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PTC 8 | quick hit


StretchCT

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Hmmm. It's still tied up in a front, but its pretty gnarly. 

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CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Carolinas-02-19_16Z-20240915_map_noBar-27-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.bb46d6eaf5d2436b108ddc96e6ed7f72.gif

Edisto buoy with 12 foot waves 39kt gusts and 29kt sustained. 

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Maybe multiple circulations, but I do see a N,S,E,W flow. This is at 2500 feet.  GFS, UKIE and JMA all have it warm core.  Some rumors circulating its PTC8

Screenshot2024-09-15at4_19_06PM.thumb.png.25767e4ce954a1ceb3ee95e41947cc0c.png

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Quote
000
WTNT43 KNHC 152058
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that 
the non-tropical low pressure system off the South Carolina coast 
has a broad low-level circulation center, but could be in the 
process of reforming closer to the mid-level circulation currently 
seen on radar from Wilmington, NC.  However, the system may not have 
yet completely shed its frontal characteristics. Since there is deep 
convection over and around the center, it is becoming more
likely the cyclone could become either a tropical or subtropical 
cyclone within the next day or so. Therefore the disturbance is 
being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight at this time 
with an initial intensity of 40 kt. 

There has been significant uncertainty in the center positions since 
last night, and the best guess at initial motion is northwestward or 
320/6 kt.  Over the next couple of days, the disturbance is expected 
to be steered by the flow on the southern or southwestern side of a 
mid-level high pressure system over the northeastern United States. 
This motion should bring the center inland over the southeastern 
U.S. coast in 24 hours or so.  The NHC forecast track is close to 
the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions.

the system will be traversing warm waters for the next 24 hours or 
so and it may be situated within an area of relatively low shear 
near the axis of an upper-level trough.  Therefore some 
strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast 
is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is 
expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy 
rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast 
United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next 
couple of days.  

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical 
Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 

3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban 
flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and 
northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is 
also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the 
Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 32.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  16/0600Z 32.4N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  16/1800Z 33.1N  79.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0600Z 34.1N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  17/1800Z 35.4N  80.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  18/0600Z 36.7N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  18/1800Z 37.5N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

1700 ET Update.

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Chances of this developing into a tropical system have decreased.  No appreciable increase in organization overnight, actually probably deorganized.  It will likely run out of time to be come truly tropical, but there are already winds of TS force.

Spoiler
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The structure of the area of low pressure off the coast of South
Carolina has seemingly become less organized during the past few
hours.  Proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the
low-level circulation is elongated from northeast to southwest, and
the center has not become well defined.  The associated deep
convection has a generally linear orientation and has been
displaced farther to the north and east of the center due to strong
upper-level winds.  Lastly, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft still measured a 2-3 degree Celsius temperature difference
at 850 mb from north to south, indicating that the frontal boundary
is diffuse but not totally gone.  Therefore, the low is still not a
tropical or subtropical cyclone.  That said, the plane measured a 
peak wind of 54 kt at 6000 ft in the convection well northeast of 
the center, suggesting that the current intensity is about 45 kt.

The low is drifting northwestward (325 degrees) at 3 kt, gradually
approaching the South Carolina coast.  A faster motion toward the
northwest is expected to occur today as the low moves between
mid-level high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and a trough
over the southeastern U.S.  The NHC track forecast shows the low 
crossing the coast later this afternoon, which is shown by most of 
the track models.  The GFS remains the notable outlier since it 
initialized the low too far to the northwest and consequently has 
it crossing the coast around sunrise.  After moving inland, the low 
is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward and then 
northward over the Carolinas through Wednesday.  The new track 
forecast has been nudged westward from the previous forecast, 
although there is a modest amount of uncertainty given the 
ill-defined nature of the center.

The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical
cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and
since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland.  
Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds 
should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although 
tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the 
warning areas today.  Further weakening is forecast after the 
system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas 
by late Wednesday.

 

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Non tropical storm with a lot of tropical impacts. Wind gusts in the 60s and 70s and rain in the 13-15" range. And its ongoing.

Rain amounts so far since midnight.

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Wind gusts

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Backing up the wunderground rainfall

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Edited by StretchCT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Scatterometer data earlier today showed a very elongated surface 
circulation with frontal features extending from the low, confirming 
the non-tropical structure of the system. In fact, current 
observations show a significant temperature and dewpoint gradient 
remains along the boundary. Based on radar data and surface 
observations, the poorly-defined low center is likely near the coast 
or just inland over northeastern South Carolina. Although it failed 
to develop a well-defined center and the necessary organization to 
become a tropical cyclone, the low has produced significant impacts 
today, with life-threatening flash flooding reported in portions of 
southeastern North Carolina and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along 
the coast. Another band of heavy rainfall is currently moving 
onshore over the Cape Fear region, with heavy rains also spreading 
farther inland. Recent surface observations show the sustained winds 
have diminished below tropical storm force, and the initial 
intensity is lowered to 30 kt.

The system is moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. This motion 
will bring the system farther inland over the Carolinas tonight and 
Tuesday, where it is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate. 
Although the wind threat has subsided, heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding remain a serious concern for portions of the Carolinas. For 
more information on this system, see products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office.

Since the system is no longer producing sustained
tropical-storm-force winds, the Tropical Storm Warnings for the
Carolinas have been discontinued. Therefore, this will be the final
NHC advisory on the system.
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