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Major Kirk| 145 mph 934 mb peak | declassified


StretchCT

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Tropical Storm Kirk Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
935 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM 
KIRK...

Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical 
Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum 
sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery 
also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier 
estimated position. This information with an updated track and 
intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at 
11am AST.
 
SUMMARY OF 935 AM AST...1335 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.4W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane really fast though not a threat to land. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 13.5N  34.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 13.6N  36.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 14.0N  38.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 14.7N  40.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 15.8N  41.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 17.1N  43.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 18.4N  44.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 20.7N  46.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 23.5N  48.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

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Gotta nice little pocket of light shear.  By the time it reaches the end of that, the map will have shifted and it woudl be a 

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Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to TS Kirk| 50mph 1001 mb | Growing growing growing
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Hurricane models so far in agreement. 943-946mb, winds 96-108kts and all around 25N with 48-50W.  

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GFS similar, though I'd argue that a 952/83kt on GFS is at least 10mb lower and 10kts faster.

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Euro is a little faster, further west. But in same ballpark

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Edited by StretchCT
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Kirk hasn't developed as much as anticipated. Originally progged to be at 80mph  it's only at 60. Not even bothering updating the title until later. 

5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 1
Location: 14.9°N 38.0°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

Still expected to ramp up though

INIT  01/0900Z 14.9N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 15.5N  39.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 16.5N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 17.6N  43.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 18.7N  44.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 19.9N  45.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 21.1N  47.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 24.2N  49.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 29.0N  49.7W  100 KT 115 MPH

No real change in track as this remains a threat to ocean vessels only for the next 5 days. Later in the forecast it may remain a very very strong extratropical storm and smack Irelands south coast or head up the St Georges Channel

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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Kirk hasn't developed as much as anticipated. Originally progged to be at 80mph  it's only at 60. Not even bothering updating the title until later. 

 

Providing for Care : What the Starship Enterprise teaches us | by amelia  abreu | Medium

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  • The title was changed to TS Kirk| 70mph 988 mb | Growing growing growing
  • The title was changed to Hurricane Kirk| 75mph 986 mb | Growing growing growing
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image.thumb.png.17f7f384966b5878e830f7793f60e0db.png 

Decent chance at rapid intensification over the next 24 hrs too. 

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Forecast is for it to increase 25mph in 24 hrs. Similar to what DTOPS and AI-RI are showing.  Ships is showing a shot either further intensification or a lull then another hit so that it goes up 45kts in 36 hrs. 

INIT  01/2100Z 16.2N  40.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 17.1N  41.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 18.3N  43.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 19.4N  44.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.4N  46.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 21.5N  47.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.9N  49.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 27.0N  51.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 33.0N  49.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 

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Posted (edited)

5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2
Location: 17.5°N 42.1°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
 

INIT  02/0900Z 17.5N  42.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 18.4N  43.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 19.5N  44.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 20.7N  46.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 21.9N  47.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 23.4N  49.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 25.3N  50.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 30.8N  50.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 37.4N  44.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

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Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to Hurricane Kirk| 90mph 975 mb |"Large and formidable" expectations
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Posted (edited)

Kirk is ready for liftoff... microwave showed a "notable cyan ring' which is a harbinger of more substantial intensification.

Spoiler
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

This afternoon, Kirk has the appearance of an intensifying 
hurricane. While the eye still remains obscured on visible satellite 
imagery, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 1604 UTC showed the 
inner-core continues to improve, with a notable cyan ring on the 37 
GHz channel. This signal is often a harbinger of more substantial 
intensification. While the subjective Dvorak estimates remain 
unchanged from this morning, the improvement of the storm structure 
on microwave imagery suggests intensification has continued, and the 
initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. 

The hurricane has maintained its motion throughout the day, still 
northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is not a lot of new information to 
report about the track philosophy, with Kirk expected to round the 
western edge of the subtropical ridge that has been its primary 
steering mechanism over the last few days. This ridge is forecast to 
become eroded by a deep-layer trough approaching from the west, and 
Kirk will ultimately track in between these two features, beginning 
to accelerate as the tropical cyclone recurves into the higher 
latitudes. The track guidance remains in good agreement with 
lower-than-average spread on the forecast track, and the NHC track 
is very similar to the prior advisory and is quite close to both the 
ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aid track solutions. 

All systems appear go for Kirk to intensify significantly over the 
next couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the 
hurricane intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 h, in good 
agreement with the hurricane-regional model guidance. Thereafter, 
inner-core fluctuations plus increasing southwesterly shear from the 
upper-level trough to its west is expected to cause gradual 
weakening, as  shown in the NHC forecast after that time. Kirk is 
also expected to continue growing in size through the forecast 
period. By the end of the forecast, Kirk should begin extratropical 
transition in the high-latitudes, likely to be completed just 
beyond day 5. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.9N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.9N  45.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 21.1N  46.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 22.4N  48.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 23.8N  49.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 28.5N  50.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 35.1N  47.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 42.5N  38.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.9N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.9N  45.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 21.1N  46.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 22.4N  48.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 23.8N  49.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 28.5N  50.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 35.1N  47.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 42.5N  38.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to Hurricane Kirk| 90mph 975 mb | All systems go for intensification
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Kirk went from 90 to 125 in the last 12 hours. From 975 to 952mb 
11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2
Location: 19.5°N 44.5°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

now forecast to hit 150 mph making it possible to reach Cat 5 

INIT  03/0300Z 19.5N  44.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 20.4N  45.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.7N  47.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 23.1N  48.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 24.8N  49.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 27.0N  50.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 30.0N  50.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 36.8N  45.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 43.9N  35.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 

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  • The title was changed to Major Kirk| 125 mph 952 mb | All systems go for intensification
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Posted (edited)

Winds down pressure down.  Dry air intrusion per 5am discussion. Will leave title as is as it's forecast to strengthen still.  150mph is no longer forecast. 

5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3
Location: 20.0°N 45.0°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
 

INIT  03/0900Z 20.0N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 20.8N  46.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 22.1N  47.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 23.5N  49.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 25.4N  50.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 28.0N  50.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 31.3N  49.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 38.5N  42.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 44.7N  30.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

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Edited by StretchCT
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11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3
Location: 20.4°N 45.9°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

Disco sets the wind at 110kts, citing the ADT figures, which have gone higher.  Disco also mentions dry air intrusion has resolved and the only thing that will limit Kirk is ERCs. Later in the period wind shear will pick up, but baroclinic processes will keep it a potent storm.

Spoiler
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Kirk's satellite depiction has improved this morning after some dry 
air entrainment occurred overnight. The inner core has become 
re-established with cold cloud tops wrapping around the center. 
The eye has become more pronounced and rounded on infrared and 
visible imagery. Subjective data-T numbers have increased from the 
previous advisory to T5.5, from both TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS 
objective intensity estimates have increased as well and range from 
100-117 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the improving 
satellite trends the initial intensity is set at 110 kt.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 310/9 kt.  This motion 
should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the 
edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. An 
approaching trough moving into the central Atlantic this weekend, 
will then cause Kirk to curve and turn northeastward between the 
aforementioned ridge and the trough to the west. Models are tightly 
clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous 
and lies near the consensus aids.

The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical 
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional 
strengthening is forecast, with only internal organizational eyewall 
replacement cycles or dry air intrusion limiting further 
strengthening over the next day or so. By late weekend, wind shear 
is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is 
likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to 
allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing 
tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast 
period. Latest global guidance has Kirk becoming extra-tropical by 
Day 5, which is depicted in the NHC forecast. The NHC intensity 
forecast is near the previous and lies near the HFIP 
corrected-consensus aid.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic.  These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 20.4N  45.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 21.4N  47.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 22.8N  48.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 24.6N  49.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 26.8N  50.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 29.7N  49.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 33.0N  48.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 40.3N  40.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 45.4N  27.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

The smoothing out of the eye is interesting and suggests to me that it's strengthening.  You can see the cold cloud tops surrounding the eye as mentioned in the discussion. 

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  • The title was changed to Major Kirk| 125 mph 948 mb | All systems go for intensification
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Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.d6768654de7cc83a91343eca27c43b42.png

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 21.1N  46.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 22.1N  47.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 23.7N  49.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 28.4N  50.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 31.7N  49.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 35.2N  46.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 42.1N  36.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 46.4N  23.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

Kirk10-3.thumb.gif.1ff36b716d8966443e1a6b1cdd98d7a5.gif

Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to Major Kirk| 130 mph 945 mb | Cat 4
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Kirk may be peaking, or plateauing (?)

5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4
Location: 22.3°N 48.1°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph
 

INIT  04/0900Z 22.3N  48.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 23.6N  49.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 28.7N  50.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 32.3N  49.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 35.8N  46.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 39.8N  42.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 45.0N  29.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0600Z 47.0N  14.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

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  • The title was changed to Major Kirk| 145 mph 934 mb peak | 125mph current
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Kirk is slowly winding down and getting hit with shear.
500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 50.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 26.2N  50.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 28.4N  50.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 31.9N  49.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 35.7N  46.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 39.2N  42.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 42.0N  36.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 43.4N  28.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/0600Z 45.5N  10.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0600Z 52.0N   4.5E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRA

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Posted (edited)

11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 6
Location: 35.6°N 47.7°W
Moving: NE at 25 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

 

kirk 10-6.gif

goes16_truecolor_atl.thumb.gif.4166433c558208eed07505a8afa5525c.gif

 

Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to Major Kirk| 145 mph 934 mb peak | declassified

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