TS Sara| Peak 50mph 997mb | terminated

[StretchCT]

Yeah I guess 19 is a pretty high number. Current satellite shows it coming together.

Earlier guidance had this going through the Yucatan channel or over the Yucatan, into the GOM and over to Florida. Latest involves Honduras.

 

it's slow moving, and with land so close,  may not develop too strong. But... there have been storms this year that have developed right off the coast, so it bears watching. I swear I saw earlier guidance that had some models as a major hurricane. That page has 404'd.  

most modeling has whatever is left after land interaction recurving. 

Edited November 18 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Found some of the earlier intensity forecasts that raised some eyebrows.  SHIPS was very aggressive. All have trended down but it really depends on how soon it's core gets up and running and how far it is from land. 

GFS had this as a major, maybe even cat 4 storm earlier when it wasn't obstructed. But it has trended way west over land.

[StretchCT]

Coming along, good amount of lightning

[btbucks]

Getting hurricane Mitch vibes from this storm.

[StretchCT]

Honduras is going to have major flooding from this per 0zGFS. 1201mm is 47".  That whole area on the north coast is over 25"

[StretchCT]

Honduras is getting smashed but everyone else might end up ok as this looks to be forming really close to the coast or maybe inland. 

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

Sara is 50mph and 998 this morning but NHC is essentially working in a blackout of information. All they have is Goes 16 which isn't showing a low level center.

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

There hasn’t been much observational data near the center of Sara 
overnight and early this morning aside from the 1-minute GOES-16 
data, which shows a large area of deep convection across northern 
Honduras and over the Gulf of Honduras.  Belize radar has provided 
some information, but the center is still just beyond the range of 
this radar, and there aren't any surface observations near the 
center either.  Finding the center has been challenging overnight.  
Recent GOES-16 imagery shows increased mid-level rotation over water 
about 40 miles north of the advisory position, but there is no 
evidence of any low-level center re-formation at this time.  The 
initial position is based on a combination of the satellite imagery 
and continuity from the previous NHC forecast.  The initial 
intensity estimate remains unchanged from the previous advisory at 
40 kt.

Sara is estimated to be moving westward or 280/8 kt.  A mid-level 
ridge positioned to the NW of Sara over the Gulf of Mexico should 
cause Sara to slow down today.  The mid-level ridge is forecast to 
move slowly eastward toward Florida late in the weekend, allowing 
for Sara to turn west-northwestward by late Saturday across the 
Gulf of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize early 
Sunday.  The model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the 
track, and the new NHC track forecast is mostly an update of the 
previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids.

While environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for some 
strengthening, Sara's relatively broad structure and proximity to 
land are likely to prevent significant intensification during the 
next 24 hours.  Slight strengthening is then forecast while the 
system is farther offshore before it approaches Belize.  The bulk 
of the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and 
the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.  After Sara moves inland over Belize on Sunday, it should 
quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.  The NHC 
forecast calls for dissipation beyond 72 hours, as in the previous 
forecast.  While most of the global models still indicate that Sara 
is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, some 
leftover low-level vorticity from Sara's remnants should merge with 
an elongated trough or front over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle 
of next week.  Given the strong wind shear and cooler waters, no 
tropical redevelopment is expected over the Gulf of Mexico.

 

[StretchCT]

Pretty much the same - same location, same speeds and mb.  45mph now but poor Honduras getting drowned.

[StretchCT]

Sara has dumped over 40" of rain in parts of Honduras.  It made landfall in Belize and is expected to emerge in the Gulf, but not regain tropical characteristics. 

Spoiler

Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Since making landfall, Sara appears to be gradually weakening as it
straddles the area between Mexico and Guatemala this afternoon.
Convective activity has remained somewhat intact near the center,
though the low-level cloud motions from the GOES-16 1 minute
mesoscale sector suggest the circulation definition is already
becoming more diffuse. The initial intensity remains 30 kt this
advisory after the system was downgraded to a depression earlier at
1800 UTC.

As expected Sara has sped up a bit today, with its initial motion
now estimated at 300/10 kt. A turn more northwestward is expected
tonight before the depression opens up into a trough at some point
tonight or tomorrow, in good agreement with the bulk of the
forecast aids. As previously discussed, the track aids do extend
further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of
Mexico, mainly because they track the remnant vorticity of the
system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone.
However, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara is
anticipated to contribute to enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf
coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where the
Weather Prediction Center currently has a slight risk for excessive
rainfall that day.

Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from 
the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of 
rain at some locations. Heavy rainfall is continuing over portions 
of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America this afternoon.

 

[StretchCT]

Remnants Of Sara Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024
 
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Sara no 
longer has a well organized circulation, and therefore has 
degenerated into a trough of low pressure. The trough is beginning 
to emerge back over water in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While 
strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit tropical 
development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with 
an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along 
the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.
 
This is the last NHC advisory on Sara. For more information on the
ongoing rainfall threat in southern Mexico/Central America and the
expected heavy rainfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, see products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 19.0N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED