Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 8 Social Media Crew Posted January 8 (edited) Every four years, on January 20th (or 21st).. Our nation celebrates Inauguration Day 🇺🇸 ..and as an American History teacher with a passion for weather, that prompted me to consider notable weather events that intersect with this civic event. On March 4th, 1841 William Henry Harrison gave the lengthiest inaugural speech on a bitterly cold day in Washington. One month later, he died of pneumonia.. presumed due to his inaugural address in the toughest elements. More recently, John F. Kennedy gave his inaugural address on January 20th, 1961.. the day after a snowstorm impacted the region with 10-20" of snow. An image of that storm is included in spoiler, along with a description in the following link, to provide some historical context. That leaves us with a question.. What will this Inauguration Day bring in terms of the weather? Could it be white, wet, or something else? If modeling is any indication.. the potential exists for a storm to develop around this timeframe. The details of that storm are uncertain. As a matter of fact, there's a lot of uncertainty in the upcoming forecast.. and prospects for a winter storm are somewhat scarce. With that being said, it looks like the next opportunity may arrive on or around January 21st. Support is offered by the ECMWF, ECMWF-AIFS, and EPS. Teleconnections aren't clear, as the AO, NAO, and PNA could be positive, negative, or neutral.. but there is a connection with the North Pacific. A storm can be identified in the Bering Sea on or around January 3rd, which would correspond to this speculative timeframe. In terms of ensembles, the EPS indicates lower heights in the east during this timeframe; however, individual members show no clustering at this lead. The European Model has hinted at a potential storm at the surface; however, the potential track has varied greatly.. from a cutter to something out to sea. The Euro AIFS has been the most consistent signal.. and even this AI model has shifted the track back and forth over the past few days. It's certainly a timeframe to watch.. but a number of factors inspire low confidence. Despite this.. I hope for some good discussion, and maybe some snow to wrap-up the period. Happy Tracking! 🤓 Model Guidance | 12z ECMWF AIFS (Hours 252-324) MSLP Surface Map 500 MB & Vorticity Map 500 MB Height Anomaly Ensemble Guidance | 12z EPS (Hour 312) 500 MB Height Anomaly Spoiler Operational Model Guidance | 500 MB Height Anomaly, Surface, & 500 MB Vorticity (Hours 252-324) 12z ECMWF Ensemble Model Guidance | 500 MB Height Anomaly & MSLP Members (Hours 252-324) 12z EPS Teleconnections MJO Forecast AO Forecast NAO Forecast PNA Forecast North Pacific | Bering Sea Rule (BSR) Historical Context Kennedy’s Inaugural Snowstorm | January 18-21, 1961 Edited Sunday at 02:15 PM by Penn State 5
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Great opener Charlie Brown Wanna try kicking some field goals?? 1 3
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Didn't know whether to post this in Fantasy Model Runs Or here - you know? Just to be provocateur FINALLY. a look where a low attacks a N High (Bohemian Rhapsody intro. heard softly in background) Is this the real life, is this just fantasy
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Great opener Charlie Brown Wanna try kicking some field goals?? I’ll pass.. lol 😂 I thought Charlie Brown was appropriate after the last storm potential. Notice that Lucy (GFS) wasn’t mentioned in the opener. Just the Euro, Euro AI, and EPS. No need for… 1 1 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Didn't know whether to post this in Fantasy Model Runs Or here - you know? Just to be provocateur FINALLY. a look where a low attacks a N High (Bohemian Rhapsody intro. heard softly in background) Is this the real life, is this just fantasy It looks like there’s 2 windows there, one around the 21st, and then again a few days later (looks like the 25th?).. I’m thinking the 21st may be last before a pattern flip, but who knows. This one on the 21st has shown cutter tendencies on the modeling early.
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 9 (edited) The 06z Euro AIFS provided an interesting outcome.. and to provide some context, it's been trending between an OTS solution and a more amped solution that does in fact include the potential for a cutter with a lot of warmth rising north. With that being said, this seems to be the middle ground.. at the moment. Right now, this makes sense. We have cold in place, which would provide for a decent overrunning style event. Now, when I first looked at this, I thought.. Apps Runner.. no good. If you look at the 2m temperatures, it's below freezing for most.. and the 24 hour QPF map provides an indication of the juice coming from the Gulf. Edited January 9 by Penn State 1
Jon Snow Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Just substitute snowing for cold, and this would be appropriate 1 2
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Gun shyness to post decent GFS portrayal of this time frame? LOL 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 9 38 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Gun shyness to post decent GFS portrayal of this time frame? LOL I am done with the GFS for the season.. for better or worse lol.. I've shunned it from the opening. *I say this now.. but when it shows eye candy.. I'll probably come around* 1 2
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 9 Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, Penn State said: I am done with the GFS for the season.. for better or worse lol.. I've shunned it from the opening. *I say this now.. but when it shows eye candy.. I'll probably come around* It did amazingly horrible with the immediate threat - worse than I've ever seen perhaps. That the ENS package followed made it ever more failure. 2 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 9 Euro, Euro AI, and Canadian.. All with some general agreement about SW low swinging in to the lower 48 at hour 240. Obviously, the details after matter quite a bit..
NEPAsnow Posted January 9 Posted January 9 I think the Euro has been smokin' the same crack the GFS been using. 1
shea-bird Posted January 9 Posted January 9 For real, Long range GFS is like a claw machine for a 6 year old...looks great (eye candy) until you actually drop the claw. The Algo's are clearly biased long term...Euro and CMC have both been modest and more accurate in their long range forecasts for these last couple storms. 1 1
ionizer Posted January 9 Posted January 9 #47 and snow on the same day, too good to be true and we know one is already guaranteed. 1 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, ionizer said: #47 and snow on the same day, too good to be true and we know one is already guaranteed. Looking at the modeling.. I can see this being early too (19th). I think the Euro from last night landed it at 1 PM on the 20th, which would be right during primetime for the Inauguration.
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 9 Just to be fair.. the 12z Euro AIFS was an Apps Runner.. and warm on the east side. Still a lot moisture, but doesn’t inspire confidence. Also.. a laughable moment. About 80% of the U.S. was below freezing too.. except east of the Apps. New Orleans.. 29. CTP.. 40 and rain. 🙄 1
JDClapper Posted January 9 Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Penn State said: Also.. 👀 Well that narrows it down 🙂 3
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 9 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 9 Just now, JDClapper said: Well that narrows it down 🙂 Might as well circumnavigated the globe with that map. There’s a chance of snow on earth. Somewhere. 0-72”. 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 10 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 10 (edited) The 18z Euro AIFS was a step back towards 06z.. a little colder, would make some happy.. a lot more, not so much. Also noticing.. seems zippy, but still drops a decent amount of QPF. It’s not necessarily strong either. 1010 to 999 Edited January 10 by Penn State
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 10 Author Social Media Crew Posted January 10 Just to show the “relative” consistency of the Euro AIFS.. Placement is a bit all over the place, but the storm signal is there. Lots of options from cutter to OTS.. but in the ballpark.
Admin Sentinel Posted January 10 Admin Posted January 10 3 hours ago, Penn State said: Might as well circumnavigated the globe with that map. There’s a chance of snow on earth. Somewhere. 0-72”. I hope somewhere gets 73" 3 1
Admin MaineJay Posted January 10 Admin Posted January 10 Can't rule the cutter out, that's for sure. Nor more of a FROPA. But beggars shouldn't nit pick. Best EPS plume in a month. 1
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