December 26-29, 2024 | Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak

[ElectricStorm]

After a lengthy break, severe weather is back with perhaps the last major severe weather event of 2024 on Saturday. 10 hatched enhanced risk and tornado watch is up now in TX and while there could be a few strong tornadoes today, I think Saturday 12/28 could be a much bigger day. 

Already a Day 3 enhanced up. Tornado potential could be a bit uncertain with storm mode but still looks significant. 

 

Edited December 28, 2024 by ElectricStorm

[jbrumberg]

 

Mostly clear skies with 8ºF as this morning's low temperature.  Upon sunrise a thin veil of upper level clouds became evident and the haze appears to be thickening.The current temperature is 15ºF and I expect a cloudy afternoon with a high temperature in the mid30ºF's as the warm front approaches.  

Like many others here the NWS/B-N Office has also issued a WWA for icing early tomorrow morning:

Spoiler

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST

SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations around a

  light glaze.

 

* WHERE...Northern Connecticut and much of western, central and

  northeastern Massachusetts.

 

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday.

 

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible,

  which could make for hazardous travel conditions.

Lower elevations like the CT River Valley are predicted to have a more prolonged period of icing (CAD).  From this morning's NWS/B-N Office discussion of this pending FROPA:

Spoiler

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

345 AM Update:

 

Key Messages:

 

* A light glaze of ice from freezing rain into interior Southern

  New England mainly during the Saturday morning hours. Icing

  may linger in lower-elevation interior areas (the

  CT/Merrimack Valleys) into the early afternoon. Impacts from

  ice accretion solely limited to travel. Winter Weather

  Advisories issued.

 

* Light rain across RI and much of eastern/southeast MA.

 

* Rain becomes more intermittent/drizzly late afternoon to Saturday

  evening.

 

Details...

 

Increasing cloudiness develops tonight in response to a warm

front associated with a frontal system now near the mid-MS

Valley region. This feature is expected to begin to spread light

precipitation by the Saturday pre-dawn hours timeframe in

interior western New England, and into early Saturday morning

for eastern portions of Southern New England. Before

precipitation arrives, we should see some initial period of

radiational cooling helping to drive temps into the mid- 20s by

early overnight. During the second half of the overnight,

increasing cloudiness and very light southerly flow should allow

for surface temps to very slowly rise into the upper 20s for

most, to around freezing for southeast New England.

 

Precip then begins to break out around 4-6 AM Saturday in western

New England, and into 5-8 AM Saturday for central and eastern

portions of Southern New England. Temperatures are quite warm aloft

with a pronounced warm nose and associated maximum temps in the warm

nose around +6C. Precip types will be one of either rain or freezing

rain, surface-temperature dependent, with no in-between. Greatest

risk for light ice accretions is in interior Southern New England

north and west of Interstate 95. Freezing rain should gradually

transition over to plain rain from south to north as temperatures

slowly warm above freezing. Model forecast soundings in lower

elevations in the CT valley and Merrimack Valley show very limited

mixing and a slower scour-out of sub-freezing air supporting a

somewhat longer duration of FZRA for those areas. In fact, more

elevated sites like the Berkshires and hills in northern

Worcester County could flip above freezing several hrs before

areas along the I-91 corridor would.

 

For RI and the Boston/Providence corridor south and east, there

could be some patchy slippery spots at onset as plain rain falls on

cold ground given the recent spell of below normal temperatures, but

felt the prevalence of freezing rain was unlikely enough to hold off

on extending winter weather advisories into these areas for now. It

would take an earlier arrival of precip before we would then become

more concerned about the potential for light accretions of ice for

the locations currently outside of the Advisory area, and that seems

to be a less likely outcome given recent trends in the NWP guidance.

 

In terms of QPF, this is a really light event. Only looking at

liquid-equivalent amts of a tenth to at worst two tenths of an inch,

and a fraction of that would be ice where freezing rain is expected.

Following recent science behind the Freezing Rain Accumulation

Methodology, very light winds and light precipitation rates with

this event are both meteorological factors which should allow ice to

accrete efficiently on surfaces where temps are cold enough for

freezing rain. But...it`s just not a lot. A few hundredths of

icing is forecast in the Advisory areas, with totals no greater

than a tenth of an inch, and those higher totals more likely to

be observed in the CT Valley given the longer duration and

expected longer residence time of subfreezing air. Given the

expected increased traffic volume coming out of the recent

holidays, and that light freezing rain events often cause

greater travel impacts, coordination with neighboring offices

prompted issuance of Winter Weather Advisories which run from 4

AM til 1 PM Saturday.

 

Precipitation then starts to shift offshore by late in the day

into Saturday evening, as a dryslot moves in aloft. There is an

abundance of trapped low level moisture underneath the dryslot,

which is a classic pattern for drizzle and fog for Saturday

night/overnight as the warm front more or less either stalls or

washes out ahead of the next warm frontal surge slated for

Sunday. Lows should reach into the mid 30s to near 40.

Conditions will not be ideal for tomorrows Dump Run (Just like last weekend).🤬

And a related Ice Graphic:

[Chinook]

I think this day-2 outlook is a bit more serious than what we had yesterday, with a larger 10% risk. I expect more tornadoes, given a much larger area of convection with many areas of upper-60's dew points.

 

[Hoosier]

It's highly conditional and may not pan out, but watch for a sleeper severe threat getting pulled into parts of IN/OH on Sunday.  Would not even entirely rule out a low-topped supercell tornado.  

[ElectricStorm]

15 hatched added on the Day 1, the first in several months. Interestingly enough, throughout all the 2024 tornado madness, Dixie Alley hasn't really seen much this year but that might change with this event. 

A few uncertainties remain with possibly a messy storm mode, and where the area of maximum ascents ends up occurring but I'm getting increasingly concerned after seeing recent model runs. Obviously morning obs/trends will be key like usual. 

[snowlover2]

Here's the disco for the moderate. Very rare for them to mention several long track EF3+ tornadoes being possible.

Quote

 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND
   FAR WESTERN ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large
   hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward
   into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states.
   Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected.

   ...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the
   Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States...

   A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern
   Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base
   of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a
   warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered
   thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the
   morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent
   rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail
   will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit
   region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east
   Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected
   to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have
   potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and
   tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as
   this activity increases in coverage.

   Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is
   expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from
   southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along
   and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis
   will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered
   discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist
   sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving
   east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP
   forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from
   central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level
   lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot
   range. This environment will support supercell development, with a
   potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail.
   Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level
   jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show
   backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km
   storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be
   favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to
   move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the
   mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface
   dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet
   should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of
   these will be possible.

   The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move
   quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the
   afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe
   wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more
   intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe
   storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region.
   Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the
   line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the
   Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded
   supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that
   form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is
   expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the
   overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to
   continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee
   and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move
   into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by
   the end of the period.

   ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024

 

[ElectricStorm]

New update expands the moderate and mentions they considered upgrading to high but decided not to after consulting local WFOs 

[snowlover2]

PDS Tornado Watch coming soon.

Quote

 Mesoscale Discussion 2302
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana...western
   Mississippi...and extreme southeastern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281934Z - 282100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The anticipated primary round of severe storms is expected
   to take shape soon. A QLCS, likely preceded by supercells, with all
   severe hazards expected. Several EF0-EF2 tornadoes are anticipated,
   and a few intense (EF3+) tornadoes are likely. A particularly
   dangerous situation tornado watch will be issued within the next
   hour or so to address the increasing severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS is gradually organizing across eastern TX,
   preceded by multiple supercells developing within confluence bands.
   So far, tornadoes have been the predominant observed severe hazard,
   with preliminary local storm reports suggesting that some of these
   tornadoes may have been strong. Mesoanalysis trends have shown a 70
   kt mid-level jet streak pivoting the trough and approaching the open
   warm sector, characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE (given 7 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates atop 70F surface dewpoints). As such, the 850
   mb low-level jet has already increased to 40 kts, with regional VADs
   beginning to show the first signs of low-level hodograph
   enlargement. 

   Trends of increasing low-level shear across the warm sector should
   continue into the evening hours ahead of the approaching QLCS and
   supercells. Damaging tornado potential should not only persist, but
   likely increase into the evening hours, both with the QLCS and
   preceding supercells. The most discrete, dominant warm-sector
   supercells will have the best potential to produce intense,
   potentially long-lived/long-tracked tornadoes. In consideration of
   the aforementioned significant tornado potential, a particularly
   dangerous situation tornado watch is likely within the next hour.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/28/2024

 

[ElectricStorm]

Might be a significant waterspout 

[OxfordOh_]

PDS watch just issued till 9 pm.

Edited December 28, 2024 by OxfordOh_

[snowlover2]

Quote

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 720
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   215 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Arkansas
     Central and Southwest Louisiana
     Southwest Mississippi
     Southeast Texas
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
     900 PM CST.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Numerous severe/supercell thunderstorms are expected to
   intensify through the afternoon over east Texas and western
   Louisiana, spreading rapidly northeastward across the watch through
   early evening.  Parameters are becoming increasingly favorable for
   tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, and widespread damaging winds
   through the watch period.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Port Arthur TX
   to 50 miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 718...WW 719...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24035.

   ...Hart

Quote

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	High (>95%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes	High (80%)

Wind

 

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	High (80%)

Hail

 

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

 

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

 

[OxfordOh_]

PDS tornado warning 

[ElectricStorm]

[ElectricStorm]

PDS warning near Bude, MS. Some reports of a multi-vortex wedge 

[snowlover2]

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
319 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

MSC037-085-282200-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-241228T2200Z/
Lincoln MS-Franklin MS-
319 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR WEST
CENTRAL LINCOLN AND EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 319 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Bude, or near Meadville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Mccall Creek, Bude, New Hope, and Little Springs around 325 PM
  CST.
  Vaughn around 345 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 9085 3161 9063 3157 9052 3135 9075
      3135 9096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 216DEG 27KT 3142 9085

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

 

[ElectricStorm]

Wow! 

 

[ElectricStorm]

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

11 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

 

 

Yikes

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Impressive 

 

[Chinook]

Port Arthur TX, long track tornado near there. I am thinking the tornadic storm tracked all the way from Oak Island Texas (shown below), so they say maybe it went 100+miles, maybe not with all the same tornado

Debris from Bude Mississippi

[Jeffro]

Im all the way up north in Ohio but we’re expected to get some unseasonable chances for severe tomorrow. Just got my wax station up. Can’t wait to watch it go brrrr tomorrow. 

[ElectricStorm]

Absolutely nasty QLCS nearing Jackson. Spinups everywhere 

[BuckeyeGal]

The amount of tornado warnings with that line down south is insane!

[NWOhioChaser]

21 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

The amount of tornado warnings with that line down south is insane!

Thankfully not as severe as the December outbreaks that have occurred in the few years past. But still very impressive.