Winter 2025-2026

[Arctic Outbreak]

Only about 7 months to go...what are everyone's initial thoughts on next winter? 

[Grace]

ENSO maybe neutral?? Hard to tell. Hard to predict winter without a more consistent ENSO signal. 

I thought this past winter would be torch & boy was I glad to be wrong.

Edited May 2 by Grace

[Hoosier]

On 5/2/2025 at 3:50 PM, Grace said:

ENSO maybe neutral?? Hard to tell. Hard to predict winter without a more consistent ENSO signal. 

I thought this past winter would be torch & boy was I glad to be wrong.

Neutral ENSO looks pretty likely imo.  Maybe a cool neutral.  

Yeah, the cold definitely overperformed this past winter.  

[SnowloverSid]

This is purely conjecture, but the Northeast is overdue for a 2002-03 or 1977-78 sort of winter. 2013-14 I believe was ENSO neutral and on the same 12-year cycle as this upcoming winter. However, 12 years before that, 2001-02, was nothing like 2013-14. However, on November 3, 2013,  a wintry day, had a premonition that the upcoming winter would be a harsh one. And, on November 8 it was snowing that afternoon near Binghamton, NY. And I found a song called “November Snow” that very afternoon. I am writing this on a November-like afternoon.

[TLChip]

This far out? I know we will experience these feelings…

 

 

[1816]

On 5/4/2025 at 8:37 PM, SnowloverSid said:

This is purely conjecture, but the Northeast is overdue for a 2002-03 or 1977-78 sort of winter. 2013-14 I believe was ENSO neutral and on the same 12-year cycle as this upcoming winter. However, 12 years before that, 2001-02, was nothing like 2013-14. However, on November 3, 2013,  a wintry day, had a premonition that the upcoming winter would be a harsh one. And, on November 8 it was snowing that afternoon near Binghamton, NY. And I found a song called “November Snow” that very afternoon. I am writing this on a November-like afternoon.

 

Edited May 7 by 1816

[SnowloverSid]

On 5/7/2025 at 5:48 PM, 1816 said:

 

I first heard this song on December 1, 1991– I missed, by 12 hours, hearing it in November. It was on the Hot 100 for its final week on Nov. 7, 1992; the tune was my favorite by that band.

[TheComet]

How much rain can we expect in the Northeast US this winter, specifically NEPA? 

[BuckeyeGal]

The CANSIPS was posted in a Facebook weather page I follow, and it said below normal to near normal temps and above average precipitation for much of our region. We'll see, lol.

[Grace]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/atlantic-anomaly-hints-cold-winter-2025-2026-pattern-over-united-states-canada-fa/

[Indygirl]

As gross as this summer has been in central Indiana we deserve a good ole fashioned winter!

it’s been nothing but sticky humidity rain heat and bugs! 😫🤮

Did I say bugs? Even the ticks  are out of control! 🤮😬 ….never in the 22 years living in this house have I picked ticks off of me on multiple occasions, even waking up in the middle of the night to feel something biting me behind my ear…yep! A DOG TICK!! 
Gotta be from all of the deer and critters because we live on a creek, but STILL!

We need a cold snowy winter that starts in September LOL. 

 

[Grace]

Well, NMME page has nearly all models agreeing that ENSO cools to weak La Nina or possibly just neutral negative.

 

[SNOWBOB11]

On 7/8/2025 at 12:57 AM, Grace said:

Well, NMME page has nearly all models agreeing that ENSO cools to weak La Nina or possibly just neutral negative.

 

I’m fine with that.

[BoroBuckeye]

[Arctic Outbreak]

17 hours ago, BoroBuckeye said:

That is fantastic. Seems like we've had wild ENSO swings for a long time. 

[Grace]

Euro Seasonal updated through February. Dec & Jan look good & blocky, & Feb looks blowtorch. Obviously all of this is just satisfying curiosity at this point.

DEC, 500mb

 

JAN, 500mb

 

FEB, 500mb

Edited Wednesday at 12:35 PM by Grace

[NEPAsnow]

Cfs has a cold jan/feb

 

[Pghsnow]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2025-2026-qbo-stratospheric-polar-vortex-cold-forecast-pattern-united-states-canada-fa/

[Grace]

Have no clue who this is...just sharing. Glad to see a forecast or 2!

 

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2025/08/08/winter-2025-2026-weather-forecast/

[Pghsnow]

14 hours ago, Grace said:

Have no clue who this is...just sharing. Glad to see a forecast or 2!

 

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2025/08/08/winter-2025-2026-weather-forecast/

Based on that link I just went and gassed up my snow blower. 🤣 Direct Weather seems to have that same map every year. One of these years they could be right...