White Christmas

[StretchCT]

Per this graphics, here are the historical chances of you having a White Christmas.  I think we do this every year. Track the models and post our hopes and dreams of a white one.

 

[StretchCT]

Start with this one, not looking very white. Actually the whole run stinks. 

[Hoosier]

I'm in the area that historically gets one over 40% of the time, but lately it seems like it's 10% lol

[Hiramite]

Unfortunately, the chances have been trending downward.  Here's a 1991-2020 map.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/are-you-dreaming-white-christmas#:~:text=So%2C it's not surprising that,white Christmas than experienced increases.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2021/12/chances-of-a-white-christmas-have-melted-a-bit-in-many-areas-of-us-since-1980s.html

[Hiramite]

12 hours ago, StretchCT said:

 

 

I realize this is a simplified map, but these percentages look awfully high to me.

[StretchCT]

[SnowloverSid]

I am expecting a pre-Christmas cutter for the Northeast. I am not being pessimistic— only realistic because it seems to occur regularly on Dec. 20-24 each year. It is usually the rainiest part of every December in the Northeast. I hope I am wrong about this year.

[StretchCT]

Theres the cutter! Day before Christmas eve

 

[clm]

I have gotten a couple of white Christmas's in my lifetime here on Long Island, but this will be most likely the closest I get this year.

 

[StretchCT]

Run today has that cutter from yesterday jump to the coast in New England early Christmas Eve. Temps are close all the way to the coast.

 

CFS has a nice day for most of us

 

[SnowloverSid]

On 12/5/2024 at 3:09 PM, StretchCT said:

Theres the cutter! Day before Christmas eve

 

I am completely unsurprised!

[Electric_CityWx]

14 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Run today has that cutter from yesterday jump to the coast in New England early Christmas Eve. Temps are close all the way to the coast.

 

CFS has a nice day for most of us

 

Why such a difference in 540 line between ECM and CFS?  Just a timing thing this far out?

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 hour ago, Electric_CityWx said:

Why such a difference in 540 line between ECM and CFS?  Just a timing thing this far out?

Well, sorta kinda a timing thing.

As in - "it's never a good time to use the CFS for anything". Or "posting CFS is a waste of time". 

That kind of timing thing.

 

[Electric_CityWx]

8 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Well, sorta kinda a timing thing.

As in - "it's never a good time to use the CFS for anything". Or "posting CFS is a waste of time". 

That kind of timing thing.

 

I'm just a lurker asking questions 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Undertakerson2.0]

55 minutes ago, Electric_CityWx said:

I'm just a lurker asking questions 🤷🏻‍♂️

We all have our own way of pointing things out.

Mine is mostly to be a smart ass.

It's nothing personal against you, deliberately or obtusely - just my cynical side showing through. 

[Electric_CityWx]

14 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

We all have our own way of pointing things out.

Mine is mostly to be a smart ass.

It's nothing personal against you, deliberately or obtusely - just my cynical side showing through. 

Oh I didn't take it personal.  I figured 😆

[Hiramite]

CPC's 3-4 week outlook discussion, in part, that includes Christmas. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

....As the MJO attempts to propagate across the Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty regarding whether the signal will remain coupled to enhanced convection as it begins destructively interfering with the base state. The GEFS dynamical model solutions show a more robust MJO evolution, while the ECMWF weakens the signal while continuing its eastward propagation. This uncertain MJO evolution is likely to play a role in the Weeks 3 and 4 outlook, as a midlatitude response to western Pacific convection can contribute to a pattern change across North America.

A manual blend of dynamical and statistical model guidance results in a 500-hPa height anomaly field with troughing over the Aleutians, ridging over the western CONUS, and weak troughing over the Great Lakes region. This pattern is a fairly substantial change from the Week-2 guidance and is suggestive of mean enhanced southerly flow into Alaska and a potential for northerly flow into the central and eastern CONUS. This pattern increases the potential for cold air outbreaks; however, with a strengthened polar vortex feature, a positive AO signal, and a warm pattern antecedent to the Weeks 3 and 4 period, there may not be significant reservoirs of cold air in place to invade the Lower 48. Furthermore, the lack of a negative NAO pattern over the North Atlantic may provide a means for quick evacuation of any cold airmasses that do drop into the eastern US. Therefore, the Weeks 3 and 4 outlook contains considerable uncertainty, and the pattern during this time period may be marked by transitional features.

 

 

[StretchCT]

Euro control still with a transfer to the coast, but looks like the lakes area gets white.  Skeptical of the 540 staying that south for the coast. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Christmas miracle?

[StretchCT]

Getting into GFS/Euro long range.  

 

[Pghsnow]

[clm]

For me.....

 

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

 

[losetoa6turbo]

Xmas is wayyy wayy out there but that said maybe there's something to be taken from the op model runs that have been hinting at cut off or negativity tilted lows definitely at day 7 to 10 days out . Maybe we get a cutoff on Xmas similar to March 20th 1958 😁. We can only hope .

Edited December 10, 2024 by losetoa6turbo