February 18-19, 2024 | Severe Weather/Extremely Rare 5% Tornado Area in CA

[ElectricStorm]

Well this isn't something you see very often. Day 2 outlook now has a tornado-driven slight risk in California. I'm honestly not sure I've ever seen a 5% tornado area in CA before, and I can't remember the last time I've even seen a slight risk in general out there. 

Looking at models, 0z HRRR has a couple cells out in front of a line. Keep in mind the 48 HRRR isn't the most reliable so we'll see what it looks like as we get closer. 

Sounding out ahead of the cells. Probably about as good of a hodograph your gonna get in that area. Shear looks good, moisture/instability are lacking but I think the shear should make up for that and get the job done. 

 

Morning convection could be an issue but any discrete cell should have a chance to produce. Interested to see how this plays out. 

Added Sunday on here due to marginal risk in southern FL, could see some QLCS spin ups with a squall line but probably won't see much. 

 

Edited February 18 by ElectricStorm

[Hoosier]

If I knew nothing else about that forecast sounding, I'd say it looks a lot like the kind of thing we see in Midwest cold season setups.  There looks to be good 0-3 km CAPE, at least on that forecast sounding.  Will be interesting to see if there are any tornado reports.

[ElectricStorm]

Well looks like it ended up being a bust 

[Hoosier]

Seems like temps/dews sort of underperformed based on what SPC said.