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April 15-17, 2022 | Storms/Severe Weather


ElectricStorm

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This shouldn't be anything like the last few systems, but it looks like the next system is about to move through starting tomorrow. 

For Friday we have a marginal risk up for all hazards. Moisture return and instability don't look good models tend to underestimate it a bit. HRRR shows a nice cluster of storms over NE OK/NW AR tomorrow evening, and I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to slight risk. 

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For Saturday, marginal risk up but I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk at some point. Will probably have some morning convection/cloud cover issues so it might limit the threat. 

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SPC mentioning some severe potential will likely be possible in the southern plains and southeast on Sun-Mon but no areas have been highlighted yet. Overall, this should be mostly small-scale events but we're at the point in the year where all of these will have to be watched. 

Edited by OKwx_2001
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  • The title was changed to April 15-18(?), 2022 | Storms/Severe Weather

The CIPS has severe storms possible for Texas tomorrow, Saturday, & Sunday before it tapers off for only a couple of days.

 

Then it comes back in Panhandle Texas on Next Wednesday, & with a vengeance in the southern plains next Thursday (April 21st, 2022)

1700022289_CIPSSevereWeather.png.053f45e48519b105c2d680253925bfd6.png

 

Edited by Iceresistance
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15z SREF has a 30% STP in Oklahoma & Arkansas

On College of Dupage, there's a legit chance that the CAPE levels will exceed 2000 J/kg in Oklahoma, I'm strongly thinking that this is likely going to be a very sneaky event.

EDIT: The 21z SREF now has 45% STP on 6z (Midnight?) in Oklahoma and Arkansas, does it appear to be an overnighter event?

Edited by Iceresistance
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  • Meteorologist

'tis the season of the most mediocre setups producing significant severe weather. In addition to the 15% hatched hail, SPC added 5% tornado.

At this point, I'm pretty sure I speak for all of the South when I say: I can't wait for the Southern ridge to take over. They need a break and those of us in the north have been deprived.

image.png.9c0638cbb4d117a6bb82b7530dfff82a.png

image.thumb.png.a06c3e04274969d507c7194665bea396.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • Meteorologist

image.png.24e25a0b8604a0abf981b2028d82dac9.png

   Mesoscale Discussion 0497
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

   Areas affected...Northeast OK...Northwest/North-Central AR...Far
   South MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 152002Z - 152200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The environment is becoming more favorable for the
   development of supercell thunderstorms. These supercells could pose
   a threat for all severe hazards, including very large hail and
   tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to rapidly spread
   northward ahead of the shortwave trough moving across central KS.
   Latest surface observations sampled 60 deg F surface dewpoints as
   far north of MLC in east-central OK. Mid 50s surface dewpoints
   reaching as far north as Tulsa County OK. This moisture advection is
   expected to persist throughout the remainder of the afternoon and
   into this evening. By 00Z, the expectation is that low 60s dewpoints
   will likely be near the OK/MO/AR border intersection. This low-level
   moisture coupled with cool mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -16
   deg C at 500mb) and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will
   support at least moderate instability. 

   Recent surface analysis shows a sharp warm front from far southeast
   KS southeastward across far southwest MO and north-central AR into
   east-central AR. Low-level convergence along this boundary coupled
   with subtle ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave and the
   destabilizing air mass to foster thunderstorm initiation. Low-level
   flow will likely remain southerly/southwesterly, but moderate to
   strong mid- and upper-level flow will still result in vertical
   profiles that support supercells with any updrafts that
   persist/mature. 

   All severe hazards will be possible with these supercells, including
   very large hail and tornadoes. Very large hail appears to be the
   most likely risk. The tornado risk will likely be maximized near the
   warm front, where low-level flow may be more backed. Additionally,
   forecast storm motion of any supercells is parallel to the warm
   front, suggesting that any cells that mature just south of warm
   front could remain in an area of favorable low-level shear for a
   notable duration. Given the potential for severe thunderstorm, a
   watch will likely be needed over portions of the region.

 

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1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

There's a Tornado warning in Northern Arkansas with Softball sized hail, why is that not being noticed here?

PDS warned actually.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
718 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

ARC049-065-075-121-135-160100-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220416T0100Z/
Randolph AR-Izard AR-Fulton AR-Lawrence AR-Sharp AR-
718 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...FULTON...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES...

At 717 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 7 miles northwest of Cherokee Village, moving east at 50 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and very large hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee Village...               Salem in Fulton County...
Ash Flat...                       Horseshoe Bend...
Highland in Sharp County...       Mammoth Spring...
Hardy...                          Imboden...
Ravenden...                       Ravenden Springs...
Ballard...                        Annieville...
Mammoth Spring State Park...      Smithville...
Williford...                      Agnos...
Armstrong...                      Heart...
Moko...                           Fryatt...

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I was trying to get @ClicheVortex2014 to come when the PDS Warning came out, I already said that, but I think that you missed it.

Think we posted at the same time. Still PDS warned.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
727 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

ARC049-065-075-121-135-160100-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220416T0100Z/
Randolph AR-Izard AR-Fulton AR-Lawrence AR-Sharp AR-
727 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...EASTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES...

At 726 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Hardy, or over Cherokee Village, moving east at 50 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and softball size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee Village...               Ash Flat...
Horseshoe Bend...                 Highland in Sharp County...
Mammoth Spring...                 Hardy...
Imboden...                        Ravenden...
Ravenden Springs...               Ballard...
Annieville...                     Mammoth Spring State Park...
Smithville...                     Williford...
Agnos...                          Armstrong...
Heart...                          Kittle...
Wirth...                          Saddle...

 

 

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Tornado Emergency!!!

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
735 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

ARC049-065-075-121-135-160100-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220416T0100Z/
Randolph AR-Izard AR-Fulton AR-Lawrence AR-Sharp AR-
735 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...EASTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES...

At 734 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Hardy, or 9 miles east of Cherokee Village, moving east at 50
mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee Village...               Ash Flat...
Horseshoe Bend...                 Highland in Sharp County...
Mammoth Spring...                 Hardy...
Imboden...                        Ravenden...
Ravenden Springs...               Ballard...
Annieville...                     Mammoth Spring State Park...
Smithville...                     Williford...
Agnos...                          Armstrong...
Heart...                          Kittle...
Wirth...                          Saddle...

 

 

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TORNADO EMERGENCY! 🤯

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...EASTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES...

At 734 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Hardy, or 9 miles east of Cherokee Village, moving east at 50
mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee Village...               Ash Flat...
Horseshoe Bend...                 Highland in Sharp County...
Mammoth Spring...                 Hardy...
Imboden...                        Ravenden...
Ravenden Springs...               Ballard...
Annieville...                     Mammoth Spring State Park...
Smithville...                     Williford...
Agnos...                          Armstrong...
Heart...                          Kittle...
Wirth...                          Saddle...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take
immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 9180 3650 9161 3650 9115 3601 9121
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 283DEG 44KT 3629 9139

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN

 

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