Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30 Moderators Share Posted September 30 (edited) Tropical Storm Kirk Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 935 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIRK... Recently received satellite wind data indicates that Tropical Depression Twelve has become Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph (70 km/h). The satellite imagery also suggests the system has reformed a bit south of the earlier estimated position. This information with an updated track and intensity forecast will be reflected in the upcoming advisory at 11am AST. SUMMARY OF 935 AM AST...1335 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 34.4W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane really fast though not a threat to land. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 13.5N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.6N 36.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.0N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 14.7N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.8N 41.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 43.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 18.4N 44.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 20.7N 46.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 23.5N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake Gotta nice little pocket of light shear. By the time it reaches the end of that, the map will have shifted and it woudl be a Edited October 7 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30 Author Moderators Share Posted September 30 Nice core so far. Unlike Helene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Nice core so far. Unlike Helene. Agree but it shows that you don't need a strong core to inflict severe damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 30 Author Moderators Share Posted September 30 (edited) Hurricane models so far in agreement. 943-946mb, winds 96-108kts and all around 25N with 48-50W. GFS similar, though I'd argue that a 952/83kt on GFS is at least 10mb lower and 10kts faster. Euro is a little faster, further west. But in same ballpark Edited September 30 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 1 Author Moderators Share Posted October 1 Kirk hasn't developed as much as anticipated. Originally progged to be at 80mph it's only at 60. Not even bothering updating the title until later. 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 1 Location: 14.9°N 38.0°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 60 mph Still expected to ramp up though INIT 01/0900Z 14.9N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.5N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 16.5N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 17.6N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.7N 44.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 19.9N 45.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 24.2N 49.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 29.0N 49.7W 100 KT 115 MPH No real change in track as this remains a threat to ocean vessels only for the next 5 days. Later in the forecast it may remain a very very strong extratropical storm and smack Irelands south coast or head up the St Georges Channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: Kirk hasn't developed as much as anticipated. Originally progged to be at 80mph it's only at 60. Not even bothering updating the title until later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 1 Author Moderators Share Posted October 1 70mph for the 11am update. It's getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 1 Author Moderators Share Posted October 1 Decent chance at rapid intensification over the next 24 hrs too. Forecast is for it to increase 25mph in 24 hrs. Similar to what DTOPS and AI-RI are showing. Ships is showing a shot either further intensification or a lull then another hit so that it goes up 45kts in 36 hrs. INIT 01/2100Z 16.2N 40.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.3N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.4N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 20.4N 46.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 21.5N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 27.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 33.0N 49.0W 95 KT 110 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 2 Author Moderators Share Posted October 2 (edited) 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 Location: 17.5°N 42.1°W Moving: NW at 14 mph Min pressure: 984 mb Max sustained: 80 mph INIT 02/0900Z 17.5N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.5N 44.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.7N 46.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 21.9N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 23.4N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 25.3N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 30.8N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 37.4N 44.8W 85 KT 100 MPH Edited October 2 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 2 Author Moderators Share Posted October 2 (edited) Kirk is ready for liftoff... microwave showed a "notable cyan ring' which is a harbinger of more substantial intensification. Spoiler Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 This afternoon, Kirk has the appearance of an intensifying hurricane. While the eye still remains obscured on visible satellite imagery, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 1604 UTC showed the inner-core continues to improve, with a notable cyan ring on the 37 GHz channel. This signal is often a harbinger of more substantial intensification. While the subjective Dvorak estimates remain unchanged from this morning, the improvement of the storm structure on microwave imagery suggests intensification has continued, and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. The hurricane has maintained its motion throughout the day, still northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is not a lot of new information to report about the track philosophy, with Kirk expected to round the western edge of the subtropical ridge that has been its primary steering mechanism over the last few days. This ridge is forecast to become eroded by a deep-layer trough approaching from the west, and Kirk will ultimately track in between these two features, beginning to accelerate as the tropical cyclone recurves into the higher latitudes. The track guidance remains in good agreement with lower-than-average spread on the forecast track, and the NHC track is very similar to the prior advisory and is quite close to both the ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aid track solutions. All systems appear go for Kirk to intensify significantly over the next couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the hurricane intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 h, in good agreement with the hurricane-regional model guidance. Thereafter, inner-core fluctuations plus increasing southwesterly shear from the upper-level trough to its west is expected to cause gradual weakening, as shown in the NHC forecast after that time. Kirk is also expected to continue growing in size through the forecast period. By the end of the forecast, Kirk should begin extratropical transition in the high-latitudes, likely to be completed just beyond day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.9N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.9N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH Edited October 2 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 2 Author Moderators Share Posted October 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 3 Author Moderators Share Posted October 3 Kirk went from 90 to 125 in the last 12 hours. From 975 to 952mb 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 Location: 19.5°N 44.5°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 952 mb Max sustained: 125 mph now forecast to hit 150 mph making it possible to reach Cat 5 INIT 03/0300Z 19.5N 44.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 45.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.7N 47.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 23.1N 48.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 30.0N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 36.8N 45.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 43.9N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 3 Author Moderators Share Posted October 3 (edited) Winds down pressure down. Dry air intrusion per 5am discussion. Will leave title as is as it's forecast to strengthen still. 150mph is no longer forecast. 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 Location: 20.0°N 45.0°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 955 mb Max sustained: 120 mph INIT 03/0900Z 20.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Edited October 3 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 3 Author Moderators Share Posted October 3 ADT has it close to 120kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 3 Author Moderators Share Posted October 3 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 Location: 20.4°N 45.9°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 948 mb Max sustained: 125 mph Disco sets the wind at 110kts, citing the ADT figures, which have gone higher. Disco also mentions dry air intrusion has resolved and the only thing that will limit Kirk is ERCs. Later in the period wind shear will pick up, but baroclinic processes will keep it a potent storm. Spoiler Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk's satellite depiction has improved this morning after some dry air entrainment occurred overnight. The inner core has become re-established with cold cloud tops wrapping around the center. The eye has become more pronounced and rounded on infrared and visible imagery. Subjective data-T numbers have increased from the previous advisory to T5.5, from both TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have increased as well and range from 100-117 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the improving satellite trends the initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 310/9 kt. This motion should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. An approaching trough moving into the central Atlantic this weekend, will then cause Kirk to curve and turn northeastward between the aforementioned ridge and the trough to the west. Models are tightly clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous and lies near the consensus aids. The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional strengthening is forecast, with only internal organizational eyewall replacement cycles or dry air intrusion limiting further strengthening over the next day or so. By late weekend, wind shear is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast period. Latest global guidance has Kirk becoming extra-tropical by Day 5, which is depicted in the NHC forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous and lies near the HFIP corrected-consensus aid. Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.4N 45.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 47.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 22.8N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 24.6N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 29.7N 49.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 33.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 40.3N 40.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 45.4N 27.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP The smoothing out of the eye is interesting and suggests to me that it's strengthening. You can see the cold cloud tops surrounding the eye as mentioned in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 3 Author Moderators Share Posted October 3 (edited) 125 kts is 143 mph AI-RI signal is off, might be peaking. The max potential is 140kts. Edited October 3 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 3 Author Moderators Share Posted October 3 (edited) FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 21.1N 46.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 23.7N 49.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 31.7N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 35.2N 46.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 42.1N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 46.4N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Edited October 3 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 4 Author Moderators Share Posted October 4 Kirk may be peaking, or plateauing (?) 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4 Location: 22.3°N 48.1°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 934 mb Max sustained: 145 mph INIT 04/0900Z 22.3N 48.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 23.6N 49.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 28.7N 50.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 35.8N 46.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 39.8N 42.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 29.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 47.0N 14.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5 Kirk is slowly winding down and getting hit with shear. 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 50.2W ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 26.2N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 31.9N 49.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 35.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 43.4N 28.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 52.0N 4.5E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 (edited) 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 6 Location: 35.6°N 47.7°W Moving: NE at 25 mph Min pressure: 960 mb Max sustained: 100 mph Edited October 6 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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