TS Gordon| 45mph 1004 mb peak | Fish and Ships (SAD)

[StretchCT]

200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR MANY DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 28.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 16.0N  28.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 16.6N  31.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 17.5N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 18.6N  36.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 19.3N  39.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 19.9N  41.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 20.3N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 20.6N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 21.0N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 

Luckily its out in no mans land so the spread in the intensity only matters to the fish and ships

Lots of spread in gfs ensembles for track too

Edited September 16, 2024 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Not much going on with this one.

In terms of moisture, the environment across the tropical Atlantic 
has not been kind to weather systems over the past couple of months. 
The official forecast still allows for the possibility of the 
depression becoming a tropical storm today or tonight, however an 
even drier air mass to the west is likely to cause the cyclone to 
continue struggling convectively.  In fact, all of the global models 
show the cyclone's wind field weakening over the weekend, with the 
GFS suggesting the depression could degenerate into a remnant low.  
For now, the NHC forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for 
the entire forecast period, but it does show weakening in a couple 
of days.  Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system 
reaches a slightly more moist and low-shear environment. 

[StretchCT]

A lot of uncertainty with this, except not much expected with strength. 

Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

...GORDON HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 39.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Spoiler

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

Gordon continues to produce a convective canopy of cold cloud 
tops near -75 C mainly to the east of the center, due to some 
moderate westerly wind shear. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass 
depicted some banding features forming as well. Subjective and 
objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have remained  steady 
around 35 kt. Thus, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm continues to deal with some westerly wind shear 
and has about 18 hours before encountering a drier airmass across 
the central tropical Atlantic. So the current forecast shows the 
potential for some slight strengthening before the unfavorable 
airmass. Models depict that the cyclones wind field will weaken and 
the system is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression. Simulated 
satellite depicts that the cyclone will struggle convectively 
through the middle part of the period and there is a chance that 
Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official 
forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire 
forecast period. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the 
system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear 
environment.

Gordon is moving slightly slower toward the west-northwest at 290/9 
kt. The system is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge 
which will cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more 
westward by tonight. This slow westward to west-southwestward motion 
will continue through much of the forecast period. An amplified 
trough is forecast to move to the north of Gordon towards the end of 
the period which could cause a turn toward the northwest and 
northward by the end of the period. However, there is quite a spread 
in the model guidance towards the end of the period due to the 
differences in intensity and if Gordon is able to regain strength 
toward the end of the period. The latest NHC forecast track is 
slightly to the left of the previous and near the simple consensus 
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 19.5N  39.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 19.8N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 19.7N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 19.5N  44.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 19.4N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 19.3N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 19.3N  47.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 19.9N  49.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 20.8N  49.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 

[StretchCT]

5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 14
Location: 20.1°N 40.9°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 20.1N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 20.0N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 19.9N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 19.7N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 19.5N  46.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 19.3N  48.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 19.2N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 19.5N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 21.0N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

[StretchCT]

Gordon actually looked better as the day went on, but is headed towards some very dry air. Shear isn't that bad but enough to combine with the dry air to kick Gordons butt.   Some regeneration is possible if it's still alive after it deals with the dry air, but for now it's remnant low or depression bound. I will say its weird that in the height of the season that the MDR can't sustain a storm.