Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 2 Posted January 2 (edited) Well - I've seen enough! It's time to roll them bones and speculate about "the big one". I'll start this show with a look at the tele's- then go to OF methods - then a few model shots Teles: Oh MJO Oh MJO - keep moving past Phase 7, Oh MJO oh MJO, Phase 8 is weenie heaven. And if you please, move to Phase One -then we can all have our snowy fun... Yessir, amplified AND in Phase One - Check AO - see how it is modeled to relax - that will ease the confluence issue, yet still be plenty cold enough - CHECK NAO - Negative, indicative of downstream blocking - again slightly relaxing indicating the push from "over top" will not be so strong - CHECK PNA - raging Western ridge setting up our sliding board - CHECK Blocking - again see how it relaxes/moves East as we get to these dates, should allow for a system to "move on up" - CHECK Now we turn to Organic Forecasting, specifically, the East Asia Rule (storms exiting through Japan reflect over here 7-9 days later) Our good buddy Poc turned me onto this two-three days ago (the evolution, not the actual EAR) Now to me, this looks like a classic hard stall Miller B, yet it acts more like a slam banging Miller A in some respects - either way CHECK Finally, we turn to the Op models. Not to follow verbatim - simply to show POTENTIAL (thus my title for this thread) - I'm only posting the best Op run solution to date - 18z GFS See how it bombs! Albeit wide right Some serious upside Well that's about as long an opener as I've ever posted - and we got up to TWO systems to work out first. Having the "Perfecta" of Tele's in full support + OFM support, I decided to jump on and put this out as a lead - as opposed to having it fall in with the responses to a subsequent offering. All for now - if this works out blame, er I mean give credit to Poc, JD and the other OFM gurus out there. Edited January 2 by Undertakerson2.0 3 2 3
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 2 Author Posted January 2 Yeah - I sure don't expect that S graphic to hold - yet it may (future to fill in the coast, imho)
LUCC Posted January 2 Posted January 2 (edited) One of these have to come through for the region, been a while since we had a bigun. Nothing worse than a wasted arctic blast. 😢 Edited January 2 by LUCC
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 2 Author Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, LUCC said: One of these have to ce through for the region, been a while since we had a bigun. Nothing worse than a wasted arctic blast. 😢 Seemingly, almost HAS to Yet we know to temper expectations regardless...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 2 Author Posted January 2 In this GIF we use the Pac view - EAR zone is (of course) on L edge of frames. Here's a loop that would correlate the modeling to the dates I'm using. Mind you, this may not be a clear "6 days later" - it may lag as it waits in que. Also note - using hrs 96-156. That means the EAR look can change. It has held this look for several runs, seems solid as to the essentials anyway.
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 2 Author Posted January 2 This is what happens when the pieces get ahead of another - we still see a storm - yet it's nothing like the signal suggests. See how it hold back in the SW? That needed to come along far sooner. It probably comes out on its own though. Well kinda
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 2 Author Posted January 2 (edited) So when it comes out in full BAMMM! Edited January 2 by Undertakerson2.0 2 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 2 Social Media Crew Posted January 2 AIFS had something for the 16th-17th as well..
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 2 Author Posted January 2 Now - as you can see this did not do a nice date match. Could be we see two distinct, yet as I origin posted, one is the preferred (as to continuity) outcome. Imaging had both those systems meshed (as the LR OFM indicates)? Wheeeeeee!
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 2 Social Media Crew Posted January 2 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Now - as you can see this did not do a nice date match. Could be we see two distinct, yet as I origin posted, one is the preferred (as to continuity) outcome. Imaging had both those systems meshed (as the LR OFM indicates)? Wheeeeeee! It would be glorious lol.. Fits when things start to relax I believe
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 2 Author Posted January 2 I guess I should allowed more than a two day span when opening for week and a half out?? With mods approval, I'll go alter to 15-18?? 1
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 2 Moderators Posted January 2 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I guess I should allowed more than a two day span when opening for week and a half out?? With mods approval, I'll go alter to 15-18?? Sure - we can always tweak it further down the road.
Admin Sentinel Posted January 3 Admin Posted January 3 17 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Well - I've seen enough! It's time to roll them bones and speculate about "the big one". I'll start this show with a look at the tele's- then go to OF methods - then a few model shots Teles: Oh MJO Oh MJO - keep moving past Phase 7, Oh MJO oh MJO, Phase 8 is weenie heaven. And if you please, move to Phase One -then we can all have our snowy fun... Yessir, amplified AND in Phase One - Check AO - see how it is modeled to relax - that will ease the confluence issue, yet still be plenty cold enough - CHECK NAO - Negative, indicative of downstream blocking - again slightly relaxing indicating the push from "over top" will not be so strong - CHECK PNA - raging Western ridge setting up our sliding board - CHECK Blocking - again see how it relaxes/moves East as we get to these dates, should allow for a system to "move on up" - CHECK Now we turn to Organic Forecasting, specifically, the East Asia Rule (storms exiting through Japan reflect over here 7-9 days later) Our good buddy Poc turned me onto this two-three days ago (the evolution, not the actual EAR) Now to me, this looks like a classic hard stall Miller B, yet it acts more like a slam banging Miller A in some respects - either way CHECK Finally, we turn to the Op models. Not to follow verbatim - simply to show POTENTIAL (thus my title for this thread) - I'm only posting the best Op run solution to date - 18z GFS See how it bombs! Albeit wide right Some serious upside Well that's about as long an opener as I've ever posted - and we got up to TWO systems to work out first. Having the "Perfecta" of Tele's in full support + OFM support, I decided to jump on and put this out as a lead - as opposed to having it fall in with the responses to a subsequent offering. All for now - if this works out blame, er I mean give credit to Poc, JD and the other OFM gurus out there. Phenomenal write up 1
Admin Sentinel Posted January 3 Admin Posted January 3 10 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Say my name!!
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 3 Author Posted January 3 Coupladeez show that upside with some hard hits.
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 3 Author Posted January 3 I speculate that the bundle in TX gets kicked by the one over WI this run. I futher speculate that the ID bundle will actually merge with the TX on in subsequent runs. Then it become as matter IF IF IF that Artic piece injects. Looooooooooooooooooooooooooooong way to go.
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 3 Author Posted January 3 (edited) Not quite the idea - getting there. Edited January 3 by Undertakerson2.0 1
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