5.0/90 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and the initial 
intensity is nudged up to 85 kt based on that data.

Bonnie has been on a steady strengthening trend since it emerged 
over the eastern Pacific a couple of days ago, and it could 
strengthen some more through tonight. Although none of the 
intensity models show Bonnie reaching major hurricane status, it 
seems like a possibility given recent trends. However, by early 
Tuesday, the models suggest that the intensification trend will 
likely plateau as northeasterly shear is expected to increase to the 
15-20 kt range. The shear is expected to let up beginning Wednesday, 
but Bonnie will be tracking over progressively cooler waters, 
especially late in the period. The net result seems to suggest 
little change in strength from 12-72 hours, followed by steady 
weakening once Bonnie moves over sub 26C waters and into a drier 
air mass in about 4 days. This forecast lies at the high end of the 
guidance in the short term, but is near the consensus aids beyond 48 
hours.

The hurricane is moving westward at 15 kt on the south-southwest
side of a deep-layer ridge. Since the subtropical ridge is
expected to build westward, this should keep Bonnie on a west to
west-northwest path during the next several days. There is some
speed, or along-track, differences in the models, but they all show
a similar theme. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and near the various consensus models.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 13.9N 100.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 15.1N 104.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 16.1N 111.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[StretchCT]

Sat

[StretchCT]

Up to 105mph and down to 973 mb

4:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 5
Location: 15.1°N 103.2°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Forecast to strengthen just a bit more then weaken

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 15.1N 103.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 15.5N 105.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 15.9N 107.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 16.2N 109.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 16.5N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 20.0N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

[StretchCT]

Wow, solid strengthening.  Now a major hurricane.

 

urricane Bonnie Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...BONNIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FIRST OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 104.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 

Edited July 5, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Still 100kts/115mph

[StretchCT]

Bonnie down to 90mph 980 mb

3:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 7
Location: 17.1°N 112.5°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
 

[StretchCT]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 ...BONNIE'S LONG VOYAGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ENDS AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 129.4W ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.