Hurricane Agatha | Cat 2 Max 110mph 964mb | Dissipated

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Don't usually pay attention to Pac hurricanes, but this one deserved a mention.  This is the advisory the night before landfall. 

Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
 
...AGATHA EXPECTED TO BRING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 98.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

And the discussion

Spoiler

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

It seems like the rapid intensification of Agatha has finally 
leveled off.  Satellite images show that while the hurricane 
continues to have strong convection near the center, there is no 
real sign of an eye emerging.  In addition, recent microwave data 
has degraded some since this afternoon, although the small inner 
core is not easily resolved on most instruments.  The 00Z TAFB/SAB 
satellite classifications haven't changed from earlier, so the 
initial wind speed will stay 95 kt on this advisory.  Agatha still 
has about a day to intensify over very warm waters with light 
shear, and the hurricane should become a major hurricane before 
landfall late Monday.  Similar to last night, guidance has come 
down from the last cycle, but I'm not falling for it this time.  
The new forecast is primarily based on the last forecast and the 
overall conducive environment for strengthening up until landfall.

Agatha is finally moving to the northeast, estimated at 055/5 kt.  
The hurricane should continue moving to the northeast or 
east-northeast at a little faster rate as it becomes embedded in 
low- to mid-level southwesterly flow.  Model guidance has shifted 
slightly eastward since this afternoon, perhaps since the now 
vertically deeper hurricane could feel the upper-level westerlies 
more.  Regardless, almost all of the models show Agatha near the 
southern coast of the Mexican state of Oaxaca in about 24 hours, and 
the new forecast is nudged eastward to come into line with the 
latest consensus trackers.  After landfall, rapid weakening is 
forecast and Agatha is expected to dissipate over the high terrain 
of southern Mexico late Tuesday.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge
accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the
east of where Agatha makes landfall.
 
2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning there overnight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area on Monday.
 
3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha over portions of southern 
Mexico will continue through Tuesday. This rainfall will pose a 
threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 14.5N  98.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 14.9N  97.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 15.6N  96.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 16.7N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  01/0000Z 17.6N  94.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

 

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Discussion from the morning of landfall

Spoiler

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Outer rain bands continue to spread across southern Mexico as the core of Agatha closes in on the coast, and conditions will steadily worsen throughout the day in the state of Oaxaca. The satellite presentation of the system has been relatively steady state for the past several hours with hints of an eye occasionally appearing within the central dense overcast. Convection remains quite deep and symmetric around the center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at 5.0, and therefore, the initial intensity is again held at 95 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is nearing the system and the data it collects will be quite helpful in assessing the strength and structure of Agatha. Agatha is moving to the northeast at 7 kt, and this motion should take the core of the hurricane to the coast of Oaxaca this afternoon. Not much change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is expected to maintain its current intensity until the core reaches the coast later today. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast, and Agatha will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain of southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday. However, the global models suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broader low pressure system, which is being monitored for potential development in the Atlantic basin. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected near and to the east of where Agatha makes landfall. 2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon and continuing through this evening. Tropical storm conditions have already begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread eastward within the warning area through tonight. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 15.3N 97.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 15.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0000Z 17.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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Spoiler

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
400 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Agatha has made landfall along the 
coast of southern Mexico just west of Puerto Angel within the past 
half-hour.  The landfall intensity is estimated to have been 90 kt, 
which is based on several SFMR wind measurements from an Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft around midday and subjective and 
objective Dvorak intensity estimates.  It is worth noting that the 
minimum pressure decreased several millibars between the aircraft 
center passes, which coincided with the eye becoming more apparent 
in visible satellite imagery.  These data along with a 1747 UTC GMI 
microwave pass suggest Agatha may have completed an eyewall 
replacement cycle around that time. The initial intensity remains 90 
kt for this advisory, but rapid weakening should commence very soon 
as the core of the hurricane interacts with the mountainous terrain 
of southern Mexico.  Agatha is forecast to dissipate over 
southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.  The global models continue to 
suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broad low 
pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is some 
potential for development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or 
southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
 
Agatha remains on a northeastward heading at about 7 kt.  This
general motion should continue until dissipation occurs on Tuesday.
The updated NHC track forecast is once again near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge,
accompanied by large and destructive waves, will continue through 
this evening near and to the east of where Agatha made landfall.
 
2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will continue in portions
of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this evening.  
Tropical storm conditions will spread eastward within the warning 
area through tonight.
 
3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday.  This will pose a threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 15.7N  96.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 12H  31/0600Z 16.4N  95.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/1800Z 17.3N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  01/0600Z 18.0N  93.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Landfall discussion 4pm.  Mentions eyewall replacement

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She was the strongest storm to hit the west coast of Mexico in May on record and only the third hurricane to do so.   

11 dead so far. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/05/31/hurricane-agatha-dissipates-forecast-south-florida/7453744001/

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Satellite loop

 

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Visible loop - the moment the eye clears out is breathtaking

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by StretchCT