ElectricStorm Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 (edited) This shouldn't be anything like the last few systems, but it looks like the next system is about to move through starting tomorrow. For Friday we have a marginal risk up for all hazards. Moisture return and instability don't look good models tend to underestimate it a bit. HRRR shows a nice cluster of storms over NE OK/NW AR tomorrow evening, and I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to slight risk. For Saturday, marginal risk up but I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk at some point. Will probably have some morning convection/cloud cover issues so it might limit the threat. SPC mentioning some severe potential will likely be possible in the southern plains and southeast on Sun-Mon but no areas have been highlighted yet. Overall, this should be mostly small-scale events but we're at the point in the year where all of these will have to be watched. Edited April 21, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 14, 2022 Share Posted April 14, 2022 (edited) The CIPS has severe storms possible for Texas tomorrow, Saturday, & Sunday before it tapers off for only a couple of days. Then it comes back in Panhandle Texas on Next Wednesday, & with a vengeance in the southern plains next Thursday (April 21st, 2022) Edited April 14, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 14, 2022 Author Share Posted April 14, 2022 Yessir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 (edited) 15z SREF has a 30% STP in Oklahoma & Arkansas On College of Dupage, there's a legit chance that the CAPE levels will exceed 2000 J/kg in Oklahoma, I'm strongly thinking that this is likely going to be a very sneaky event. EDIT: The 21z SREF now has 45% STP on 6z (Midnight?) in Oklahoma and Arkansas, does it appear to be an overnighter event? Edited April 15, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 15, 2022 Author Share Posted April 15, 2022 15 hatched hail risk is up for tonight. Hopefully I can get a good storm this time, just not anything crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 15, 2022 (edited) 'tis the season of the most mediocre setups producing significant severe weather. In addition to the 15% hatched hail, SPC added 5% tornado. At this point, I'm pretty sure I speak for all of the South when I say: I can't wait for the Southern ridge to take over. They need a break and those of us in the north have been deprived. Edited April 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 The Mesoscale models are showing that this is likely a Overnight event for NE Oklahoma tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The Mesoscale models are showing that this is likely a Overnight event for NE Oklahoma tonight. Yep got quite a bit of moisture advection left to do haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 15, 2022 Getting some really strong gusts here. Very tall mixed layer... low-level winds between 20-40 knots. Observed winds between 18-30 mph, gusting 22-40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 15, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 0497 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Areas affected...Northeast OK...Northwest/North-Central AR...Far South MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 152002Z - 152200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The environment is becoming more favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms. These supercells could pose a threat for all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to rapidly spread northward ahead of the shortwave trough moving across central KS. Latest surface observations sampled 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north of MLC in east-central OK. Mid 50s surface dewpoints reaching as far north as Tulsa County OK. This moisture advection is expected to persist throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. By 00Z, the expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will likely be near the OK/MO/AR border intersection. This low-level moisture coupled with cool mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -16 deg C at 500mb) and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will support at least moderate instability. Recent surface analysis shows a sharp warm front from far southeast KS southeastward across far southwest MO and north-central AR into east-central AR. Low-level convergence along this boundary coupled with subtle ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave and the destabilizing air mass to foster thunderstorm initiation. Low-level flow will likely remain southerly/southwesterly, but moderate to strong mid- and upper-level flow will still result in vertical profiles that support supercells with any updrafts that persist/mature. All severe hazards will be possible with these supercells, including very large hail and tornadoes. Very large hail appears to be the most likely risk. The tornado risk will likely be maximized near the warm front, where low-level flow may be more backed. Additionally, forecast storm motion of any supercells is parallel to the warm front, suggesting that any cells that mature just south of warm front could remain in an area of favorable low-level shear for a notable duration. Given the potential for severe thunderstorm, a watch will likely be needed over portions of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 Thunderstorm watch for Southern Missouri & Northern Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 15, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 15, 2022 Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 There's a Tornado warning in Northern Arkansas with Softball sized hail, why is that not being noticed here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Just now, Iceresistance said: There's a Tornado warning in Northern Arkansas with Softball sized hail, why is that not being noticed here? PDS TORNADO WARNING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: There's a Tornado warning in Northern Arkansas with Softball sized hail, why is that not being noticed here? PDS warned actually. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 718 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 ARC049-065-075-121-135-160100- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220416T0100Z/ Randolph AR-Izard AR-Fulton AR-Lawrence AR-Sharp AR- 718 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...FULTON...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES... At 717 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7 miles northwest of Cherokee Village, moving east at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado and very large hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Cherokee Village... Salem in Fulton County... Ash Flat... Horseshoe Bend... Highland in Sharp County... Mammoth Spring... Hardy... Imboden... Ravenden... Ravenden Springs... Ballard... Annieville... Mammoth Spring State Park... Smithville... Williford... Agnos... Armstrong... Heart... Moko... Fryatt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Just now, snowlover2 said: PDS warned actually. I was trying to get @ClicheVortex2014 to come when the PDS Warning came out, I already said that, but I think that you missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 16, 2022 (edited) Went with the wrong radar. Not seeing the rotation or debris from LZK. Should've stayed with the SGF radar. Edited April 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I was trying to get @ClicheVortex2014 to come when the PDS Warning came out, I already said that, but I think that you missed it. Think we posted at the same time. Still PDS warned. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 727 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 ARC049-065-075-121-135-160100- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220416T0100Z/ Randolph AR-Izard AR-Fulton AR-Lawrence AR-Sharp AR- 727 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...EASTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES... At 726 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Hardy, or over Cherokee Village, moving east at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado and softball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Cherokee Village... Ash Flat... Horseshoe Bend... Highland in Sharp County... Mammoth Spring... Hardy... Imboden... Ravenden... Ravenden Springs... Ballard... Annieville... Mammoth Spring State Park... Smithville... Williford... Agnos... Armstrong... Heart... Kittle... Wirth... Saddle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Think we posted at the same time. Still PDS warned. Softball sized hail is also going as well, I don't think anyone saw this coming. (I didn't, even though I did expect maybe a overperformance, but not like this!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 16, 2022 Tornado emergency? Seriously? Wasn't expecting this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Tornado Emergency!!! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 735 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 ARC049-065-075-121-135-160100- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220416T0100Z/ Randolph AR-Izard AR-Fulton AR-Lawrence AR-Sharp AR- 735 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...EASTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES... At 734 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Hardy, or 9 miles east of Cherokee Village, moving east at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Cherokee Village... Ash Flat... Horseshoe Bend... Highland in Sharp County... Mammoth Spring... Hardy... Imboden... Ravenden... Ravenden Springs... Ballard... Annieville... Mammoth Spring State Park... Smithville... Williford... Agnos... Armstrong... Heart... Kittle... Wirth... Saddle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 TORNADO EMERGENCY! 🤯 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...EASTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES... At 734 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Hardy, or 9 miles east of Cherokee Village, moving east at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Cherokee Village... Ash Flat... Horseshoe Bend... Highland in Sharp County... Mammoth Spring... Hardy... Imboden... Ravenden... Ravenden Springs... Ballard... Annieville... Mammoth Spring State Park... Smithville... Williford... Agnos... Armstrong... Heart... Kittle... Wirth... Saddle... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation. && LAT...LON 3624 9180 3650 9161 3650 9115 3601 9121 TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 283DEG 44KT 3629 9139 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 16, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Tornado emergency? Seriously? Wasn't expecting this Probable reason for the warning: SPOTTER REPORTED A WEDGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND AND GOLF BALL SIZE MOVING THROUGH HARDY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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