TS Lane | 45mph

[StretchCT]

Tropical Storm Lane has formed in the Pacific. Not much to see here. Not expected to rapidly intensify as Kristy did.

200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 129.5W
ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[StretchCT]

800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
...LANE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 130.1W
ABOUT 1550 MI...2500 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

 

Per disco it's going to strengthen over warm water/low shear today but then get hit by shear tomorrow and degenerate to a low on Monday. 

Spoiler

800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
Lane has continued to produce deep convection this morning over the
low-level center, with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased and range
from 35 to 45 kt. Given the continued deep convection and using a
blend of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is set to
40 kt for this advisory.
 
Lane continues to move westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion 
should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered by a 
a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC forecast is very 
similar to the previous one, and remains near the latest consensus 
aids.
 
Warm sea-surface temperatures and a relative low wind shear 
environment could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today. 
Environmental conditions become less favorable on Sunday as 
southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over the system, and the 
storm is forecast to move into a drier airmass early next week, 
which should cause Lane to weaken. Lane is forecast to degenerate to 
a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 h, although given the small 
size of the system it could dissipate even sooner than forecast as 
is depicted by some model fields, including the GFS.

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 11.3N 130.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 11.3N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 11.3N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 11.4N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 11.4N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0000Z 11.5N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 11.5N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

[StretchCT]

Spoiler

Spoiler

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
200 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Satellite imagery depicts that Lane has been struggling the last 
several hours, and appears more disorganized. The overall convective 
canopy has deteriorated with warming cloud tops. Southwesterly shear 
is starting to increase based on the latest visible images, and the 
low-level center is located on the southwest edge of the convection. 
Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have remained 
steady throughout the day around 35 to 45 kt. Given the current 
satellite presentation and using a blend of these satellite 
estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Lane continues to move generally westward at 270/6 kt, and this 
general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm 
is steered by a a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC 
forecast is very similar to the previous one, with a slight nudge to 
the left.

Some intensity fluctuations are possible through today, though 
southwesterly shear is starting to increase over the system. This 
shear combined with a drier airmass along the forecast track will 
lead to a steady weakening trend beginning on Sunday. Lane is 
forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in about 36 h, 
although given the small size of the system it could dissipate even 
sooner than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 11.3N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 11.3N 131.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 11.2N 132.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 11.3N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 11.4N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

 

[StretchCT]

Lane is done