Moderators StretchCT Posted July 1, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 1, 2022 (edited) Due to the close in nature of this one and high rainfall, thought I'd throw this on here Near the Southeastern US: Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the next day or so. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through tonight and into Saturday. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast office for more details. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Might make it to TS on the few models that have it. Crawls along the coast, hence the rain amounts Nothing too exciting on the globals Edited July 2, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2, 2022 So much for 10%... TS Colin is born this morning. Not much of a wind threat. Might be a lot of rain though. Spoiler Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the northeast of Charleston. Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids. Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western Atlantic soon after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2, 2022 "losing organization" per 5pm advisory and discussion. 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...COLIN LOSING ORGANIZATION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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