TS Hermine | 40 mph 1002 mb | Cape Verde Surprise

[Iceresistance]

How many more surprises are we going to get?

 

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave that NHC has 
been tracking for several days over western Africa has developed a 
well-defined surface center over the far eastern Atlantic with 
organized bands of convection.  Dropsonde data from a DC-8 aircraft 
with the NASA field program Convective Processes EXperiment-Cabo 
Verde (CPEX-CV) has been quite useful in determining the central 
pressure and surface circulation definition of the low, with the 
central pressure of 1003 mb based on the dropsondes.  The initial 
wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern 
side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or 
aircraft data.

The system is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt.  A large 
break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause this 
system to move generally northward ahead of a mid-level trough 
before turning westward and accelerating as a shallow system beneath 
the low-level ridge.  The forecast is close to the model consensus, 
with heavier weight being placed on the global models than the 
regional hurricane track models. 

The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate 
shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper- 
level southwesterly winds.  Most of the guidance shows this system 
becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late 
this weekend and dissipating early next week.  The official wind 
speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA.

Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over the Canary Islands 
through this weekend due to a combination of the mid-level trough 
and moisture from this system, which is a bit unusual for that area.

 

[snowlover2]

This is now TS Hermine.

Quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
800 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

...THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS, BUT IN THE 
EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 20.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 20.5 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this 
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast this 
weekend, with a turn to the northwest possible early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible through 
tomorrow, with weakening expected on Sunday, and Hermine could 
become a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hermine is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 
mm) of rain, with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm), over the 
Canary Islands through this weekend. This rainfall could cause some 
flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Blake