Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15 Moderators Share Posted September 15 Hmmm. It's still tied up in a front, but its pretty gnarly. Edisto buoy with 12 foot waves 39kt gusts and 29kt sustained. Maybe multiple circulations, but I do see a N,S,E,W flow. This is at 2500 feet. GFS, UKIE and JMA all have it warm core. Some rumors circulating its PTC8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15 Author Moderators Share Posted September 15 I won't be around at 5 for the advisory. But here's the kickoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 15 Admin Share Posted September 15 Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 152058 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the non-tropical low pressure system off the South Carolina coast has a broad low-level circulation center, but could be in the process of reforming closer to the mid-level circulation currently seen on radar from Wilmington, NC. However, the system may not have yet completely shed its frontal characteristics. Since there is deep convection over and around the center, it is becoming more likely the cyclone could become either a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next day or so. Therefore the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight at this time with an initial intensity of 40 kt. There has been significant uncertainty in the center positions since last night, and the best guess at initial motion is northwestward or 320/6 kt. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance is expected to be steered by the flow on the southern or southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system over the northeastern United States. This motion should bring the center inland over the southeastern U.S. coast in 24 hours or so. The NHC forecast track is close to the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions. the system will be traversing warm waters for the next 24 hours or so and it may be situated within an area of relatively low shear near the axis of an upper-level trough. Therefore some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 32.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch 1700 ET Update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15 Author Moderators Share Posted September 15 On radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 Chances of this developing into a tropical system have decreased. No appreciable increase in organization overnight, actually probably deorganized. It will likely run out of time to be come truly tropical, but there are already winds of TS force. Spoiler Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The structure of the area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina has seemingly become less organized during the past few hours. Proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level circulation is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the center has not become well defined. The associated deep convection has a generally linear orientation and has been displaced farther to the north and east of the center due to strong upper-level winds. Lastly, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still measured a 2-3 degree Celsius temperature difference at 850 mb from north to south, indicating that the frontal boundary is diffuse but not totally gone. Therefore, the low is still not a tropical or subtropical cyclone. That said, the plane measured a peak wind of 54 kt at 6000 ft in the convection well northeast of the center, suggesting that the current intensity is about 45 kt. The low is drifting northwestward (325 degrees) at 3 kt, gradually approaching the South Carolina coast. A faster motion toward the northwest is expected to occur today as the low moves between mid-level high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and a trough over the southeastern U.S. The NHC track forecast shows the low crossing the coast later this afternoon, which is shown by most of the track models. The GFS remains the notable outlier since it initialized the low too far to the northwest and consequently has it crossing the coast around sunrise. After moving inland, the low is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward and then northward over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The new track forecast has been nudged westward from the previous forecast, although there is a modest amount of uncertainty given the ill-defined nature of the center. The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland. Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the warning areas today. Further weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 Frying pan shoals made it to TS force. Then there's the wind shift and the barometer bottoming out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 Wrightsville Beach Offshore also over TS force. Gotta wonder how Rodanthe NC is doing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 (edited) Non tropical storm with a lot of tropical impacts. Wind gusts in the 60s and 70s and rain in the 13-15" range. And its ongoing. Rain amounts so far since midnight. Wind gusts Backing up the wunderground rainfall Edited September 16 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 (edited) I guess the circulation is onshore. Winds have eased Rainfall so far Edited September 16 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 Wrightsville beach had sustained winds of 50kts and what looks like a 3-4ft surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Scatterometer data earlier today showed a very elongated surface circulation with frontal features extending from the low, confirming the non-tropical structure of the system. In fact, current observations show a significant temperature and dewpoint gradient remains along the boundary. Based on radar data and surface observations, the poorly-defined low center is likely near the coast or just inland over northeastern South Carolina. Although it failed to develop a well-defined center and the necessary organization to become a tropical cyclone, the low has produced significant impacts today, with life-threatening flash flooding reported in portions of southeastern North Carolina and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along the coast. Another band of heavy rainfall is currently moving onshore over the Cape Fear region, with heavy rains also spreading farther inland. Recent surface observations show the sustained winds have diminished below tropical storm force, and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. The system is moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. This motion will bring the system farther inland over the Carolinas tonight and Tuesday, where it is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate. Although the wind threat has subsided, heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain a serious concern for portions of the Carolinas. For more information on this system, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. Since the system is no longer producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds, the Tropical Storm Warnings for the Carolinas have been discontinued. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 Rain since midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 This thing is crazy pumping PWAT machine The thread titles says 'quick hit' Methinks the folks in NC and VA will wish it were so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Cut off and closed off (nearly stacked at each level) - not a good combo for those affected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16 Author Moderators Share Posted September 16 (edited) https://fb.watch/uEtS-vPRoQ/ Nuts, I thought this would embed. Edited September 16 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 Wow, kind of like a mini Harvey situation down there right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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