Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 4, 2024 Social Media Crew Posted December 4, 2024 (edited) Brrr… It’s cold out there! But.. where’s the snow? Well.. there’s no guarantee that cold will be accompanied by significant precipitation of course, as our current pattern has demonstrated. Sure, we’ve had frequent cold air intrusions.. and even a couple elusive (at least for the last couple of years…) clippers! Modeling has indicated a consistent storm signal around December 10th.. however, the pattern for an impactful winter storm seems to have become unfavorable. A system is likely to develop.. but it looks to cut into the Great Lakes. However.. there might be more to the story.. but, as always, it’s complicated! The question.. Can a storm form behind the initial wave, delivering an impactful winter storm to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast? Maybe.. but it might be too warm, or whatever forms may be OTS.. but maybe, just maybe.. Mother Nature can land its punch, and hopefully better than Iron Mike on Netflix.. lol 😂 I’m skeptical.. as I’ve just not seen the consistency in modeling, especially on the ensembles. But.. It’s worth a discussion at least! Stay tuned.. Here’s the 00z GFS and GDPS. Happy Tracking! 🤓 00z GFS | Surface Map (Hours 168-240) 00z GDPS | Surface Map (Hours 168-240) Edited December 9, 2024 by Penn State 6
Admin MaineJay Posted December 4, 2024 Admin Posted December 4, 2024 Fascinating how there's this kind of oscillatory behavior in the GFS. If you notice, the "off" runs off 6z and 18z are noticeably more organized (and slower perhaps) than the runs that receive fresh sounding data. 5
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 4, 2024 Author Social Media Crew Posted December 4, 2024 The 12z GFS had a potent Miller A type of system moving out of the gulf.. I think the key may be separation from the initial wave, and that H to the north. 1028 on that run.. wasn't there in previous runs. 2
Undertakerson2.0 Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 Ugh - please just make it go away already... None of these solutions appear to have much cold with which to work. Ironically, we seem to warm up nicely prior to the timing. I'd temper wintery expectations. We could use some more soil moisture 'round these parts though, I suppose. 1 2
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 4, 2024 Author Social Media Crew Posted December 4, 2024 6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Ugh - please just make it go away already... None of these solutions appear to have much cold with which to work. Ironically, we seem to warm up nicely prior to the timing. I'd temper wintery expectations. We could use some more soil moisture 'round these parts though, I suppose. Indeed. There was a point where I thought there actually would be some cold air to work with, but alas.. that is not the case. If the MJO can maintain some life, might be another opportunity during the 2nd week of January. I'll keep my fingers crossed for this and that!
Undertakerson2.0 Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 3 minutes ago, Penn State said: Indeed. There was a point where I thought there actually would be some cold air to work with, but alas.. that is not the case. If the MJO can maintain some life, might be another opportunity during the 2nd week of January. I'll keep my fingers crossed for this and that! Ideally, we could get even minor snow pack to help all around. Having pack that melts would be great for soil conditions before hard January freezes set in. There's still an lower end chance that this potential could slow enough to a) allow cold back in ahead, or b) to get cranking enough to pull down some cold from aloft. Still a looonggg way to go 4
TLChip Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 I’m happy that it’s still popping up, until our current storm pushes out and all the ingredients come together for the next batch it’s still a big question mark. Temper your expectations it’s only December, I’d favor a cutter thought, we need the rain anyway. 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 4, 2024 Author Social Media Crew Posted December 4, 2024 12z Euro certainly has a more favorable look than in the past.. There's a lot to iron out, but it feels like the major models are closer than they have been thus far. Once again, separation and H to the north and west are things I would like to see more of. Also feels really close in terms of wanting things to phase early enough for a storm, but not such that it cuts, or late enough that it's OTS. Thread the needle? 1 2
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 4, 2024 Author Social Media Crew Posted December 4, 2024 There's definitely a growing contingent of lows of gathering off the coast on the EPS... We'll see what happens! 2 1
Admin MaineJay Posted December 4, 2024 Admin Posted December 4, 2024 Just looking at this for funzies. But let's see how better separation between waves works. I'm thinking more organized, but too much space, and it might be warmer and wester? Other factors at play too, but just thinking out loud. Or more like pre season, get back in model watching shape. 2 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 4, 2024 Author Social Media Crew Posted December 4, 2024 (edited) Nice! Edited December 4, 2024 by Penn State 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 4, 2024 Author Social Media Crew Posted December 4, 2024 Accompanying snow map 😜 2 2
Undertakerson2.0 Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 10 minutes ago, Penn State said: Accompanying snow map 😜 0.6" snow directly over my house I approve 🙂 2
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 4, 2024 Author Social Media Crew Posted December 4, 2024 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 0.6" snow directly over my house I approve 🙂 You beat me.. I have 0.5” over mine.. but.. that 16-18” swath is only a county away! 1
Undertakerson2.0 Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 4 minutes ago, Penn State said: You beat me.. I have 0.5” over mine.. but.. that 16-18” swath is only a county away! would be cement, I suspect. I'll take a pass. I like the 1.50+" QPF the models show. 3
TLChip Posted December 5, 2024 Posted December 5, 2024 2 hours ago, Penn State said: Nice! Was it the gfs that had the 980 cutter yesterday?
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 5, 2024 Author Social Media Crew Posted December 5, 2024 29 minutes ago, TLChip said: Was it the gfs that had the 980 cutter yesterday? Probably.. lol.. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a cutter at 00z too, but I’m holding out some hope! 1
Undertakerson2.0 Posted December 5, 2024 Posted December 5, 2024 00z Euro, basically an Apps Runner. Bouncy bouncy.
Wtkidz Posted December 5, 2024 Posted December 5, 2024 A week away and we know that nothing ever changes… And if you believe that …. 1 2
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 5, 2024 Author Social Media Crew Posted December 5, 2024 Lots of spread on the EPS.. but an improved ensemble look overall. 1
Undertakerson2.0 Posted December 5, 2024 Posted December 5, 2024 Intrigue builds... Mega LongWave ready to transport vort max out of GOM - will the cold make it in time? 1
Admin MaineJay Posted December 5, 2024 Admin Posted December 5, 2024 Would like to see that lobe sliding down the west of Hudson Bay to drive further SSE. 1
JDClapper Posted December 5, 2024 Posted December 5, 2024 12z EPS is about 25% chance of measuring white here in CPA. Always tend to feel a bit more optimistic after a surprise overperformer. Haha 1
Admin MaineJay Posted December 5, 2024 Admin Posted December 5, 2024 4 hours ago, MaineJay said: Would like to see that lobe sliding down the west of Hudson Bay to drive further SSE. You can see how differently the ECMWF and GFS handle this energy.
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