January 5-6, 2025 | Winter Storm Threat

[Weathertop]

12z Euro run got my attention, but it was not just the digital snow that inspired me to start my first thread. Supporting teleconnections, 500 level Ensemble looks, and a just miss GFS OP run caused me to take the leap. Hope that it pans out for somebody to cash in.

 

 

 

 

[Penn State]

Great opening thread! @Weathertop ..I really like this timeframe as well. That Euro run was awesome! Shades of the big ones of the past! 

[1816]

2 hours ago, Weathertop said:

12z Euro run got my attention, but it was not just the digital snow that inspired me to start my first thread. Supporting teleconnections, 500 level Ensemble looks, and a just miss GFS OP run caused me to take the leap. Hope that it pans out for somebody to cash in.

 

 

 

 

Also that's about as widespread a pasting as you're likely to see. Lot of happy people out there if this were to occur. Merry Christmas to all. 

[Weathertop]

18z GFS…good to see something there, so far out, at least. Maybe I’ve been watching too much football but it almost has a hybrid Apps Runner/Miller B look to it. It’s like the primary low tries to hand off to the coastal but then pulls the ball back and runs up the west-side of the apps, on a keeper. Should be fun to see how this transpires.

[Undertakerson2.0]

15 minutes ago, Weathertop said:

18z GFS…good to see something there, so far out, at least. Maybe I’ve been watching too much football but it almost has a hybrid Apps Runner/Miller B look to it. It’s like the primary low tries to hand off to the coastal but then pulls the ball back and runs up the west-side of the apps, on a keeper. Should be fun to see how this transpires.

two of the 12z GEFS set did exactly this. (anothe 2-3 were solid bangers, 2 looked like flat out cutters or were warm here, a couple skirted south - you get the picture)

Take away is the requisite pieces still appear as solid signals - how they align and then manifest as the final solution is still very much speculative. 

[StretchCT]

5 hours ago, Weathertop said:

12z Euro run got my attention, but it was not just the digital snow that inspired me to start my first thread. Supporting teleconnections, 500 level Ensemble looks, and a just miss GFS OP run caused me to take the leap. Hope that it pans out for somebody to cash in.

 

 

 

 

Weathertop brining the goods!

[Penn State]

Just look at these members 👀 ..There are members at 67, 74, 76, 82, and 84 mb.. all near the cost. Wow. 😮 

[Penn State]

[Penn State]

North Pacific (BSR).. Seems to be a signal as well. Looking around 160W, 50N.. This would be 19 days prior (12/17)

Edited December 23, 2024 by Penn State

[Weathertop]

0z Euro Op run is different at 500 mb compared to the magical 12z run and with surface level presentation of energy but at least something is still there this far out.

[Weathertop]

EPS comparing 12z run to 0z run.

[Electric_CityWx]

Is this for this storm potential?

[MaineJay]

6 hours ago, Penn State said:

North Pacific (BSR).. Seems to be a signal as well. Looking around 160W, 50N.. This would be 19 days prior (12/17)

I interpret that to mean something in the lower Mississippi valley, and with that front draped over top, something that might not gain a ton of latitude.  For reference, I use Kodiak Island for Maine.

So I would favor the mid Atlantic, and even the SE perhaps going by this.

[Undertakerson2.0]

13 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I interpret that to mean something in the lower Mississippi valley, and with that front draped over top, something that might not gain a ton of latitude.  For reference, I use Kodiak Island for Maine.

So I would favor the mid Atlantic, and even the SE perhaps going by this.

Indeed, as I mentioned, several GEFS were "skirted south" 

Edit: 12z AIFS was similarly "south" yesterday

Edited December 23, 2024 by Undertakerson2.0

[TC1]

23 minutes ago, Electric_CityWx said:

Is this for this storm potential?

It's pretty much just for "Oooooo... pretty" commentary at this point. Any snow maps for something 12 days out is purely fantasy land on any model, so I wouldn't be putting any kind of weight on that 12z run right now.

[Electric_CityWx]

13 minutes ago, TC1 said:

It's pretty much just for "Oooooo... pretty" commentary at this point. Any snow maps for something 12 days out is purely fantasy land on any model, so I wouldn't be putting any kind of weight on that 12z run right now.

Thanks.  Yeah it's way out there.  My eyes glaze over and I smell burning toast while reading.  Better with visuals 🤣😂. Russian Christmas will be white, like last year!

Edited December 23, 2024 by Electric_CityWx

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

From my post yesterday

Quote

two of the 12z GEFS set did exactly this. (another 2-3 were solid bangers, 2 looked like flat out cutters or were warm here, a couple skirted south - you get the picture)

Edited December 23, 2024 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

6z GEFS are NOT going to support this Op run - barely at all in fact

 

[BuckeyeGal]

48 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

6z GEFS are NOT going to support this Op run - barely at all in fact

 

Glad, because once storms go to Cutterville, they seem to stay there. UNLESS the ensembles disagree.

[Penn State]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I interpret that to mean something in the lower Mississippi valley, and with that front draped over top, something that might not gain a ton of latitude.  For reference, I use Kodiak Island for Maine.

So I would favor the mid Atlantic, and even the SE perhaps going by this.

I would agree.. There was a website (Joe - Organic Forecasting) or something like that, which had the US map overlay. I just remember 160/50 as being right by the Delmarva. I know it’s not 1:1 by any means, but that’s the region I would think too. 

[George Acton]

I knew the Euro was teasing. No way a pattern flips that quick. Lots to sort out...

[Penn State]

2 hours ago, TC1 said:

It's pretty much just for "Oooooo... pretty" commentary at this point. Any snow maps for something 12 days out is purely fantasy land on any model, so I wouldn't be putting any kind of weight on that 12z run right now.

They sure are fun to look at it, but I would agree that it doesn’t mean too much right now. One takeaway from those, if they’re there consistently is major storm potential, with higher end QPF, which I think the upcoming pattern has the potential for.. If and when.. the MJO can enhance the subtropics to match with that cold air dump. 

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, George Acton said:

I knew the Euro was teasing. No way a pattern flips that quick. Lots to sort out...

These things can delay.. I was looking at some old screenshots I took from 2016, and there’s one from January 7th that looks a whole lot like that Euro run for the 17th.. but the storm didn’t happen until the 21st-23rd, about a week later. 

[MaineJay]

Timing and strength differences. Thought about staying a thread for a low probability event around new years.

Gif consists of GEFS, with the approximate trof locations, then the ECMWF and GFS, showing how they get the "idea", but obviously not the particulars.

[Indygirl]

So if this time period is to pan out for your region, then I’m thinking a storm for the OV will be a day or two, before? 
Bamwx says we have a huge pattern shift coming, especially for cold temps.