Moderators StretchCT Posted September 8 Moderators Share Posted September 8 (edited) This is basically a tropical storm without enough organization yet. Should make it to the gulf coast in 3 days. Mexico has TS watches out. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northwestward motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday. Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). Currently in a gap of radar Do disco as of yet. But I think this could make it to Cat 1 or possibly 2. Hurricane models aren't impressed - most have it interacting with land too much. But the GFS takes it over water the entire time and in a rare event, forecasts this way over what the hurricane models have at a Cat 2. A lot is going to rest on where that center forms. Edited September 12 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 This one has me concerned for over performance. Sheer on the northern flank should lessen. If our system stays over water long enough to land in central Louisiana (see GFS), it will have a bit more time to collect strength. Between the very warm waters, a burgeoning storm that I don’t anticipate would have issues with its core, and just enough time, I could easily see this taking off. TS today, Hurricane by tomorrow and we just have to hope for lots of land interaction to limit the strength. sorry for the lack of charts this morning. I’m on my iPad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9 Author Moderators Share Posted September 9 (edited) Still no center of circulation. Discussion in spoiler. Progged to get to 80mph now. Spoiler Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance is producing considerable deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. However, the cloud pattern is still in the organizing stage with not much evidence of banding features at this time. Upper-level outflow is becoming established over the area. Observations from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, data buoy 42055, and a partial ASCAT overpass suggest that the system has not yet developed a well- defined center of circulation. The intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory with the assumption of some undersampling of the winds over the western part of the circulation. However, this could be generous. Since the center is still not well defined, the initial motion is a rather uncertain, but slow, 340/4 kt. During the next day or so, the system is expected to move along the western side of a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should keep the core of the system off the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas for the next 24-36 hours. Then, a shortwave trough over Texas is expected to induce a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed, which would take the center of the system near and across the northwestern or northern Gulf coast late Wednesday. The official track forecast has again been nudged eastward in the 48-72 hour period, but not quite as far east as the ECMWF and corrected consensus model predictions. It should be noted that confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal since the system lacks a well-defined center. Since the system is still not very well-organized and lacks an inner core structure, only slow strengthening is expected through this morning. However, the disturbance is expected to soon become better organized while remaining over very warm waters, with high low- to mid-tropospheric humidity, and low vertical shear for the next 48 hours. Therefore steady strengthening is likely to begin by later today. This is also shown by most of the numerical guidance. When the system nears landfall, the global models show increasing upper-level westerlies near the northwestern Gulf coast, and this could lead to stronger vertical wind shear over the cyclone. Therefore the rate of strengthening could at least level off as the center nears the coast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction, close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, and continues to show the system as a hurricane at landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm today as it moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas. 2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area later today, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico, portions of southernmost Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 22.2N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 09/1800Z 23.0N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 10/0600Z 24.1N 95.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 25.2N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 26.8N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 28.5N 93.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 30.7N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/0600Z 34.9N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/0600Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch Edited September 9 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9 Author Moderators Share Posted September 9 Can see some trends east which will keep the storm over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9 Author Moderators Share Posted September 9 Tropical Storm Francine 10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 Location: 23.0°N 94.9°W Moving: NNW at 5 mph Min pressure: 1002 mb Max sustained: 50 mph The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70 to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of 45 kt this advisory. INIT 09/1500Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST 72H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL AI RI is showing chances for rapid intensification, mostly around 24 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9 Author Moderators Share Posted September 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 It appears that strengthening is somewhat ahead of schedule. Also interesting to note that an eye feature now apparent on radar. So COC stacking is evidently occurring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9 Author Moderators Share Posted September 9 37 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Also interesting to note that an eye feature now apparent on radar. And sat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9 Author Moderators Share Posted September 9 4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 Location: 24.0°N 96.0°W Moving: NNW at 7 mph Min pressure: 996 mb Max sustained: 65 mph Disco highlights: Eyewall forming, pressure dropped significantly, mid level eye on radar. Poised to intensify in the short term with low shear, high water temps, ample moisture. Anticipated landfall as Cat 2 Spoiler Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Since the prior advisory, Francine's structure has continued to improve. Curved bands are becoming more obvious on geostationary satellite imagery, even if the coldest cloud tops have warmed from earlier today. The last Air Force reconnaissance mission into Francine on its final center fix found a formative inner-core with a partial eyewall, 850 mb flight level winds up to 58 kt, and pressure down to 996 mb, a significant drop from this morning. These data were the basis for bringing the 18 UTC intensity up to 50 kt. Since then, a mid-level eye feature on the Brownsville radar has become apparent. Assuming some additional deepening, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. With the center becoming better established, the motion is a bit easier to estimate, currently at 340/6 kt. While the system has reformed a bit west of the previous track, the overall thinking has not changed much, as Francine will be moving around the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba, and an upper-level trough propagating into Texas. This trough will ultimately shift the track of a more vertically deep Francine northeastward tomorrow with gradual acceleration until the storm makes landfall sometime between 48 to 60 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted westward, likely due to the more westward initial position, and is also a little faster. The latest NHC track forecast follows suit, showing a shift to the west and a faster motion, blending the prior forecast towards the reliable consensus aids TCVN and HCCA. With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final 12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly, which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the overall intensity guidance, but still is lower than some of the hurricane-regional model guidance (HAFS-B, HMON). Given the changes to the forecast, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for a significant portion of the Louisiana coastline. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Francine is expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday, and there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: 4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 Location: 24.0°N 96.0°W Moving: NNW at 7 mph Min pressure: 996 mb Max sustained: 65 mph Disco highlights: Eyewall forming, pressure dropped significantly, mid level eye on radar. Poised to intensify in the short term with low shear, high water temps, ample moisture. Anticipated landfall as Cat 2 Reveal hidden contents Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 Since the prior advisory, Francine's structure has continued to improve. Curved bands are becoming more obvious on geostationary satellite imagery, even if the coldest cloud tops have warmed from earlier today. The last Air Force reconnaissance mission into Francine on its final center fix found a formative inner-core with a partial eyewall, 850 mb flight level winds up to 58 kt, and pressure down to 996 mb, a significant drop from this morning. These data were the basis for bringing the 18 UTC intensity up to 50 kt. Since then, a mid-level eye feature on the Brownsville radar has become apparent. Assuming some additional deepening, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. With the center becoming better established, the motion is a bit easier to estimate, currently at 340/6 kt. While the system has reformed a bit west of the previous track, the overall thinking has not changed much, as Francine will be moving around the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba, and an upper-level trough propagating into Texas. This trough will ultimately shift the track of a more vertically deep Francine northeastward tomorrow with gradual acceleration until the storm makes landfall sometime between 48 to 60 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted westward, likely due to the more westward initial position, and is also a little faster. The latest NHC track forecast follows suit, showing a shift to the west and a faster motion, blending the prior forecast towards the reliable consensus aids TCVN and HCCA. With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final 12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly, which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the overall intensity guidance, but still is lower than some of the hurricane-regional model guidance (HAFS-B, HMON). Given the changes to the forecast, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for a significant portion of the Louisiana coastline. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Francine is expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday, and there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL Not loving the trends. This storm can go boom. I almost feel like 115 at landfall is my low estimate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 10 Admin Share Posted September 10 47 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: Not loving the trends. This storm can go boom. I almost feel like 115 at landfall is my low estimate. Yeah, this is not great. However, I wonder if the storm becomes strong enough, will it bullseye Central LA, thus sparing more populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 45 minutes ago, Sentinel said: Yeah, this is not great. However, I wonder if the storm becomes strong enough, will it bullseye Central LA, thus sparing more populated areas. My concern is that there is a potential route further east closer to New Orleans. I wouldn’t predict it at this moment, but it’s not a solution that is completely off the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10 Author Moderators Share Posted September 10 12z HMON not messing around with Cat 3. 18z backed off a little. HAFS A from 18z also getting clost to if not over a Cat 3. This one goes to the east of NOLA, per PSU's concern. HAFS B 18z also at Cat 3. Goes just to the west of NOLA. The hurricane models came to the party later than the GFS, but until that center formed, it was anyone's guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10 Author Moderators Share Posted September 10 There is some talk about dry air intrusion. And it does look that way on the mid level WV sat. That air near the center isn't super dry though. But when you compare it to the models, they don't seem to have it going into the center. A hint but not what is actually on the WV. Hafs A, B, HWRF and GFS left to right More importantly, they all even it out later on. GFS, HWRF, HafsA, B left to right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10 Author Moderators Share Posted September 10 When you're living on the LA coast and you see yourself in the bright green area, you look at the scale and see that there's only a 20-30% chance of hurricane force winds during the next 72 hrs. And its the same all the way out to 120 hrs. Do you prep for a hurricane at this point? I mean it's a 20% chance. 40-50% chance you see 50kt winds Seems like a reasonable person would probably not do much to prep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 10 Admin Share Posted September 10 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: When you're living on the LA coast and you see yourself in the bright green area, you look at the scale and see that there's only a 20-30% chance of hurricane force winds during the next 72 hrs. And its the same all the way out to 120 hrs. Do you prep for a hurricane at this point? I mean it's a 20% chance. 40-50% chance you see 50kt winds Seems like a reasonable person would probably not do much to prep. Honestly... Yes. With the Rocket Fuel in the Ocean, I would definitely have my city on alert. Could it be for nothing? Yes. Could it also protect the city? Yes. I would not call for evacuations, etc, but I would have my staff having things ready in case I need to move that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10 Author Moderators Share Posted September 10 8 minutes ago, Sentinel said: Honestly... Yes. With the Rocket Fuel in the Ocean, I would definitely have my city on alert. Could it be for nothing? Yes. Could it also protect the city? Yes. I would not call for evacuations, etc, but I would have my staff having things ready in case I need to move that way. Let me rephrase. You meaning a local person who doesn’t follow the weather much. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Dry air and sheer really did a number. High cloud tops are starting to boil around the center so this is not over, but a good sign for the moment that she is taking more time to organize . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10 Author Moderators Share Posted September 10 (edited) 4:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 Location: 24.4°N 96.2°W Moving: NNW at 5 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 65 mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 24.4N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 95.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 27.1N 94.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.0N 92.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 31.4N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1800Z 33.8N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/0600Z 35.7N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0600Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED Moving slowly. 6z HAFS A and B backing off the strength back into the Cat 2 range. They all seem to have the storm waiting until tonight to wind up. These don't update as quickly as I'd want, but still appreciate them. Edited September 10 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10 Author Moderators Share Posted September 10 Firing up some new convection around the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 11 hours ago, Sentinel said: Honestly... Yes. With the Rocket Fuel in the Ocean, I would definitely have my city on alert. Could it be for nothing? Yes. Could it also protect the city? Yes. I would not call for evacuations, etc, but I would have my staff having things ready in case I need to move that way. Exactly. You're already prepared at that point. If it doesn't pan out, let the bandwagon complain. I'd rather have them complain about being prepared than not being prepared. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 11 hours ago, StretchCT said: Let me rephrase. You meaning a local person who doesn’t follow the weather much. Wut is whethuh? 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 10 Admin Share Posted September 10 12 hours ago, StretchCT said: Let me rephrase. You meaning a local person who doesn’t follow the weather much. They are not watching the weather anyway.. so.. Of course yes! 😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Sentinel said: They are not watching the weather anyway.. so.. Of course yes! 😁 And then they'll complain and say why didn't you tell us or how were we supposed to know. Edited September 10 by clm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 What are the chances Francine could be a rebel and go up through Texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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