TS Colin | 40mph 1014mb | Are you kidding me?

[StretchCT]

Due to the close in nature of this one and high rainfall, thought I'd throw this on here

Near the Southeastern US:
Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate 
that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of 
Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and 
development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it 
drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the 
next day or so.  Regardless of development, this system is 
expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding 
across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through 
tonight and into Saturday.  See products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast 
office for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

 

 

Might make it to TS on the few models that have it.

Crawls along the coast, hence the rain amounts

Nothing too exciting on the globals

Edited July 2, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

So much for 10%... TS Colin is born this morning.  Not much of a wind threat. Might be a lot of rain though.

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just 
offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland 
across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening.  Deep 
convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and 
has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 
hours.  In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 
02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had 
developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina.  As a 
result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed 
near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the 
northeast of Charleston.
 
Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a
motion of 045/7 kt.  A low- to mid-level area of high pressure
is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during
the next 48 hours.  The bulk of the available track guidance
suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the
coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the
NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA
consensus aids.
 
Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue 
affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear 
increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours.  As a result, strengthening 
is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared 
tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, 
with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast 
of the center.  Colin is likely to dissipate over the western 
Atlantic soon after 48 hours.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning
and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the
North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.
 
2.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 33.2N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  02/1800Z 33.9N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/0600Z 34.8N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/1800Z 35.7N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
 48H  04/0600Z 36.8N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[StretchCT]

"losing organization" per 5pm advisory and discussion.

500 PM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...COLIN LOSING ORGANIZATION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES