Orlene | 130 mph 949 mb peak | Poof, literally vanished from the face of the earth

[Iceresistance]

Oh jeez!

Special Advisory products have been issued.  Use links below for details.

...ORLENE IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...

6:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 1
Location: 18.2°N 107.1°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

The satellite presentation of Orlene has quickly improved during the
past several hours. A warm and well-defined eye has emerged in
GOES-17 satellite imagery, surrounded by a solid ring of deep
convection with infrared cloud tops colder than -70 degrees Celsius.
The initial intensity is set at 90 kt for this advisory based on
recent satellite intensity estimates.

Based on the higher initial intensity, the near-term intensity 
forecast has been raised to show additional strengthening in the 
next 12-24 h while environmental conditions remain conducive for 
intensification. No changes were made to the track forecast with 
this special advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of west-central
mainland Mexico starting on Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico into Monday evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0000Z 18.2N 107.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

There were brief storms named Lester, Madine, and Newton before Orlene showed up. 

[Iceresistance]

WOW! Category 4 already! O_O

[Iceresistance]

Back down to a 3, Recon is on the way

[Iceresistance]

Recon has found nearly 100 knots SMFR, but the strongest quadrant has not been sampled. 

[Iceresistance]

Down to a 2, that was quick.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

Landfall confirmed in Mexico. 

 

Hurricane Orlene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
745 AM MDT Mon Oct 02 2022

...ORLENE MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates that Orlene has made landfall in 
southwest Mexico just north of the Nayarit and Sinaloa border around 
745 AM MDT (1345 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to 
be 85 mph (140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated 
at 980 mb (28.94 inches).

An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the 
state of Nayarit has recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph 
(70 km/h) and a gust to 81 mph (130 km/h). 

SUMMARY OF 745 AM MDT...1345 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 105.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

 

[Iceresistance]

And, before you can check on it fast enough, he is already vanishing from the face of the earth.

[Iceresistance]

Where is Orlene? I can't find him