Major Hurricane Rafael | Peak 120mph 956 mb |gone

[StretchCT]

Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forming in the W Caribbean

7:00 PM EST Sun Nov 3
Location: 13.0°N 76.9°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

It's not quite developed enough to be a Depression or TS, but all indications are it will become one very soon. This one looks problematic for Jamaica, the Caymans  and Cuba and could reach Hurricane strength by the time it gets to Cuba.  After that there is some dry air and shear to contend with.  Disco in spoiler. 

Spoiler

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the 
disturbance over the south-central Caribbean Sea and their data 
indicates that the system has developed a closed center. However, 
deep convection is not quite organized enough to designate the 
system a tropical depression at this time. Given the potential for 
development and impacts to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the 
next day or two, advisories are being issued on Potential Tropical 
Cyclone Eighteen.

The initial motion is northeastward at 6 kt, but this is uncertain 
given that the system has only recently closed off. A turn to the 
north and then northwest is expected over the next couple of days as 
a mid-level ridge builds across the southwestern Atlantic and the 
eastern Caribbean. This motion should take the disturbance near 
Jamaica by late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands and Cuba 
on Tuesday and Wednesday. The models are in relatively good 
agreement during that time period, and the official track forecast 
lies near the various consensus models. Once the system reaches the 
Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week, the model solutions 
diverge due to differences in the predicted steering patterns and 
vertical depth of the system by that time. Therefore, the NHC track 
forecast during that time period is of notably lower confidence.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening 
during the next few days, and it seems likely that the system will 
become a tropical storm before it reaches Jamaica and a hurricane 
before it reaches Cuba. However, later in the week, southwesterly 
vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should end the 
strengthening process and likely induce some weakening once the 
system reaches the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane regional models are 
very aggressive, however, their intensity predictions appear 
overdone, at least in the short term. The NHC intensity forecast is 
closer to the statistical-dynamical models DSHP and LGEM and near 
the IVCN consensus aid.  


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and 
pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm 
Warning is now in effect. The system is forecast to become a 
hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts 
from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and 
portions of Cuba. 

2. Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system 
as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of the 
Florida Keys tonight or early Monday.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a 
tropical storm later this week, but given uncertainties in the 
long-range forecast, it is too soon to determine what, if any, 
impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly 
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the 
western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western 
portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over 
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy 
rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent 
areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late 
portions of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 13.0N  77.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/0600Z 14.3N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  04/1800Z 16.0N  77.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 17.7N  78.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 19.6N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 21.5N  82.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 23.3N  84.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 25.4N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 26.9N  88.6W   50 

Wide window for intensity

Edited November 11 by StretchCT

[Burr]

239 
WTNT63 KNHC 041204
TCUAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
705 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning 
for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF 705 AM EST...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[Burr]

[StretchCT]

Not enough wind or circulation yet, no convective bands either per discussion. Recon going in later.  Significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast and depends on how well defined and vertically aligned the center is, and where that develops.  

Spoiler

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

The system's deep convection is gradually becoming better organized 
with a little more concentration of the shower and thunderstorm 
activity.  However, convective banding features are not yet well 
defined, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane aircraft did 
not show a distinct circulation center.  Surface observations and 
scatterometer data indicate very light winds over the western 
portion of the disturbance.  Since the circulation has yet to 
become well defined, the system is still being designated as a 
potential tropical cyclone at this time.  The current intensity 
estimate remains at 30 kt based on the scatterometer winds and the 
aircraft observations.  Another Air Force plane is scheduled to 
investigate the system later this morning.

Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is 
rather uncertain.  My best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/6 
kt.  Over the next few days, the system should move generally 
northwestward on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high 
pressure system near and east of the Florida peninsula.  Later in 
the forecast period, the track guidance diverges significantly, 
with the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met office model predictions well to 
the southwest of most of the other guidance tracks.  The motion 
during the latter part of the period is partially dependent on how 
much the mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast is eroded by 
the upstream flow and how strong and vertically deep the tropical 
cyclone will become.  The details of this evolution are not well 
known at this time.  In any event it should be noted that, given the 
uncertainty in the center location, there is greater than usual 
uncertainty in the track forecast.

As noted earlier, there is also significant uncertainty in the 
intensity prediction.  For the next 48 hours or so, the system 
will be traversing waters of high oceanic heat content with low 
vertical wind shear.  Therefore strengthening is likely, but the 
amount of intensification is largely dependent on whether a 
well-defined inner core and vertically aligned circulation 
develops.  If this evolution occurs, which cannot be known with 
great certainty, significant intensification is likely before the 
system reaches Western Cuba.  Later, the environment over the Gulf 
of Mexico should be less conducive for strengthening with strong 
southwesterly shear and drier air.  The official intensity 
forecast lies between the more conservative statistical-dynamical 
guidance and the more aggressive regional hurricane models.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today and
pass near Jamaica on tonight and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  The system is forecast to become a hurricane
by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from
hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and
portions of western Cuba.

2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor
this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be
required for portions of these areas later today.

3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later
this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range
forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if
any, impacts could occur.  Residents in this area should regularly
monitor updates to the forecast.

4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the 
Western Caribbean, including the island of Jamaica and portions of 
Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica 
and Cuba, with mudslides possible.  Heavy rainfall would then 
spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United 
States mid to late week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 14.2N  76.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/1800Z 15.5N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  05/0600Z 17.3N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 19.1N  79.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 20.8N  81.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 22.7N  83.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 72H  07/0600Z 24.2N  84.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  08/0600Z 26.0N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 27.5N  89.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

HWRF peak intensity in the middle of the gulf just before it gets sheared

Same with HAFSA but...

[StretchCT]

Recon found a well defined center with deep organized convection so this meets the def of tropical depression. Should track near Jamaica tonight, Caymans on Tuesday, Cuba on Wednesday.  Low shear, warm waters and moist environment supports intensification. Although they are only maxing this out at 80mph for the current forecast. 

Spoiler

1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images, and
surface observations indicate that the low pressure system over the
south-central Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center and
is producing organized deep convection. Therefore, the system now
meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The maximum
flight-level winds from the aircraft support holding the initial
wind speed steady at 30 kt. Deep convection is gradually organizing
near the center and in bands around it, especially on the south and
east sides of the circulation.

The depression has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track,
and the initial motion estimate is now 010/8 kt. A turn to the
northwest is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to
continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should
take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the
Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on
Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to
differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the
storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and remains close to the various consensus models.  However, it
should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is
of low confidence.

The environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm
SSTs support intensification, and since the system now has a well
organized circulation, there is increasing confidence of steady
strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf,
a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air,
and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope, fairly close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus
aids.

toeing the line of TS (35kts)

Edited November 4 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

[Burr]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
100 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA 
LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 76.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[TLChip]

Snagged this from a recent accuweather post. Only 3 November hurricanes to make US landfall. 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/infamous-november-hurricanes-that-ended-seasons-with-a-bang/1707040/amp

 

[StretchCT]

4:00 PM EST Mon Nov 4
Location: 15.5°N 76.7°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
 

Disco notes:  40-45kt flight level winds, eyewall is developing, higher sfmr values found. Models diverge on path after it crosses Cuba. Rapid Intensification is possible, even likely. Forecast bumped to 100mph now. 

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Deep convection continues to burst near the center of the system, 
with improving overall structure and curved banding depicted in 
recent satellite images. Recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter data has 
found flight level winds around 40-45 kt with higher SFMR values. 
The Hurricane Hunters also indicated that an eyewall appears to be 
developing. Based on the aircraft data, the intensity is being 
increased to 40 kt. The system is now designated as Tropical Storm 
Rafael, and is the seventeenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane 
season.

The storm has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track,
and the initial motion is estimated 010/8 kt. A turn to the
northwest is expected later tonight, and that motion is forecast to
continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should
take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the
Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on
Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to
differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the
storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and remains close to the various consensus models.  However, it
should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is
of lower confidence.

Given the improving overall structure with an inner core developing, 
combined with favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, 
high moisture, and warm SSTs all support intensification. Models all 
support steady to rapid intensification, and SHIPS RI probabilities 
indicate a near 40 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in the next 24 
hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours. 
Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast and peak intensity has been 
increased and lies near the higher end of the guidance envelope 
through the middle part of the forecast period. Based on the 
SHIPS RI guidance, future upward intensity adjustments during the 
first 48 h may be necessary in subsequent forecast cycles. In a 
few days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase 
in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler 
waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening, and 
the NHC intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies 
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids through the end of the 
forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 15.5N  76.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 16.8N  77.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 18.5N  79.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 20.2N  80.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 22.1N  82.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 23.6N  83.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 24.7N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 26.0N  87.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 27.4N  89.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 

 

Vortex message mentions eyewall forming and has 61mph smfr winds.

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 18:13Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Tropical Depression: Eighteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 17:41:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15.04N 76.38W
B. Center Fix Location: 208 statute miles (335 km) to the S (172°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 679m (2,228ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WSW/W (259°) of center fix at 17:36:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 354° at 20kts (From the N at 23.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the W (265°) of center fix at 17:40:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 53kts (61.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 17:51:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 210° at 38kts (From the SSW at 43.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 2 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) of center fix at 17:42:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph) which was observed 2 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) from the flight level center at 17:42:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

 

 

EYEWALL DEVELOPING NEAR CENTER

[Burr]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...RECON FINDS RAFAEL STEADY STATE AS IT NEARS JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND ISLE OF YOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 77.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

[Burr]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
700 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL PASSING SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 78.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

[StretchCT]

AIRI backed off a bit from yesterday. 4am discussion still mentions the possibility of RI in the short term 

[Burr]

The NHC path has edged slightly east over the past few days, and to my eyes also slowed down.

Edited November 5 by Burr

[StretchCT]

4pm disco highlight

Now that Rafael has developed an inner wind core, conditions are 
favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24 h or 
so.  The system is expected to reach hurricane strength during 
the next several hours as it passes through the Cayman Islands with 
additional strengthening before it reaches Cuba.  While the peak 
intensity forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance, 
there is a chance that Rafael could get stronger than currently 
forecast.

INIT  05/2100Z 19.1N  79.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 20.5N  80.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 22.5N  82.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 24.1N  83.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 25.0N  85.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 25.4N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 25.8N  87.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 27.1N  90.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 28.8N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

[StretchCT]

[Burr]

I’m late, but here it is

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

 

[Burr]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
700 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 81.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH... 160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB... 28.47 INCHES

 

Edited November 6 by Burr

[Burr]

[StretchCT]

Wind column with max 128mph winds. 

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

10:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6
Location: 21.4°N 81.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

Rafael is predicted to be a major hurricane by the time it hits Cuba

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 21.4N  81.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 22.8N  83.2W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/1200Z 23.9N  84.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 24.3N  86.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 24.4N  88.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 24.6N  89.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 24.8N  90.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 25.7N  92.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 25.7N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

[StretchCT]

View from Cayman radar. 10am discussion  mentioned double eyewall. Recon #14 is heading in 

[StretchCT]

Seems like quite a shift in the hurricane models.

 

[StretchCT]

100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE 
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN 
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
200 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...EYE OF RAFAEL NEARING WESTERN CUBA...
...2 PM EST POSITION UPDATE...

Rafael is nearing western Cuba and is expected to make landfall 
within the next few hours. 

Another position update will be provided by 3 PM EST (2000 UTC)

 

Edited November 6 by StretchCT