Dec. 4-6, 2024 | NE/MidAtl | Clippah/Light snow/Squalls perhaps

[MaineJay]

Looks like a fast moving impulse wants to dive SE through the region. As per the theme, it might be a little starved of moisture, but at least temps might not be the worry.

The ECMWF is most aggressive, but with a historically negative tilt bias, skeptical eye might be warranted. It really dug it in too.

GFS seems to be much flatter, and while there is *some* degree of phasing, it's a bit disorganized and strung out .

I haven't delved too far, but I'm guessing the ECMWF bundles the energy quicker, and brings it though as one piece, where the GFS keeps the parcels more distinct.

 

AIFS might be the most organized of them all.

Ukie had a Euro get, just doesn't dig as deep.

[Jon Snow]

Thank you MJ, no matter what pans out for my area, it is nice to be back to following these systems.  I have tried to log on more over the summer and fall than I usually do.  After many years here it seems I know many of you much better than the people I see in my everyday life.  And probably like half of you more than I should, and, will shit, can't ever keep Bilbo's quote straight.  Guess I need more coffee and snowmaps.

[MaineJay]

9 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Thank you MJ, no matter what pans out for my area, it is nice to be back to following these systems.  I have tried to log on more over the summer and fall than I usually do.  After many years here it seems I know many of you much better than the people I see in my everyday life.  And probably like half of you more than I should, and, will shit, can't ever keep Bilbo's quote straight.  Guess I need more coffee and snowmaps.

Agreed, active patterns are more fun for many reasons. Snow chances being the top of the list, but mostly the enjoyment of watching the weather with others who also share the passion.  

  At this point in my life, snow is becoming a bit more of a nuisance, but I make some changes in my life that actually makes it easier to deal with in many ways.

   It's just nice that we are getting started early. I'm not going to extrapolate that out too far, but it feels like winter has begun on schedule this year.

[MaineJay]

EPS has 10% or so of members with 6"+, so there's a small chance at something bigger up this way. I suspect these are inverted trof type solutions

[Electric_CityWx]

Looks like I have a small window to get Christmas decorations up.  Behind schedule as that's life.  Thanks for the heads-up MJ!

[MaineJay]

GEFS and EPS scoring similarly at D5. Though we can't assess the 12z EPS, and with the 12z GFS products solidly outperforming it's 0zc counterpart, one might infer the 12Z EPS does the same. 

 Might lead me to put more weight into the 12z suite going forward

[MaineJay]

12z ukie is deeper. 

A more widespread, light event feels almost foreign.  Seems like we have so many boom or bust storms, you get a few 1-3"/2-4" type events and you can make a decent season.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Thanks for all the analysis, MJ. Yes, it would he a shame for snow lovers to see this great cold start miss out. Great new for ski resorts with the cold start. One big one here had to delay one werk cuz of horrible brush fire about a month ago.

[geeter1]

If you dare to trust Accu Weather for my locale... 😎

Coplay, PA Winter Weather Forecast _ AccuWeather.html

[TC1]

Judging from where the models are at right now, this looks like it could be an inch at best in my area from on and off snow showers. But, that's right now. With everything still bouncing around from run to run, and the additional fact we're not in range for any of the short range models yet, we'll have to see where things go. The cold will certainly be there, but with the low currently looking to go off to my north by a fair bit... I'm not expecting this to be on the high end of the oh so trustworthy 1-3" Accuweather outlook.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

One thing to watch here guys is there is a bit of a milder push( ok, lesser cold) . So if that is timed properly, could enhance this puppy a bit. Perhaps that was what 2 of the model runs MJ posted were seeing ? Or i am 2 drinks into it decorating the tree with the family , and full of shit 😀

[RobB]

10 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

One thing to watch here guys is there is a bit of a milder push( ok, lesser cold) . So if that is timed properly, could enhance this puppy a bit. Perhaps that was what 2 of the model runs MJ posted were seeing ? Or i am 2 drinks into it decorating the tree with the family , and full of shit 😀

Can it not be both?!?! 😄🤪

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

https://share.newsbreak.com/a5jlavh3?s=i16

[JDClapper]

T-1" (at best) event here in CPA. 

How many T's add up to something?

 

[clm]

23 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

One thing to watch here guys is there is a bit of a milder push( ok, lesser cold) . So if that is timed properly, could enhance this puppy a bit. Perhaps that was what 2 of the model runs MJ posted were seeing ? Or i am 2 drinks into it decorating the tree with the family , and full of shit 😀

Well if you just ate a big meal, you just very well may be.  🤪

[Jon Snow]

On 11/30/2024 at 8:11 PM, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

One thing to watch here guys is there is a bit of a milder push( ok, lesser cold) . So if that is timed properly, could enhance this puppy a bit. Perhaps that was what 2 of the model runs MJ posted were seeing ? Or i am 2 drinks into it decorating the tree with the family , and full of shit 😀

Well, if you finally got all he decorations up and started belting out the star spangled banner, you may be 2 or more drinks into it.  But at least you had a good time, right?

[Electric_CityWx]

Here's what bgm is saying so far;

As this clipper system dives into the great lakes snow showers
begin to develop over the region Wednesday afternoon. Very
strong pressure gradient and cold air advection surge is
associated with this system signifying strong winds. Therefore
decided to go higher than NBM Wednesday night through Thursday
blending in some NBM 90th. The bulk of the precip is expected to
fall Wednesday night into Thursday. Some slight topographic
enhancement may occur as well. However, with the best lift north
of the region QPF looks to be a tenth of an inch or less with
little QPF further southwest. Instability parameters are
present Thursday afternoon signifying the potential for some
snow squalls as the system moves east with lake effect
developing on the back side.

[Electric_CityWx]

Did something happen with ncep plume viewer?  I can't get passed 11/26

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, Electric_CityWx said:

Did something happen with ncep plume viewer?  I can't get passed 11/26

I noticed the same thing. Might be worth emailing their support.

[Electric_CityWx]

Didn't know there was a WPC super ensemble plume viewer.  It's marked non-operational, not maintained 24/7 and internal use only though.

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wse_members/plumes/index.php

Edited December 2 by Electric_CityWx

[clm]

1 hour ago, Electric_CityWx said:

Didn't know there was a WPC super ensemble plume viewer.  It's marked non-operational, not maintained 24/7 and internal use only though.

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wse_members/plumes/index.php

Just tried that site myself and no matter what run I choose, it shows the same graph.

[Electric_CityWx]

14 minutes ago, clm said:

Just tried that site myself and no matter what run I choose, it shows the same graph.

I dunno... Seems to change for me when selecting between 00 and 12, and then when  selecting between the qpf/sno/ice🤷🏻‍♂️

Here's a copy/paste of my address bar again

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wse_members/plumes/index.php

Chalk it up to 'non-operational'?

Edited December 2 by Electric_CityWx

[Solstice]

Going to be a nice and blustery Friday morning regardless of what happens on the snow side!

[geeter1]

 Certainly won't need to shovel or plow, but it looks like it might be white ... 😎

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

It is a bit of a shame with this one. Like i suspected, this clippa’ has a little oomph to it, but the track is too far north. We needed a diver.