Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Moderators Share Posted October 5 (edited) NHC skipped the PTC and went for the depression. Discussion highlights: System expected to drift northeast next day or so, and is moving at 3kts now. By Tuesday it will accelerate towards the Florida coast. There is good track consensus this far out, but there differences in timing. Low shear, warm ssts should result in strengthening or rapid intensification. The forecast is for a near major storm, but that forecast may be nudged up to account for the regional hurricane models. Spoiler ropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass is expected over the system later this morning. The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and this track will bring the system across the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150 miles. The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH Edited October 11 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 Hurricane models mostly have it as a major at one point. These are peak images. They also have it weakening as it approaches FL. It's a bit scary how much agreement there is except for B which strengthens it to 100mph just before landfall. Tracks are still evolving. The hurricane models are in the Tampa area, or just north. The deterministic models are south. Ensembles put the whole peninsula in play - Euro and GFS Recon planning to head in tomorrow. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0530 PM EDT FRI 04 OCTOBER 2024 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z OCTOBER 2024 TCPOD NUMBER.....24-126 CORRECTION I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO).....ADDED FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 A. 06/1200Z B. NOAA3 01HHA TDR C. 06/0800Z D. 22.0N 94.0W E. 06/1000Z TO 06/1400Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR H. WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22.5N 92.5W FOR 06/1800Z. (NO CHANGES) B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/0000Z AND 07/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 06/2000Z AND 07/0800Z, RESPECTIVELY. (CHANGED) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 12z runs coming in hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 (edited) I am really concerned for western coast of Florida, especially coming on the heels of Helene. A lot of damage even toward Tampa that has not been cleaned up yet. This is looking like big trouble. Edited October 5 by Hoosier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 (edited) Just started a separate thread because I didn’t see this one. TS Milton is now official. “This forecast is near the intensity consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.” Full discussion in Spoiler: Spoiler Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass is expected over the system later this morning. The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and this track will bring the system across the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150 miles. The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH Edited October 5 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 Look, a hurricane in the Big Bend area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Didn’t we just do this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 Good thing there are no mountains in FL. Still not sure where 24" of rain goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Good thing there are no mountains in FL. Still not sure where 24" of rain goes. The thing is with the geography of Florida, if one tries to move laterally (inland) to evacuate, yes it's better than being at the coast but it could still be a problem. Like when people evacuated to the Orlando area for Charley and still got slammed pretty good there. System looks to move relatively quickly across Florida which means that interior Florida and even the eastern coast will have notable impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 (edited) GFS shows Milton crossing the Florida peninsula and then lingering a moment off Georgia / South Carolina before continuing on a bit of a hitch-and-post route into the Atlantic. Edited October 5 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Man what a stupid name. Milton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The thing is with the geography of Florida, if one tries to move laterally (inland) to evacuate, yes it's better than being at the coast but it could still be a problem. Like when people evacuated to the Orlando area for Charley and still got slammed pretty good there. System looks to move relatively quickly across Florida which means that interior Florida and even the eastern coast will have notable impacts. If this doesn't change I wouldn't want to be in st Augustin or Jacksonville or Daytona frankly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 minute ago, 1816 said: Man what a stupid name. Milton. Agree... reminds me of an old man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 56 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Look, a hurricane in the Big Bend area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1816 said: If this doesn't change I wouldn't want to be in st Augustin or Jacksonville or Daytona frankly. It's over 20" in St Augustine on that map Edited October 5 by StretchCT 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 (edited) 18z GFS for hour 84, prior to the storms arrival. Predecessor rains. Edited October 5 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Landfall north of Tampa will put some nice surge into the same areas just hit… (captain obvious voice?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GRR Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 There is no such thing as a "nice surge" if you live there!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 5 Admin Share Posted October 5 Areas just hit need to closely watch this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now