Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted June 30, 2022 (edited) GEFS/EPS shows a pretty solid signature for NW flow in early July through the Midwest/Great Lakes/OV. Edited July 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 30, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 30, 2022 Pretty active severe weather pattern coming up. Note this is EHI, not supercell composite, because it's not really supercell season anymore and the supercell maps don't really do the pattern justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 30, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 30, 2022 This is 18z GFS, the above post is 12z. But you can really see the disturbances ride the ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 30, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 30, 2022 (edited) I know we don't talk much about the Typhoon rule/EAR much anymore so this may come across as cherrypicking or whatever and that's fine, but I just saw that Japan (Tokyo I think) just broke its highest June temperature on record. Might be looking at a mid-July heat wave here. Edited June 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 1, 2022 (edited) Even the next 3 days is pretty convincing for severe potential via NAM. Relying on EHI for assuming severe potential isn't as good as relying on supercell composite because it doesn't involve speed shear or CINH, but it's still a pretty good indicator most of the time. Edited July 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Quote Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper ridge is forecast to build and persist over much of the central CONUS through the extended forecast period. Organized severe convective potential each day will likely remain tied to multiple low-amplitude perturbations aloft rotating around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, mainly from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. One such feature may focus some severe potential across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Day 4/Monday. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to locally strong instability should be present in a narrow corridor from the northern Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Depending on the evolution of the subtle mid-level shortwave troughs, multiple MCS/bowing clusters moving east-southeastward along the instability axis appear possible most days next week. If these bowing complexes develop, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat. Trying to time the placement of the subtle shortwave troughs and related convection is difficult at this extended time frame, with limited predictability overall. Still, if a signal for robust convective development becomes clearer in medium-range guidance, then one or more 15% severe areas may ultimately be needed. ..Gleason.. 07/01/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Marginal risk for most of the OV today now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 ILN AFD for today and then in the long term section they talk about a northwest flow pattern setting up favorable for MCS. Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 343 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of showers and storms expected through Friday night as a cold front slides through the region. The front stalls south of the Ohio River and has trended further south, lowering precipitation chances over the weekend. Front begins to lift back northward Monday, increasing chances for precipitation by Monday night, with chances for showers and storms continuing into the next work week as the front stalls across the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Radar imagery at 3:30 PM shows isolated to scattered showers and storms continuing to move across portions of northern KY and the Scioto Valley along a theta-e plume. Isolated to scattered convection remains possible ahead of the cold front, primarily along/SE of I-71. The SPC has the ILN fa in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, which covers the majority of Ohio, as well as our eastern IN counties. Instability levels continue to increase throughout the afternoon - MLCAPE values are currently around 1000-1500 J/kg, with some pockets nearing 2000 J/kg. The highest CAPE values remain along/southeast of I-71. Steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km have also developed, aiding in the potential for hail development in thunderstorms. With DCAPE values also exceeding 1000 J/kg, any storms that develop during the daytime hours have the potential for producing strong, damaging winds from downbursts. Overall, coverage in storms this afternoon should remain isolated to scattered, but may increase by the early evening. There are a couple of limiting factors with the severe potential today however. The first is wind shear - with bulk shear values generally peaking around 25 kts (and sfc-3km shear only around 20 kts), storms will have a hard time remaining organized. The second (and arguably more substantial) limiting factor is the timing of storms along the cold front in our fa. It appears from latest hi-res models that the cold front is slower in its southeastward progression tonight. Storms along the actual cold front don`t seem to enter our CWA until closer to midnight, although once again, a few isolated storms may still initiate ahead of the main line of storms. Hi-res models suggest that the line of storms will be lower in their intensity as they progress southward tonight. This is mainly driven by weakening instability values, as well as a low-level inversion that forms and forces the storms to become more elevated. While models do suggest modest bulk wind shear improvement (increasing 5-10 kts), the threat for a severe thunderstorms still seems limited given the waning instability and non-surface based storms. One final note...Hi-res models do suggest that there could be a pre-frontal line of storms that develops this evening along/near I-71. This could impact the metro areas of Columbus and Cincinnati starting around 8PM and continuing into the late evening hours (it appears to remain just SSE of Dayton). With the environment still maintaining most of its instability and storms generally remaining more surface-based, this timeframe will be something to monitor closely. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Coverage in showers expected to be greatest along/south of the Ohio River Saturday morning before pushing even further south into KY. Models seem to favor a more southward progression of the cold front down into south-central KY on Saturday. If this holds, majority of our counties should end up remaining dry now on Saturday. Best chances for isolated storms to develop would be along/south of the Ohio River. Locations along/NW of I-71 expected to have a more pleasant day with dewpoints dipping below 60 degrees in the afternoon, lowering the humidity levels. High temperatures across the CWA will generally peak in the mid-80s. Forecast continues to trend dry Saturday night for majority of the fa, but cloud coverage is expected to increase and provide mild overnight lows in the mid-60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Old frontal boundary will extend from central Indiana into eastern Kentucky at the beginning of the period. Some convection may develop along and north of this on Sunday. So have kept some diurnal low chance PoPs near and south of the Ohio River. Boundary will likely dissipate by Monday and air mass will be in the process of moistening. Cannot completely rule out a few storms, but with weak forcing the chance is rather low. Northwest flow aloft will become established along with a wavy front extending from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. This will be a favorable pattern for MCSs to roll into the region. Obviously details are not clear, but it looks like a convectively active period with chances of showers and thunderstorms from Monday night onwards. Temperatures will be above normal through the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 1, 2022 43 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: ILN AFD for today and then in the long term section they talk about a northwest flow pattern setting up favorable for MCS. Finally getting a favorable pattern. Should be fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Appears to be some storms getting going around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Storms developing just west of here basically filling in the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Storms developing just west of here basically filling in the line. Finally some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Finally some rain and thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 2, 2022 Just went outside to roll up my cars windows. Nearly non-stop thunder from the storms to my north. Saw a lot of cloud-to-cloud lightning coming from the cumulonimbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Just went outside to roll up my cars windows. Nearly non-stop thunder from the storms to my north. Saw a lot of cloud-to-cloud lightning coming from the cumulonimbus. Been getting the thunder but just finally started raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) Downdraft just southwest of Dayton visible on radar Edited July 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Pouring rain and strong winds here now maybe 40+ mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Pretty intense and still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) Ditto here. Good lightning rates too. Just had the strongest burst of rain/wind here. Love it ...and pea sized hail Edited July 2, 2022 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) Looking good for some rain training. Had a lightning strike 8/10th of a mile from me. Edited July 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Got some of the rain and thunder. Not as much as others. Also jealous of those south of me. Hearing a lot of thunder to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Dad just called me lives in Kettering and he was getting small hail there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Still pouring here. Seem to be on the northern fringe of the training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Lovely storms tonight. Got the butts on the smoker just in time!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) Finally under some heavy rain with lightning Edited July 2, 2022 by Bman10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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