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Cat 3 John | Landfall | 120mph 959mb


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TD 10 has formed in the EPAC and as I mentioned in the Atlantic thread, it seems like it will go east instead of west. 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
600 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024

...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 98.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward drift 
is expected to begin later tonight. The track forecast is 
challenging, as there is a large spread in the guidance regarding 
the potential path of the system. Much of the track guidance shows 
the system moving generally east-northeastward as it becomes 
captured within the broader circulation of a developing Central 
American Gyre. However, a couple of global models (ECMWF and UKMET) 
instead show a northward drift over the next couple of days. 

image.thumb.png.8f5341a099aec3900ab7546e8eb336a6.png

Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to TS John | You're going the wrong way... | 65mph 994mb
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John is rapidly strengthening, moreso than what was forecast in the 3am cst discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 14.4N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.8N  98.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 15.4N  97.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.8N  97.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.0N  97.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Prompting an update

Tropical Storm John Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Recent satellite imagery indicates that John continues to become 
better organized, and that it is likely to become a hurricane later 
today. Continued strengthening appears likely while John approaches 
the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area.  
This will result in changes to the initial and forecast intensity 
that will be reflected in the next forecast advisory issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 900 AM CST (1500 UTC).

 

image.thumb.png.d1a18930a04a45fd7ebcd9960fbcae66.png

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7 hours ago, StretchCT said:

John is rapidly strengthening, moreso than what was forecast in the 3am cst discussion

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 14.4N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.8N  98.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 15.4N  97.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.8N  97.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.0N  97.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Prompting an update

Tropical Storm John Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Recent satellite imagery indicates that John continues to become 
better organized, and that it is likely to become a hurricane later 
today. Continued strengthening appears likely while John approaches 
the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area.  
This will result in changes to the initial and forecast intensity 
that will be reflected in the next forecast advisory issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 900 AM CST (1500 UTC).

 

image.thumb.png.d1a18930a04a45fd7ebcd9960fbcae66.png

6 hours later and its a cat two.

image.thumb.png.974bc400a9b1bbf9ef1e8a6435ee87dd.pngimage.thumb.png.406c253899190ec80a2e7377ee095dea.png

Now forecast to hit 120mph

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1800Z 15.1N  98.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 15.3N  98.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 15.8N  97.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 16.1N  97.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/1200Z 16.3N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to Cat 2 John | You're going the wrong way... and very fast| 100mph 973mb
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ZCZC MIATCUEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
920 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO...

Satellite data indicates that Hurricane John has made landfall 
along the southern coast of Mexico just to the south-southwest of 
Marquelia, Mexico in the state of Guerrero at around 915 PM CST 
(0315 UTC). The maximum sustained winds at landfall are estimated 
to be 120 mph (195 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is 
estimated at 959 mb (28.32 inches). This makes John a category 3 
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. 

 
SUMMARY OF 920 PM CST...0320 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
NNNN
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  • The title was changed to Cat 3 John | Landfall | 120mph 959mb
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Remnants Of John Special Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
1200 PM CST Tue Sep 24 2024
 
...JOHN DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 100.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024
 
...JOHN REFORMS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 101.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

 

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300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 101.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
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BULLETIN
Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
600 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 102.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals
around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

goes16_truecolor_10E_202409261115.thumb.gif.4794373fd12b86903c7d91a9d0de4619.gif

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