December 4-5, 2024 | Arctic Front

[BuckeyeGal]

Many folks have been mentioning this as something to keep an eye on. The snow amounts may not be great, but because of (finally) cold ground, high winds, and possible squalls, there may actually be a significant impact on travel. 

Still snowing on hour 60 in many places but wanted to show all of the models available at that hour.

[BuckeyeGal]

Winds..

[NWOhioChaser]

Yep, winds are going to be brutal on Thursday. Yeah, some flurries and some snow squalls if you’re in the right place. But the wind chills are the real story here. With these winds, sub-zero likely. Local forecasts say -15 Thursday morning. 
 

With no snow to go with it, can’t say I’m too enthralled…kind of makes me pissy.

[BuckeyeGal]

1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Yep, winds are going to be brutal on Thursday. Yeah, some flurries and some snow squalls if you’re in the right place. But the wind chills are the real story here. With these winds, sub-zero likely. Local forecasts say -15 Thursday morning. 
 

With no snow to go with it, can’t say I’m too enthralled…kind of makes me pissy.

It makes me pissy, too! What's the point of bone-chilling cold if I can't get a snow day? 😡

[StormfanaticInd]

3 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Yep, winds are going to be brutal on Thursday. Yeah, some flurries and some snow squalls if you’re in the right place. But the wind chills are the real story here. With these winds, sub-zero likely. Local forecasts say -15 Thursday morning. 
 

With no snow to go with it, can’t say I’m too enthralled…kind of makes me pissy.

I think there will be snow with this...

[StormfanaticInd]

Impressive 

[Hiramite]

Arctic fronts are notorious for squeezing out whatever moisture there is in the air.  Hopefully most areas can pick-up at least a quick coating...unlikely not enough for a "snow day" BG, but hopefully some snow-globe squalls.

Edited December 3, 2024 by Hiramite

[BuckeyeGal]

I wish it wasn't coming overnight! D:<

[OSUWx2]

54 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I wish it wasn't coming overnight! D:<

I know, I was thinking the same thing. Would be nice to see at like 8pm or 8-9am!

[StormfanaticInd]

Kinda surprised with the lack of wind advisories with this system.

[BuckeyeGal]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Kinda surprised with the lack of wind advisories with this system.

Me, too.. most of the Ohio offices seem to be handling it with HWO's. ILN mentions that travel will likely be impacted overnight (and possibly Thursday morning).

[Hiramite]

Appears that biggest snow impacts to be northern part of the "viewing area" but will be some dicey traveling when the front barrels thru in much of OH.    Power outages are possibility due to the wind that folks should prepare for.

Then the Lakes fire up with a somewhat uncommon widespread event forecasted for NE OH.

[BuckeyeGal]

Dude. Whoever is on the overnight shift at ILN is the bomb. This is a fantastic write-up!

Quote

Snow shower/squall potential: Along the front, a band of
showers is expected, moving through from northwest to southeast.
Thermal profiles are not perfectly favorable for maximum
dendrite production, suggesting the intensity of the showers may
not reach the worst case scenario. In addition, surface
temperatures will likely be a few degrees above freezing as they
move through, limiting the potential for flash freeze conditions
on area roadways. The PV anomaly is close enough to support the
strongest showers/squalls along the I-70 corridor with weaker
showers to the southwest down the I-71 corridor. A few showers
linger behind the cold front, but mostly dry conditions support
only minor accumulations as the cold front moves through. While
impacts to roadways will be possible, there remains enough
doubt in this particular scenario to keep hazard mentions at
SPS level.

Wind gust potential: As the cold front moves through, the
strongest wind and wind gusts likely accompany the shower
activity with additional strong winds behind the front for a few
hours. This will likely be the best chance for seeing wind gusts
in the 40 to 50 mph range before coming back down within the 30
to 40 mph range. Since advisory levels winds are not expected to
last for multiple hours, will once again mention this potential
for isolated wind gusts to 50 mph in the SPS.

Wind chill: Thursday morning will feel quite differently to
Wednesday evening. Temperatures drop into the low 20s and teens
results in wind chills in the -5 to 5 degree range area wind.
The coldest values will occur in eastern Indiana and western
Ohio. Once again, these values are near cold weather advisory
thresholds, so mention will be provided in the SPS.

Impacts summary: Given all of the above conditions, hazardous
conditions are anticipated late this evening through Thursday
morning. Slick spots should be expected on untreated surfaces
and bridges and underpasses. At the time of the snow showers,
brief periods of hazardous travel on all roadways should be
anticipated. This potential for slick conditions lingers into
Thursday morning due to the cold temperatures. If any of the
above hazards worsen, an advisory (winter, cold weather, wind)
will likely be needed.

 

 

[junior]

I'm off tomorrow thankfully. Sounds like a bitter night/morning commute. 

[Hiramite]

Ohio Wind Advisory criteria is "sustained wind speeds 30-39 mph with wind gusts 46-57 mph."  I "clicked" around the State, didn't find any area expecting such.

I believe the Snow Squall Parameter is only available 6 hrs out so this is something to keep an eye for this afternoon/evening.

[Hiramite]

CLE's words of "warning".

Quote

Key Messages for the next 36 hours and beyond:
- A multi-hazard winter storm will enter the region today with
  winter weather and wind hazards impacting the local area
  starting this afternoon for wind and this evening for snow.
- Winds will increase this afternoon with southwest gusts to 45
  mph ahead of the main Arctic front.
- The onset of snow across the area will be quick and
  significant as an Arctic front is expected to move through the
  area this evening. This front will be guided into the area
  with a band of heavy snow that will cross the entire area,
  starting in the I-75 corridor of Northwest Ohio around 9 PM to
  far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania after Midnight.
  This band of snow will feature quickly deteriorating
  conditions, including a quick inch or two of snow, visibility
  of 1/4 mile or less, and wind gusts to 50 mph. Travel could
  quickly become difficult across the region. This threat may
  need to be messaged further with Special Weather Statements or
  perhaps Snow Squall Warnings tonight.
- Behind the Arctic front, the lake effect snow machine returns
  with a broad area of the primary and secondary snow belt of
  Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania receiving warning
  and advisory level accumulating snowfall. Snow will be very
  dependent on where bands persist in the west to northwest
  flow, higher terrain/the upslope component to the lake effect,
  aid from upstream connections from other Great Lakes, and
  strength of the wind of the boundary layer.
- A Lake Effect Snow Warning has been issued for Erie and
  Crawford Counties in PA and Ashtabula County, Ohio from 4 PM
  today to 1 AM Saturday. The remaining Lake Effect Snow Warning
  and Winter Weather Advisories are valid from 4 PM today to 4
  AM Friday.
- Winds will continue to be strong behind the Arctic front
  tonight into Thursday, especially near the lakeshore. Winds
  will allow for blowing snow, low visibility, and could damage
  trees and power lines. Additionally, the gusty winds and
  density of the large snowpack across far Northeast Ohio and
  Northwest Pennsylvania could result in damage to structures.

 

[Hassaywx1223]

Not many live in northeast Ohio but this is a full snow storm for us here in Youngstown we’re forecasted to get 4-6 inches with winds and the squall and lake effect the snow belt is expected to get 9-20 inches winter weather advisories and warnings are out so this for us that dont live in the heart of the snow belt will be the first true storm of the year 

Edited December 4, 2024 by Hassaywx1223

[StormfanaticInd]

The temp drop behind this front is going to be impressive 

[RobB]

1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The temp drop behind this front is going to be impressive 

For sure.

 

46 at my house currently.  Breezy though so it does not feel warm...

[NWOhioChaser]

Well shucks, left out of the party. 

[Hassaywx1223]

First round coming through wasn’t expected quick dusting Santa is down 😂😂 got to fix him after work wet wet snow. 

[NWOhioChaser]

Changing to rain on the southern end, or am I missing something? 

Edited December 5, 2024 by NWOhioChaser

[junior]

Nice rain/sleet squall coming through here.

[Chinook]

It would be hilarious if I saw lightning from this

[btbucks]

Front pushing through