Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Moderators Share Posted September 23 (edited) TD 10 has formed in the EPAC and as I mentioned in the Atlantic thread, it seems like it will go east instead of west. Tropical Depression Ten-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 ...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 98.7W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward drift is expected to begin later tonight. The track forecast is challenging, as there is a large spread in the guidance regarding the potential path of the system. Much of the track guidance shows the system moving generally east-northeastward as it becomes captured within the broader circulation of a developing Central American Gyre. However, a couple of global models (ECMWF and UKMET) instead show a northward drift over the next couple of days. Edited September 24 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 He's probably drunk, how does he know where we're going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 John is rapidly strengthening, moreso than what was forecast in the 3am cst discussion FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.4N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Prompting an update Tropical Storm John Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Recent satellite imagery indicates that John continues to become better organized, and that it is likely to become a hurricane later today. Continued strengthening appears likely while John approaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area. This will result in changes to the initial and forecast intensity that will be reflected in the next forecast advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center at 900 AM CST (1500 UTC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 (edited) 7 hours ago, StretchCT said: John is rapidly strengthening, moreso than what was forecast in the 3am cst discussion FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.4N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Prompting an update Tropical Storm John Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Recent satellite imagery indicates that John continues to become better organized, and that it is likely to become a hurricane later today. Continued strengthening appears likely while John approaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area. This will result in changes to the initial and forecast intensity that will be reflected in the next forecast advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center at 900 AM CST (1500 UTC). 6 hours later and its a cat two. Now forecast to hit 120mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1800Z 15.1N 98.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED Edited September 23 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 24 Author Moderators Share Posted September 24 ZCZC MIATCUEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 920 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO... Satellite data indicates that Hurricane John has made landfall along the southern coast of Mexico just to the south-southwest of Marquelia, Mexico in the state of Guerrero at around 915 PM CST (0315 UTC). The maximum sustained winds at landfall are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 959 mb (28.32 inches). This makes John a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SUMMARY OF 920 PM CST...0320 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 98.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 Remnants Of John Special Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...JOHN DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 100.6W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN REFORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 101.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 101.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 This crazy zombie storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 26 Author Moderators Share Posted September 26 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 102.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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