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Major Hurricane Gilma |Peak 130mph 949mb | dissipated


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Posted (edited)

This seemed to ramp up quickly

2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 19
Location: 15.1°N 116.9°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

image.thumb.png.a0d98f9f2df52f043de27e95ce6994a6.png

Edited by StretchCT
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Took a hit of shear but will rebound

2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 20
Location: 15.7°N 118.3°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 15.7N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 16.0N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 16.8N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 17.3N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 17.7N 125.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 18.2N 126.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 19.0N 128.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 20.0N 131.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
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200 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

...GILMA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2024 EAST PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 122.3W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
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  • The title was changed to Hurricane Gilma | 75mph 990mb
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2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 21
Location: 16.3°N 123.2°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

12 hours went up 30mph in wind and from 990 to 972 mb. 

image.thumb.png.80b9880fa89187d05864afd1cfda5757.png

 Forecast now up to 130mph. Still over 5 days from HI. Whatever is in front of it will be named shortly

INIT  21/2100Z 16.3N 123.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 16.6N 124.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 16.9N 125.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 17.1N 126.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 17.6N 129.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 17.7N 131.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 18.0N 134.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 18.5N 138.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

goes18_truecolor_07E_202408211805.thumb.gif.a49bfd9e9cfd0925580d804f8037f6ac.gif

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  • The title was changed to Major Hurricane Gilma |115mph 963mb | intensifying
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Gilma becomes a major hurricane.

2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 22
Location: 16.6°N 124.2°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
 

Predicting 125mph now.

INIT  22/0900Z 16.6N 124.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 17.2N 126.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 17.5N 127.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 17.8N 129.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 18.3N 132.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 18.6N 136.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
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  • The title was changed to Major Hurricane Gilma |125mph 955mb | intensifying
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5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 22
Location: 16.9°N 124.5°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

INIT  22/1500Z 16.9N 124.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 17.1N 125.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 17.5N 126.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 17.8N 128.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 18.1N 129.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 18.4N 133.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 18.8N 137.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 19.1N 141.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 

goes18_vis_07E_202408221535.thumb.gif.de463d3daf8d924807cd3d6466defb1b.gif

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Given how far out in the Pacific this is and not near land, do they fly into these?  I've only noticed they fly into the ones in the Atlantic that are threatening landfall.

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1 hour ago, clm said:

Given how far out in the Pacific this is and not near land, do they fly into these?  I've only noticed they fly into the ones in the Atlantic that are threatening landfall.

It's all satellite estimated.

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  • The title was changed to Major Hurricane Gilma |Peak 125mph 955mb | 90mph 977mb weakening
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...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
5:00 AM HST Sat Aug 24
Location: 17.6°N 130.0°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
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Gilma re intensified and peaked again at 130mph 

Screenshot2024-08-25at11_08_04AM.thumb.png.95ff077dcb667e107e3b2c1753eb5b9a.png

gilmasat8-25.thumb.gif.93cf747a2ca6857aaacda3440961c6b0.gif

This was yesterday mornings forecast

Screenshot2024-08-25at11_11_09AM.png.dd8e72eb623dc338e3f2cf93684f49d5.png

Last nights discussion

500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024
 
Gilma continues to defy the odds and intensify. The satellite 
depiction over the last several hours has been one of a 
well-organized strengthening hurricane. The eyewall is tightly 
wrapped producing deep convection with lightning depicted in the 
northern eyewall on GLM satellite imagery. Visible imagery shows 
that the eye has become circular, well-defined, and has been 
clearing out. Subjective Dvorak estimates have increased but were 
constrained to T6.0/115 kt from both SAB and TAFB, with both 
agencies reporting higher data-T values. Objective satellite 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 105-115 kt. Using a 
blend of these estimates the initial intensity is raised to 110 kt 
for this advisory. Therefore, Gilma's strengthening has met the 
definition of rapid intensification as the system has strengthened 
30 kt in 12 h.
INIT  25/0300Z 17.8N 131.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 17.9N 133.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 18.1N 134.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 18.3N 136.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 18.5N 138.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 18.7N 140.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 18.9N 142.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 19.6N 146.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 20.3N 150.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Overnight discussion

1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024
 
After a brief period of rapid strengthening earlier this evening, 
Gilma's intensity has leveled off.  Conventional GOES-18 satellite 
imagery shows that the deep inner core convection has eroded 
considerably in the western half of the cyclone.  The initial 
intensity is set at 115 kt and is based on a blend of the 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and various UW-CIMSS 
objective techniques.  Although the current intensity is higher 
than noted in the previous advisory, Gilma likely peaked a few 
hours ago based on earlier ADT intensity estimates of 115-119 kt 
and the 0000 UTC constrained Data-T 6.5 subjective estimates from 
both TAFB and SAB.
 
INIT  25/0900Z 18.0N 132.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.1N 133.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 18.3N 135.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 18.5N 137.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 18.7N 139.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 18.9N 141.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 19.2N 142.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 20.0N 146.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 20.6N 150.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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  • The title was changed to Major Hurricane Gilma |Peak 130mph 949mb | 100mph 977mb
  • Moderators

11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25
Location: 18.1°N 135.9°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

Should finally start to steadily weaken, though might disrupt Hawaii a little. 

INIT  26/0900Z 18.1N 135.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 18.3N 137.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 18.5N 138.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 19.4N 145.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 19.8N 147.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 20.6N 151.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  31/0600Z 21.6N 155.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Screenshot2024-08-26at8_56_14AM.thumb.png.749713b57e00244f3eb4d343bf765c42.png

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Rapidly weakening... 40kts over 15 hrs. Being sheared and the center is 60 miles from the convection.

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP072024
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

...GILMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 142.1W
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
NIT  27/2100Z 18.5N 142.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 18.6N 143.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 19.4N 148.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 19.9N 150.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 20.4N 152.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 21.0N 155.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

floater_floater_EP072024_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20240827-1804.thumb.gif.1ab5739a51acaf0a3b972f93af2d21dd.gif

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Gilma or its remnants should affect Hawaii

5:00 AM HST Wed Aug 28
Location: 18.8°N 145.7°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

image.thumb.png.1179504aee9a059a63fdb85db9255d48.png

 

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  • The title was changed to Major Hurricane Gilma |Peak 130mph 949mb | 45 mph 1003 mb
  • The title was changed to Major Hurricane Gilma |Peak 130mph 949mb | dissipated

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