Social Media Crew Popular Post Penn State Posted November 12 Social Media Crew Popular Post Posted November 12 (edited) In the journal Weatherwise, J.R. Fulks (1954) wrote an article titled “The Early November Snowstorm of 1953”. As the author recalls, snow began falling on the morning of November 5th as an area of low pressure deepened off the Atlantic Coast. Snow spread north and west across parts of Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York. Strong winds battered the coast, with a top gust recorded at 98 mph in Rhode Island! Snowfall accumulations of 6-12” were widespread, and a narrow band of 1-2 feet of snow fell across interior parts of Pennsylvania and New York. I’ve included a surface map from NOAA’s library in the spoiler. As most of you on this forum know, I thoroughly appreciate the historical context of past winter storms. So.. Could this early November snowstorm happen again? 🤔 Sure! Will it happen? It’s complicated.. but it is the 7th closest analog according to the CPC 🧐 (Check out the details in the spoiler). So.. Where do things stand currently? Well.. it’s been a warm and dry fall season in majority of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. But.. a pattern change looks to be on the horizon. There are a number indicators suggesting a pattern change for the second half of November. This pattern change may set the stage for our potential fall storm. The MJO is in its active phases for North America, having rounded through phases 7 and 8, now located in phase 1. That’s favorable for a potential storm during this timeframe. It’s also favorable for enhanced tropical development.. Snowicane anyone? 🌀…But, that’s “wishful” thinking lol Now, according to the teleconnections there’s also indication of a favorable alignment. The AO and NAO are trending negative, delivering the potential for a cold air injection and blocking. The PNA is trending positive, delivering the potential for ridging to the west. There’s even a reflection in the North Pacific from November 2nd, though it’s a little tucked from the ideal location of 160W, 50N. It does fit the timeframe though, as we look 17-21 days from the depiction (11/19-11/23). Of course, even with favorable teleconnections, there’s no guarantee that will produce a storm. At the moment.. I’ve included both the 12z EPS and GEFS. At this range, watching the ensembles is the best bet. The ensembles.. in particular the 500 MB height anomalies.. tell us that unsettled weather is currently likely in the Eastern U.S. between 11/20 and 11/24. That’s really the extent of what we know.. all else is just speculation! With that being said.. I’m not opposed to some digital eye candy early in the season, so bring it on! lol 😂 One last thing.. It’s been a pleasure being a part of this forum and weather community the last several years. It’s nice to know there are weather nerds like me out there! I genuinely do not know what I would do without everyone’s company throughout the winter months. I much look forward to the roller coaster ride that awaits, (let’s hope those long range climate forecasts are wrong!).. and sharing it with all of you! So, with that, grab some Tito’s 🥃 and let’s get this party started! Happy Tracking! 🤓 Ensemble Forecasts | 500 MB Height Anomaly (Hours 204-300) 12z EPS 12z GEFS Spoiler Operational Model Forecasts | Surface & 500 MB Vorticity (Hour 240) 12z ECMWF 12z GFS 12z GFS | Sunday, November 10th (Eye Candy Run 👀) Ensemble Forecasts | Members (Hour 240) 12z EPS 12 GEFS Teleconnections MJO Forecast AO Forecast NAO Forecast PNA Forecast North Pacific | Bering Sea Rule (BSR) Historical Context CPC 8-14 Analog Surface Map | November 7th, 1953 Edited November 20 by Penn State 6 2 2 2
Admin MaineJay Posted November 12 Admin Posted November 12 Both the ECMWF AI and GFS have potential Sara getting wrapped up into this. Specifically last winter, we've seen storms with a significant strong SE component to the winds up here. These were very damaging to many areas with large, mature pine trees, as well as some unfortunate houses and camps. The Oct 2017, storm was very damaging, and took a relatively small, and weak tropical entity, Philippe I believe, and slung it into the coast of Maine with some destructive winds. So not hoping for a repeat like that.
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 12 Author Social Media Crew Posted November 12 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: Both the ECMWF AI and GFS have potential Sara getting wrapped up into this. Specifically last winter, we've seen storms with a significant strong SE component to the winds up here. These were very damaging to many areas with large, mature pine trees, as well as some unfortunate houses and camps. The Oct 2017, storm was very damaging, and took a relatively small, and weak tropical entity, Philippe I believe, and slung it into the coast of Maine with some destructive winds. So not hoping for a repeat like that. That definitely seems to be the theme with any of the tropical enhancement.. and I hope it doesn't turn out that way for folks in New England. The storm that I referenced in 1953 had that component too. Another analog over the past couple days was 1994, which had notable tropical disturbances. Thus far though.. the modeling has not been overly impressive outside of a few runs. I know that I've always wanted to see a hurricane and snowstorm combination.. but there are consequences to life and property that you don't want to see of course. I don't think we've had a blizzard warning in my part of PA in like 20 years or more. I'm also hoping this is more than a FROPA at the end of the day.. so disappointing when that happens lol
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 12 Author Social Media Crew Posted November 12 So.. The Euro was a bit more interesting. It looks like the lead wave across the Midwest is both weaker and exits more quickly. The trough moves to the east.. but it doesn't really want to play with the tropical disturbance early enough. An improvement? Maybe. Obviously, would love for those guys to interact, phase, and move up the coast. Also looks a bit speedy overall. Does the trough need to be sharper? 12z ECMWF | Surface Map (Hour 204) 12z ECMWF | 500 MB Vorticity (Hour 204)
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 12 Author Social Media Crew Posted November 12 One reason the Euro may have been better at 12z was the trough orientation. Thus far, it's been positive by 00z on 11/22 on the EPS. This time it's neutral. The GEFS still has a positive orientation. 12z GEFS (Positive) 12z EPS (Neutral)
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 12 Author Social Media Crew Posted November 12 A little round-up of some social media posts this afternoon.. 1
PA road DAWG Posted November 12 Posted November 12 42 minutes ago, Penn State said: A little round-up of some social media posts this afternoon.. Well hello there folks 5
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 12 Author Social Media Crew Posted November 12 5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Well hello there folks Gotta love it when the band starts to get back together! 2 1
StLweatherjunkie Posted November 12 Posted November 12 Ensemble low tracks strongly suggest a great lakes cutter storm track with a surface low somewhere in the vicinity of the Quad Cities, Iowa on Nov 20/21. Maybe as the tropical system gets entrained a few days later there could be another spin up farther east, but it would be a secondary system and this kind of cut off/closed low probably won't be able to maintain a fresh tap of cold air implying you'd have to be inland at elevation to cash in. I'd rather be in the northern Midwest for this one. 1
PA road DAWG Posted November 12 Posted November 12 13 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Ensemble low tracks strongly suggest a great lakes cutter storm track with a surface low somewhere in the vicinity of the Quad Cities, Iowa on Nov 20/21. Maybe as the tropical system gets entrained a few days later there could be another spin up farther east, but it would be a secondary system and this kind of cut off/closed low probably won't be able to maintain a fresh tap of cold air implying you'd have to be inland at elevation to cash in. I'd rather be in the northern Midwest for this one. yea..def seems the likely scenario given the neutral to somewhat east based -nao.
PA road DAWG Posted November 12 Posted November 12 14 minutes ago, Penn State said: Gotta love it when the band starts to get back together! Yessir!
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 12 Author Social Media Crew Posted November 12 1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Ensemble low tracks strongly suggest a great lakes cutter storm track with a surface low somewhere in the vicinity of the Quad Cities, Iowa on Nov 20/21. Maybe as the tropical system gets entrained a few days later there could be another spin up farther east, but it would be a secondary system and this kind of cut off/closed low probably won't be able to maintain a fresh tap of cold air implying you'd have to be inland at elevation to cash in. I'd rather be in the northern Midwest for this one. Definitely. I did notice on the CMCE that the Great Lakes portion of the low was less pronounced run over run. I don’t know if that observation will continue or expand to the other models. I’m curious what the tropical disturbance does.. If that can become the main player, might be able to make things interesting.
ionizer Posted November 12 Posted November 12 *YAWN* We've all awoken from the summer slumber Are we starting off this year with a bang? Need to makeup for last year for sure 1
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 12 Author Social Media Crew Posted November 12 27 minutes ago, ionizer said: Closeness? I think the GFS is further off than the Euro. Now.. in terms of accuracy, that’s a toss up. The incoming trough would have to capture.. I think its name will be Sarah.. and that’s not easy. Cold air would have to wrap too. It’s possible, but I don’t think anywhere close to probable right now.
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted November 13 Posted November 13 This drought is ‘09-10 Polar Vortex’ ish without the cold. It is just a non- stop pattern that is a pretty bizarre setup. It is pretty much a flow out of the NE that is just killing the few chances we have. The moisture just gets raped and pillaged as it hits PA. And the overall warm flow is preventing any warm/ cold clashes, change of season stuff. And, the Gulf moisture has just been completely bageled. Almost impossible to have a pattern like this for almost 5 months. And the last, worst part of the Bible stuff is the skunks are having grub roasts in all our lawns. Destroyed. They have gotten so big from pigging out on the grubs that they ain’t even scared anymore. They are giving me a “ what the fack are you looking at” look. Skunk poop all over the property. They set up a gym in the front yard at night. We better get rain soon, before the bring the heavy equipment in and just excavate the whole freakin property. 1 3 1
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted November 13 Posted November 13 2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: This drought is ‘09-10 Polar Vortex’ ish without the cold. It is just a non- stop pattern that is a pretty bizarre setup. It is pretty much a flow out of the NE that is just killing the few chances we have. The moisture just gets raped and pillaged as it hits PA. And the overall warm flow is preventing any warm/ cold clashes, change of season stuff. And, the Gulf moisture has just been completely bageled. Almost impossible to have a pattern like this for almost 5 months. And the last, worst part of the Bible stuff is the skunks are having grub roasts in all our lawns. Destroyed. They have gotten so big from pigging out on the grubs that they ain’t even scared anymore. They are giving me a “ what the fack are you looking at” look. Skunk poop all over the property. They set up a gym in the front yard at night. We better get rain soon, before the bring the heavy equipment in and just excavate the whole freakin property. And once again i post in the wrong thread. I suck in pre season. Sorry gang!
SnowloverSid Posted November 13 Posted November 13 7 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Ensemble low tracks strongly suggest a great lakes cutter storm track with a surface low somewhere in the vicinity of the Quad Cities, Iowa on Nov 20/21. Maybe as the tropical system gets entrained a few days later there could be another spin up farther east, but it would be a secondary system and this kind of cut off/closed low probably won't be able to maintain a fresh tap of cold air implying you'd have to be inland at elevation to cash in. I'd rather be in the northern Midwest for this one. Once it trends toward a Great Lakes Cutter, it usually stays that way.
SnowloverSid Posted November 13 Posted November 13 4 hours ago, Penn State said: I think the GFS is further off than the Euro. Now.. in terms of accuracy, that’s a toss up. The incoming trough would have to capture.. I think its name will be Sarah.. and that’s not easy. Cold air would have to wrap too. It’s possible, but I don’t think anywhere close to probable right now. I had a crush on a woman named Sarah in 2022-23, so I am rooting for a named storm. It would be our last chance at a tropical system named Sarah this decade. 1 1
1816 Posted November 13 Posted November 13 3 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: This drought is ‘09-10 Polar Vortex’ ish without the cold. It is just a non- stop pattern that is a pretty bizarre setup. It is pretty much a flow out of the NE that is just killing the few chances we have. The moisture just gets raped and pillaged as it hits PA. And the overall warm flow is preventing any warm/ cold clashes, change of season stuff. And, the Gulf moisture has just been completely bageled. Almost impossible to have a pattern like this for almost 5 months. And the last, worst part of the Bible stuff is the skunks are having grub roasts in all our lawns. Destroyed. They have gotten so big from pigging out on the grubs that they ain’t even scared anymore. They are giving me a “ what the fack are you looking at” look. Skunk poop all over the property. They set up a gym in the front yard at night. We better get rain soon, before the bring the heavy equipment in and just excavate the whole freakin property. 1
Admin MaineJay Posted November 13 Admin Posted November 13 Ejecting SW Los generally bring a lot of warmth out in front, especially in November. Perhaps it's the system sliding SE through New England were stronger and slower, it might pin a little cold, but that's very unlikely I'd say. Mood flakes with the ULL passage might be the most "wintry" to all this. I want nothing to do with a tropical system getting wrapped into this. There's lots of hazard trees along the lakes and ponds that are lingering from last winter...
Wtkidz Posted November 13 Posted November 13 As much as I want rain for my well I agree we don’t need it all at once. A few good rains would be nice. We finally got our first measured rain over the weekend . 38 days no rain a new record. As for this storm who knows, at this point I will wait and see…
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 13 Author Social Media Crew Posted November 13 Just for kicks.. 😂👀
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