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July 1-21, 2022 | Ring of Fire/MCS Outbreak Sequence


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  • Meteorologist

I know we don't talk much about the Typhoon rule/EAR much anymore so this may come across as cherrypicking or whatever and that's fine, but I just saw that Japan (Tokyo I think) just broke its highest June temperature on record. Might be looking at a mid-July heat wave here.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • Meteorologist

Even the next 3 days is pretty convincing for severe potential via NAM. Relying on EHI for assuming severe potential isn't as good as relying on supercell composite because it doesn't involve speed shear or CINH, but it's still a pretty good indicator most of the time.


Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   A large-scale upper ridge is forecast to build and persist over much
   of the central CONUS through the extended forecast period. Organized
   severe convective potential each day will likely remain tied to
   multiple low-amplitude perturbations aloft rotating around the
   northern periphery of the upper ridge, mainly from the northern
   Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. One such feature may
   focus some severe potential across parts of the northern Rockies and
   adjacent High Plains on Day 4/Monday.

   Rich low-level moisture and moderate to locally strong instability
   should be present in a narrow corridor from the northern Plains into
   the Midwest and OH Valley. Depending on the evolution of the subtle
   mid-level shortwave troughs, multiple MCS/bowing clusters moving
   east-southeastward along the instability axis appear possible most
   days next week. If these bowing complexes develop, then
   severe/damaging winds would be the main threat. Trying to time the
   placement of the subtle shortwave troughs and related convection is
   difficult at this extended time frame, with limited predictability
   overall. Still, if a signal for robust convective development
   becomes clearer in medium-range guidance, then one or more 15%
   severe areas may ultimately be needed.

   ..Gleason.. 07/01/2022



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  • The title was changed to July 1-?, 2022 | NW Flow/MCS Outbreak Sequence

ILN AFD for today and then in the long term section they talk about a northwest flow pattern setting up favorable for MCS.

National Weather Service Wilmington OH
343 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

Periods of showers and storms expected through Friday night as a
cold front slides through the region. The front stalls south of
the Ohio River and has trended further south, lowering
precipitation chances over the weekend. Front begins to lift
back northward Monday, increasing chances for precipitation by
Monday night, with chances for showers and storms continuing
into the next work week as the front stalls across the Ohio


Radar imagery at 3:30 PM shows isolated to scattered showers and
storms continuing to move across portions of northern KY and
the Scioto Valley along a theta-e plume. Isolated to scattered
convection remains possible ahead of the cold front, primarily
along/SE of I-71.

The SPC has the ILN fa in a Marginal Risk for severe weather,
which covers the majority of Ohio, as well as our eastern IN
counties. Instability levels continue to increase throughout the
afternoon - MLCAPE values are currently around 1000-1500 J/kg,
with some pockets nearing 2000 J/kg. The highest CAPE values
remain along/southeast of I-71. Steep low-level lapse rates of
8-9 C/km have also developed, aiding in the potential for hail
development in thunderstorms. With DCAPE values also exceeding
1000 J/kg, any storms that develop during the daytime hours have
the potential for producing strong, damaging winds from
downbursts. Overall, coverage in storms this afternoon should
remain isolated to scattered, but may increase by the early

There are a couple of limiting factors with the severe potential
today however. The first is wind shear - with bulk shear values
generally peaking around 25 kts (and sfc-3km shear only around 20
kts), storms will have a hard time remaining organized. The
second (and arguably more substantial) limiting factor is the
timing of storms along the cold front in our fa. It appears from
latest hi-res models that the cold front is slower in its
southeastward progression tonight. Storms along the actual cold
front don`t seem to enter our CWA until closer to midnight,
although once again, a few isolated storms may still initiate
ahead of the main line of storms. Hi-res models suggest that the
line of storms will be lower in their intensity as they
progress southward tonight. This is mainly driven by weakening
instability values, as well as a low-level inversion that forms
and forces the storms to become more elevated. While models do
suggest modest bulk wind shear improvement (increasing 5-10
kts), the threat for a severe thunderstorms still seems limited
given the waning instability and non-surface based storms.

One final note...Hi-res models do suggest that there could be a
pre-frontal line of storms that develops this evening
along/near I-71. This could impact the metro areas of Columbus
and Cincinnati starting around 8PM and continuing into the late
evening hours (it appears to remain just SSE of Dayton). With
the environment still maintaining most of its instability and
storms generally remaining more surface-based, this timeframe
will be something to monitor closely.


Coverage in showers expected to be greatest along/south of the
Ohio River Saturday morning before pushing even further south
into KY. Models seem to favor a more southward progression of
the cold front down into south-central KY on Saturday. If this
holds, majority of our counties should end up remaining dry now
on Saturday. Best chances for isolated storms to develop would
be along/south of the Ohio River.

Locations along/NW of I-71 expected to have a more pleasant day
with dewpoints dipping below 60 degrees in the afternoon,
lowering the humidity levels. High temperatures across the CWA
will generally peak in the mid-80s.

Forecast continues to trend dry Saturday night for majority of
the fa, but cloud coverage is expected to increase and provide
mild overnight lows in the mid-60s.


Old frontal boundary will extend from central Indiana into eastern
Kentucky at the beginning of the period. Some convection may develop
along and north of this on Sunday. So have kept some diurnal low
chance PoPs near and south of the Ohio River.

Boundary will likely dissipate by Monday and air mass will be in the
process of moistening. Cannot completely rule out a few storms, but
with weak forcing the chance is rather low.

Northwest flow aloft will become established along with a wavy front
extending from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes.
This will be a favorable pattern for MCSs to roll into the region.
Obviously details are not clear, but it looks like a convectively
active period with chances of showers and thunderstorms from Monday
night onwards.

Temperatures will be above normal through the period.



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  • Meteorologist
43 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

ILN AFD for today and then in the long term section they talk about a northwest flow pattern setting up favorable for MCS.


Finally getting a favorable pattern. Should be fun

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1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Just went outside to roll up my cars windows. Nearly non-stop thunder from the storms to my north. Saw a lot of cloud-to-cloud lightning coming from the cumulonimbus.

Been getting the thunder but just finally started raining.

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