Moderators StretchCT Posted June 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted June 17, 2022 (edited) Advisories started for TD Two on Tuesday June 14th BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National HurricaBULLETIN Tropical Depression Two-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 102.4W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHESne Center Miami FL EP022022 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 102.4W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Edited June 18, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 17, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 17, 2022 TD2 quickly upgraded to TS Blas in next advisory BULLETIN Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 102.1W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 102.1 West. Blas is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Little movement is expected today, follow by a more steady motion toward the west-northwest through mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Blas could become a hurricane late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inc In the discussion, Blas is forecast to hit 80kts. Spoiler Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone southwest of Mexico continues to become better organized, with plenty of banding in the eastern semicircle and increased central deep convection. Dvorak estmates have increased to 35-45 kt, and the initial wind speed is raised to 40 kt, making this system the second tropical storm of the season. The environment near Blas looks conducive for further intensification during the next couple of days, with very warm waters and generally light shear. However, increased northeasterly shear is likely to begin on Thursday due to a building upper-level anticyclone over Mexico. Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, mostly due to the initial wind speed, and the NHC intensity forecast matches that trend. Weakening should commence by the end of the week due to stronger shear and cooler waters. Blas is drifting northward, caught in an area of light steering beneath a distant mid-tropospheric low over northern Mexico. The tropical cyclone should move little today and then start moving to the west-northwest at a faster pace due to the low moving out and a ridge building over Mexico. This motion should take the system gradually away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Similar to the last cycle, although there is some spread in the models, especially in terms of forward speed, they generally agree on the overall scenario. This track forecast lies near the various consensus aids, a bit north of the last NHC track forecast. Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Bucci Forecast map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 17, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 17, 2022 Blas a Hurricane 24 hrs after being named Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 ...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 102.8W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES Forecast in Disco to be a 85kt hurricane Spoiler Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Since the prior advisory, the structure of Blas has continued to improve on both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. In fact, several SSMIS microwave passes indicate that Blas is developing an inner core, with at least a banding mid-level eye feature showing up on the 89-GHz channel. The latest 1200 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB. In addition, the most recent objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS have been quickly increasing with the latest estimate at T4.3/72 kt. A blend of the aforementioned data yields 65 kt for the advisory initial intensity, making Blas a hurricane. The center of Blas may have relocated a bit further south into the large overnight convective burst, but its mean motion this morning has continued a pronounced left turn, estimated at 290/4 kt. A continued west-northwest motion with some acceleration is anticipated over the next several days as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm continues to build in and extend westward ahead of Blas. Towards the end of the forecast, Blas is expected to become a shallow system, resulting in a slowing westward motion as the low-level flow exerts greater influence. The latest forecast track has been adjusted a bit south in the short-term based on the adjusted initial position , but ends up just north of the previous forecast by the end of the period, close to the center of the track guidance envelope. The most recent microwave images suggest that Blas is developing an inner core, which would likely support further intensification today as the system remains over warm (28-29 C) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) embedded in sufficently high mid-level moisture. A possible complicating factor is that both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates easterly shear increasing to 20-25 kt over the next 24-36 h. Assuming this does not play a major inhibiting factor, the latest NHC forecast indicates continued intensification and peaks Blas as category 2 hurricane in 24 h. After 36 h, Blas will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, moving over sub 26 C waters by 60 h. For this reason, weakening is anticipated to begin by Friday. At the end of the forecast period, Blas is likely to lose its deep-convective activity and become a shallow low-level vortex. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico beginning today and continuing through the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 17, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 17, 2022 Blas strengthens a bit today - may have peaked Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 ...BLAS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 109.0W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west are expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today and continue during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California later today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 17, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 17, 2022 Satellite near peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 18, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 18, 2022 Blas weakening Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 ...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 111.5W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.5 West. Blas is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should degenerate into a remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 18, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 18, 2022 Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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