Dec 30, 2024 - Jan 1, 2025 | New Year Eve/Day Storm

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

Not much being attention being paid to this storm. Despite it being a storm of import on a HOLIDAY??!

Maybe this one belongs on the Island of Misfits? After all - "nobody wants a coastal storm that can't snow" 

Perhaps it's just because the danged Euro gave too many folks a case of  snowglobe goggles - that this is so easily looked past

Regardless I'll placemark this event here in case we have something anyone wants to discuss... such as maybe the cold does catch the cyclogenesis, this sets up all potentials that follows (drags cold back in), potential for a damaging wind event - that sort of thing

 

A gif of the Euro will suffice for the visuals. I'll let WPC provide much of the breakdown

 

Spoiler

Mid-level shortwave troughing is forecast to undercut a strong positive 500-hPa height anomalies center across eastern Canada late in week-1 and into early week-2 across the southeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). This may introduce cooler temperatures to the southeastern CONUS relative to the week-1 period. Following the passage of the shortwave, wind speeds may increase across portions of the Southeast as cooler air is advected into the region. As the shortwave trough progresses offshore, some model guidance indicates potential formation of a potent coastal storm moving along the Eastern Seaboard. ECENS and GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) indicate a 20-40% chance of 3-day accumulated precipitation exceeding the 85th percentile, climatologically, and .75 inches along much of the Northeast Corridor. Across the interior Northeast, back to the eastern Great Lakes, precipitation may fall as snow, despite above-normal temperatures forecast for the region. If the storm deepens as some ensemble guidance suggests, high winds would also be of concern into the Northeast. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy precipitation is forecast for Tue-Thu, Dec 31-Jan 2 for coastal portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A slight risk of heavy snow is posted for Interior New England and downwind of the eastern Great Lakes for the same period. A slight risk of high winds is highlighted across much of the East for this period as we

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2024 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

Interior folks getting richer

[MaineJay]

Nice negative tilt on the EPS

Quite the difference from the GEFS.

[TheRex]

53 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

Not much being attention being paid to this storm. Despite it being a storm of import on a HOLIDAY??!

Maybe this one belongs on the Island of Misfits? After all - "nobody wants a coastal storm that can't snow" 

Perhaps it's just because the danged Euro gave too many folks a case of  snowglobe goggles - that this is so easily looked past

Regardless I'll placemark this event here in case we have something anyone wants to discuss... such as maybe the cold does catch the cyclogenesis, this sets up all potentials that follows (drags cold back in), potential for a damaging wind event - that sort of thing

 

A gif of the Euro will suffice for the visuals. I'll let WPC provide much of the breakdown

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Mid-level shortwave troughing is forecast to undercut a strong positive 500-hPa height anomalies center across eastern Canada late in week-1 and into early week-2 across the southeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). This may introduce cooler temperatures to the southeastern CONUS relative to the week-1 period. Following the passage of the shortwave, wind speeds may increase across portions of the Southeast as cooler air is advected into the region. As the shortwave trough progresses offshore, some model guidance indicates potential formation of a potent coastal storm moving along the Eastern Seaboard. ECENS and GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) indicate a 20-40% chance of 3-day accumulated precipitation exceeding the 85th percentile, climatologically, and .75 inches along much of the Northeast Corridor. Across the interior Northeast, back to the eastern Great Lakes, precipitation may fall as snow, despite above-normal temperatures forecast for the region. If the storm deepens as some ensemble guidance suggests, high winds would also be of concern into the Northeast. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy precipitation is forecast for Tue-Thu, Dec 31-Jan 2 for coastal portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A slight risk of heavy snow is posted for Interior New England and downwind of the eastern Great Lakes for the same period. A slight risk of high winds is highlighted across much of the East for this period as we

 

 

 

Maybe we get some cold air in place so we don't get rain on top of our snow.  That would make for a sloppy New Year's party.

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, TheRex said:

Maybe we get some cold air in place so we don't get rain on top of our snow.  That would make for a sloppy New Year's party.

I've been to too many sloppy New Years Parties in my day. 🥳🥴

[MaineJay]

What a mess

[Undertakerson2.0]

11 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

What a mess

Maybe the models have been to a few of those sloppy parties too 🙂

[Undertakerson2.0]

It nearly tried to crab walk out below Mason Dixon - it sure is trying to pull in CAA while still here. 

Boundary for follow up storms sets lower in such a scenario

[losetoa6turbo]

More Eps members as coastals this run 

[losetoa6turbo]

Eps 12z

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Mainly a Maine thing

[Undertakerson2.0]

The Crazy Canuck models wants to spread it out a bit

 

Euro says - meh, it's mostly warm anyway - enjoy ski resorts of U NY and VT

[Undertakerson2.0]

Not the vort max package we've been watching for this date -however, since we have no thread already

 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

I mis-posted in the 4-6 thread about how close this is. 

Alas - no High over top and it doesn't "gin up" enough to crank cold from aloft 

Still a week out though. 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

UKM 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Euro seems similar

N NE interior 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Obligatory thread stewardship

[Undertakerson2.0]

[MaineJay]

Non-zero.

[MaineJay]

Some interesting members still the the bunch, got feel like with a system 2 days priority to this one, that there might be a little extra spread here.   As it's often the case with these 1-2 rapid fire storms, it's the boundary layer temps that are the most consistent for in the ointment across the GEFS. 

  To increase the difficulty, the initial Sun-Mon event has everyone fully in the warm sector, so we'll have to see how quickly it can pull and cold in for the second.

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Oy-VEY! 

[JDClapper]

12z CMC and GFS offer some hope for a little more wintry precip mixed in...

 

[Pghsnow]

Canadian brings a little snow to WPa. Tough to hang your hat on the Canadian though. 

[Icewoz]

The ever elusive NYE storm, lol

[MaineJay]

Tough finding the cold for this one.