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October 12-?, 2022 | Strong fall cold front


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On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Upper Midwest as a cold front advances southeastward just ahead of the trough. Thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the front during the day, with storms move eastward into the western Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop in parts of the Ozarks northeastward into the southern Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening. Due to a strongly forced setup, an organized line of strong thunderstorms could develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley. This convective line associated with strong wind gusts may remain intact into Wednesday night, moving to the central Appalachians by daybreak on Thursday. On Thursday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the Northeast during the day, as the cold front advances quickly eastward into the region. However, concerns related to moisture return and instability add some unpredictability into the forecast. If later runs are more aggressive with moisture and instability ahead of the cold front, then an area could need to be added on Wednesday or Thursday.




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