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October 2-?, 2023 | Severe Weather


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A little surprised a thread for this hasn't been started yet, but it looks like the next system will bring multiple days of severe weather over the next week.

For Monday, a Day 2 slight risk is up for E NM/W TX. 0z HRRR has several cells firing, and while tornado threat should be pretty low (2% on latest outlook) there could be some pretty good hail (and probably some good structure for chasers) 


Tuesday looks like it might be the most interesting day for now, Day 3 slight risk is up


48hr HRRR isn't very reliable but it's correct then I think we could see the slight/marginal areas shifted east a bit, although storms should be dying as they reach C OK. 

Wednesday looks like a good rain/general T-storm day for OK/TX but I wouldn't be surprised to see a marginal area at some point. I'm just looking forward to the daily highs here finally dropping again, likely for good this time.

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I think there is a chance for Monday severe weather on the northern Plains/Black Hills (in addition to what has been mentioned before in this thread.) It will starting out with storms in Wyoming with strong forcing/strong shear. Models show mid-50's dew points in Wyoming to start off the severe threat in Wyoming.

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this is by Hobbs, New Mexico, unfortunately not too close to any radar, but it is kind of close enough to MAF radar

* Until 430 PM MDT.
* At 356 PM MDT, a tornado producing storm was located near Maljamar,
  or 20 miles west of Lovington, moving east at 25 mph.


Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX

404 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023

At 404 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located 9 miles east of
Maljamar, or 16 miles southwest of Lovington, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.


Edited by Chinook
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HRRR for tomorrow night. There are some decent chances for severe storms from southern Kansas into northern Nebraska tomorrow. I think wind/hail will be the main threat. The NAM-12km shows pretty decent significant tornado indices for this area, so that's something to think about. Maybe there will be some impressive severe storms with the dryline in Oklahoma.



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Yeah no I'm not buying that yet, that morning convection will likely make it pretty tough for the next round to do much, although not sure I buy the NAM solution either, which has nothing after the morning round. RRFS is running now so we'll see which side it takes. Still leaning towards mostly a rain/general t-storm event with perhaps a few severe cells around. Really depends on how strong/long-lasting the morning convection is and how much clearing we get. 

We'll see if this persists in later runs 

Edited by ElectricStorm
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There should be many heavy storms with much of Texas and Oklahoma getting rainfall tomorrow. The storms will have a chance to produce severe wind and hail, as noted with the slight risk by the SPC. The convection-allowing models have quite a few possible discrete storms in the slight risk area.


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Looks like all the morning convection is north of here, so I'm not too concerned about that. Already seeing some clearing here, so it looks primed for a significant severe weather event. Overall environment doesn't look good for tornadoes but there's a chance we could see a few weak ones. Mainly wind threat here, hail threat further west. Should be interesting 

Edit to add: Some HRRR runs are showing an initial wave developing within the next couple hours. Not a fan of that since I'll be walking around to class so we'll see 

Edited by ElectricStorm
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The ECMWF has quite a bit of 60's dew points coming up with the late week storm. Looks like we are really into fall now with cool temps to the north side of this low pressure. The SPC outlooks has Day-4 slight-risk at Kansas, which is totally reasonable given some agreement from the models now



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