TS Celia | 45mph 1002mb | weakening

[StretchCT]

TS Celia was formed today 

Not forecast to affect land other than the current rain and some high surf.  Also not forecast to develop into a hurricane within the next 4-5 days.  Although the models are clearly having trouble with this one as noted in the disco.

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The satellite presentation of the system has improved somewhat this morning, with a well-defined band in its western semicircle and some deep convection persisting near and just west of the estimated center. Subjective intensity estimates are up to 35 kt from SAB and 45 kt from TAFB, while the most recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS were in the 40-45 kt range. There were also a few wind retrievals from overnight scatterometer imagery in the 34-36 kt range. The initial intensity has been set to a possibly conservative 35 kt for this advisory, upgrading Tropical Depression Three-E to Tropical Storm Celia. Celia still appears to be drifting generally northward, with the initial motion estimated at 020/4 kt. As discussed in the prior advisory, the storm is currently embedded within weak steering currents as a result of being a small vortex embedded within a much broader low-level cyclonic circulation centered over Central America, causing Celia to drift just east of due north over the past 12-18 hours. Possibly due to this small size, the model guidance does not have a good handle on the current position or structure of the cyclone. For example, the latest GFS run places Celia about 150 nm west of its actual position. The latest ECMWF run was closer to the correct position but barely depicts Celia as a distinct entity within the larger gyre circulation. Even the higher-resolution regional hurricane models are struggling to depict this cyclone. Given these difficulties, the short-term track forecast is quite problematic, with the track guidance spread more than double the typical climatological value in the 24-48 hour period. Generally the guidance has shifted further south this cycle, when Celia is expected to be steered by a building mid-level ridge and perhaps some low-level flow enhanced by a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The track forecast this advisory follows suit, and is further south than the previous advisory after 36 hours, but still is not as far south as the reliable consensus aids. Given all the complicating factors above, this track forecast is of low confidence. The substantial uncertainty in the track forecast also applies to the current intensity forecast with Celia. Easterly vertical wind shear is already starting to increase over the system, as suggested by both GFS- and ECMWF- based SHIPS guidance, and is forecast to be above 20 kt in 24-36 hours. The GFS model, which seems to be best capturing Celia's current structure, quickly shears off the current deep convection to the east due to the increasing upper-level flow. In addition, current sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) under the cyclone are already marginal (26-27 C) and could cool further over the next 36 hours given Celia's slow motion. The intensity guidance this cycle is lower than the previous one for the first 48-72 hours, and only some slight additional intensification is anticipated before these negative factors limit Celia's intensity. Towards the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to decrease and SSTs warm, which could provide an opportunity for the storm to began intensifying again. However, it is also possible the negative factors indicated above may result in Celia weakening or degenerating into a remnant low, devoid of organized convection, as suggested by the ECMWF solution. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash floodin

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

The satellite presentation of the system has improved somewhat this 
morning, with a well-defined band in its western semicircle and 
some deep convection persisting near and just west of the 
estimated center. Subjective intensity estimates are up to 35 kt 
from SAB and 45 kt from TAFB, while the most recent objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS were in the 40-45 kt range. There 
were also a few wind retrievals from overnight scatterometer 
imagery in the 34-36 kt range. The initial intensity has been set to 
a possibly conservative 35 kt for this advisory, upgrading Tropical 
Depression Three-E to Tropical Storm Celia.

Celia still appears to be drifting generally northward, with the 
initial motion estimated at 020/4 kt. As discussed in the prior 
advisory, the storm is currently embedded within weak steering 
currents as a result of being a small vortex embedded within a much 
broader low-level cyclonic circulation centered over Central 
America, causing Celia to drift just east of due north over the past 
12-18 hours. Possibly due to this small size, the model guidance 
does not have a good handle on the current position or structure of 
the cyclone. For example, the latest GFS run places Celia about 150 
nm west of its actual position. The latest ECMWF run was closer to 
the correct position but barely depicts Celia as a distinct entity 
within the larger gyre circulation. Even the higher-resolution 
regional hurricane models are struggling to depict this cyclone. 
Given these difficulties, the short-term track forecast is quite 
problematic, with the track guidance spread more than double the 
typical climatological value in the 24-48 hour period. Generally the 
guidance has shifted further south this cycle, when Celia is 
expected to be steered by a building mid-level ridge and perhaps 
some low-level flow enhanced by a gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. The track forecast this advisory follows suit, and is 
further south than the previous advisory after 36 hours, but still 
is not as far south as the reliable consensus aids.  Given all the 
complicating factors above, this track forecast is of low 
confidence. 

The substantial uncertainty in the track forecast also applies to 
the current intensity forecast with Celia. Easterly vertical wind 
shear is already starting to increase over the system, as suggested 
by both GFS- and ECMWF- based SHIPS guidance, and is forecast to be 
above 20 kt in 24-36 hours. The GFS model, which seems to be best 
capturing Celia's current structure, quickly shears off the current 
deep convection to the east due to the increasing upper-level flow. 
In addition, current sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) under the 
cyclone are already marginal (26-27 C) and could cool further over 
the next 36 hours given Celia's slow motion. The intensity guidance 
this cycle is lower than the previous one for the first 48-72 hours, 
and only some slight additional intensification is anticipated 
before these negative factors limit Celia's intensity. Towards the 
end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to decrease and 
SSTs warm, which could provide an opportunity for the storm to began 
intensifying again. However, it is also possible the negative 
factors indicated above may result in Celia weakening or 
degenerating into a remnant low, devoid of organized convection, as 
suggested by the ECMWF solution.

Key Messages:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track 
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador 
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash 
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and 
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. 
While Celia is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of 
the current forecast track, or increase in size could require a 
tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 11.6N  89.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 11.8N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 12.1N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 12.2N  90.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 12.2N  90.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 11.9N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 11.7N  94.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 12.2N  98.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 13.0N 102.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

 

Edited June 27, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Celia downgraded to a depression but expected to regain strength once it is clear of the current eastern vertical shear.  Just sitting there getting tops blown off, drifting north maybe?

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
 
Overall the satellite presentation of Celia is a bit less
impressive this afternoon, with the deepest convective cloud tops
starting to become increasingly displaced from the low-level
circulation center, which is now partially exposed to the east
of the convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates for 1800
UTC were unchanged from SAB (T2.5/35 kt) and TAFB (T4.0/45 kt) from
this morning, though objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique (ADT) and SATCON have decreased some this
afternoon. Unfortunately this afternoon's scatterometer swaths
missed Celia's small wind field. The initial intensity will
remain 35 kt for this advisory.
 
The northward drift with Celia continues, with the latest motion
estimated at 360/3 kt. As mentioned over the past day, Celia
remains under light and variable steering flow on the south side of
a broader monsoonal circulation parked over Central America. This
broad low-level circulation should gradually break down as a
pronounced mid-level ridge centered over the southern US amplifies
and extends westward over Mexico. This changing synoptic pattern
should result in Celia turning westward or even west-southwestward 
as it also gradually accelerates over the next 2-3 days. While there
remains larger-than-average spread in the track guidance this
afternoon, especially in the across-track direction, this general
evolution is favored. The latest NHC track forecast is just a touch
further south and faster compared to the previous advisory, and now
lies pretty near the HCCA consensus aid.
 
Celia's intensity may have already peaked earlier this morning, as 
easterly vertical wind shear now appears to be displacing the 
convection further west which is decreasing in overall intensity as 
cloud tops warm. SHIPS guidance suggests the current shear will only 
increase further over the next 24 hours, and Celia is no longer 
expected to intensify further in the short-term. Assuming the 
tropical cyclone survives the relatively hostile environment 
forecast over the next several days, shear is expected to decrease 
towards the end of the forecast period as it moves towards warmer 
ocean waters (28-29 C). Therefore, intensification could resume by 
early next week. The latest intensity forecast is a bit lower than 
this morning, but still remains above most of the guidance over the 
next 48 hours. Thereafter, some gradual intensification is shown, 
roughly splitting the difference between the HCCA and IVCN 
consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.
 
2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While Celia is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of
the current forecast track, or increase in size could require a
tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 11.8N  89.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 12.1N  89.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 12.3N  89.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 12.2N  90.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 11.8N  92.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 11.5N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 11.6N  95.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 12.5N 100.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 13.7N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 

Edited June 18, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Celia has been bouncing around the TD/TS threshold and is expected to become a TS again today and hurricane later on.

[StretchCT]

Celia back to TS strength at 40mph, 1004mb.  The shear is expected to wane this evening and eventually it's expected to reach hurricane w

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

The organization of Celia has not changed significantly based 
on satellite imagery since the last advisory.  A couple of recent 
scatterometer passes showed an elongated low-level circulation on 
the northeastern edge of a convective burst, likely due to the 
effects of the moderate northeasterly shear.  Dvorak intensity 
estimates range between 35 and 45 kt, and with no increase in the 
organization of the cloud pattern in the past several hours, the 
initial intensity estimate remains 40 kt.  Data from the 
scatterometer overpasses suggest that this may be a generous 
intensity estimate, however.

Celia continues to move west-northwestward at 295/11 kt along the 
southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern 
United States.  This ridge is expected to continue to steer the 
tropical cyclone west-northwestward with a gradual decrease in 
forward speed through the forecast period.  The track forecast 
models have come into better agreement, however there are still 
some discrepancies over the speed at which Celia will move during 
the next several days.  The official track forecast is in very good 
agreement with the previous NHC prediction and remains close to the 
dynamical model consensus.

Based on the dynamical guidance, the moderate shear over the 
tropical storm is expected to persist today before decreasing this 
evening.  Since other environmental factors are already conducive 
for intensification, Celia is expected strengthen to a hurricane 
within the next 48 hours.  The official intensity forecast is near 
or above the intensity model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 13.4N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 14.0N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 14.9N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 15.7N 107.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 16.8N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.4N 111.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 18.7N 114.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 19.8N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
 

 

[StretchCT]

Celia still a TS, forecast to H soon. Currently 60mph 997mb

[StretchCT]

This morning sat

[StretchCT]

ADT suggesting winds over 65kts now.

[btbucks]

Hopefully it can pump some more moisture into the Southwest.

[StretchCT]

TS Celia has likely peaked in strength.  Still looks well organized on vis but the coldest tops aren't organized well and are lacking.