Jump to content

Hurricane ERNESTO |100mph 968mb Peak| post-tropical


StretchCT

Recommended Posts

  • Moderators
Posted (edited)

NHC has opened coverage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 5

Max forecast now at 110mph.

Spoiler
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated 
with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past 
several days.  Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that 
the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a 
well-defined center yet.  The associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible 
satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the 
circulation.  However, since the disturbance is forecast to become 
a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of 
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands 
during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Five.  The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters 
will be investigating this system on Monday.

The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is 
285/18-kt.  The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast 
west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h.  This motion 
should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. 
Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast 
should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by 
Wednesday and to the north thereafter.  This should bring the 
system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico 
Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico 
on Wednesday.  The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the 
latest GFS and ECMWF models.  Users should keep in mind that the 
track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more 
uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an 
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear.  Over the next 
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the 
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment.  Given 
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level 
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before 
it can organize into a tropical cyclone.  Around the time the system 
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly 
conducive environment for strengthening.  Therefore, once the system 
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to 
strengthen at a faster rate.  The favorable environment will likely 
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast 
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the 
western Atlantic.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the 
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the 
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before 
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in 
effect.  Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for 
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday 
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.

3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the 
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early 
Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress 
of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 13.6N  48.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  12/0600Z 14.3N  51.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  12/1800Z 15.2N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 36H  13/0600Z 15.9N  59.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 48H  13/1800Z 17.0N  62.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 18.3N  64.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 19.8N  66.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 23.9N  67.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 27.7N  66.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Screenshot2024-08-11at10_01_07PM.thumb.png.5fd16b4fb9b83dbb4e2d9388084dabdc.png

Shear is favorable right over the system, but ahead is stronger.  

image.thumb.png.6db91fe3e37c3a021d29f6d9c8b68b2c.png

But that shear area is forecast to move away from the system 

image.thumb.png.3524d17f1cb006e01ddcfa9fcc488c3f.png

Busy map - but convergence (blue) and divergence (yellow) not aligned yet, and not organized within themselves. Vorticity (orange line) is above the system. Dry air (orange splotches) is out ahead and forecast to stay just ahead of the storm.

image.thumb.png.c74953fcf093f79ed05a1eb31bceb127.pnggfs_midRH_eatl_fh18-48.thumb.gif.eb31b3afa0e7c8a8cec5495f756edcfe.gif

This one seems to be moving fast.  Currently 23mph. Hard to build westerlies into the circulation moving that fast.  

RI chances are lower, but not out of the question.

image.thumb.png.daa6b715bece0486699101325c914d9e.png

Should intensify nicely though once it gets going north. 

image.png.a9210bc710b70578641527d05a269588.png

Not a bad cluster of tracks. Only a few going west. The one that goes straight is the current motion extrapolated. 

image.png.9c9018b8f8574f81042e38134e8d90c4.png

Edited by StretchCT
  • LIKE 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • The title was changed to PTC 5 (ERNESTO) | 30mph |Developing
  • The title was changed to TS ERNESTO | 40mph 1009 MB|Developing
  • Moderators

Officially Ernesto now.

Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 57.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

 

They didn't seem too keen on naming it based on the discussion...  since the systems meets the definition...

Forecast to 110mph hr 120

Spoiler
Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

Satellite images and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters 
indicate that a center of circulation has now formed, and deep 
convection is gradually organizing in bands around that feature.  A 
combination of flight-level wind and SFMR data from the aircraft 
support increasing the winds to 35 kt.  Since the system meets the 
definition of a tropical cyclone and has winds of tropical storm 
force, it is now designated Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Based on the latest satellite images and aircraft data, the center 
has formed about 30 n mi north of the previous track.  This makes 
the initial motion uncertain, but our best estimate is 285/24 kt. 
This fast forward speed is due to a strong low- to mid-level ridge 
situated just north of the system over the subtropical Atlantic.  A 
fast west-northwestward motion is expected to continue, taking the 
storm across the northern Leeward Islands overnight and near or over 
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday 
night.  After that time, a significant slowdown and a turn to the 
north over the Atlantic is expected as a deep-layer trough pushes 
off the U.S. east coast, causing the ridge to shift eastward. The 
NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one in 
the short term and lies on the left edge of the guidance through 
Ernesto's track across the Caribbean.  This forecast is closer to 
the middle of the guidance envelope while it is over the western and 
central Atlantic.

Since Ernesto now has a center and a slightly improved circulation, 
strengthening seems likely.  However, the rate of intensification 
will likely be slow during the next day or two due to the system's 
broad structure and ragged convective pattern.  More significant 
strengthening is forecast after Ernesto exits the Caribbean, when 
nearly all of the environmental conditions appear conducive.  The 
NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in 
the short term, trending toward the latest consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday and to the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm 
Warnings are in effect for this entire area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through  
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to 
Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the 
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 16.0N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 16.2N  60.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 16.9N  63.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 18.5N  65.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 20.9N  67.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  15/0600Z 22.9N  67.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 25.0N  68.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 29.4N  66.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 32.5N  64.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators

8:00 AM AST Tue Aug 13
Location: 16.6°N 61.9°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Intensification expected tomorrow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 16.2N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 17.1N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 18.7N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 20.7N  67.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 23.0N  68.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 25.1N  68.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 27.2N  67.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 30.5N  65.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 33.5N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

This still looks pretty fishy.  This is actually pretty tightly clustered for days 4-7 Bermuda might be hit.

Ernestotracks.png.d13c8add61efaf1fb83d9e4955af1098.png

EPS only has one member with US landfall. UKMET, GFS and CMC have none.

8-130zepsmembers.png.60115c220918b89ff527e59f7ea8be0e.png

I would bet that this makes it to Cat 3.  Low shear, warm water once it heads north. 

image.png.2b398d9b15e1fac6fd469e5dd2a4f947.png

 

8-13 12z hurricane tracks.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • The title was changed to TS ERNESTO | 45mph 1005mb |Developing
  • Moderators
Posted (edited)

ADT really likes Ernesto for some reason.  Has it approaching hurricane strength.  Recon not finding that. 

image.thumb.png.55e0f9c8a3932311af975047ec1d867c.png

image.thumb.png.cc0b75e7a394c1f54afb800fb81ff260.png

image.thumb.png.002fac0d6bcaad4b6b9cb2cf7a90d142.png

Edited by StretchCT
  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators
Posted (edited)

Recon showing some wild sfmr winds.  something must be wrong.  Flight level not impressive though the structure is really coming along now.

Screenshot2024-08-13at10_54_57AM.thumb.png.5691d7c468c2dc44fb7dc9f8c824a8fb.png

Sonde has 64mph as the top wind

Screenshot2024-08-13at10_57_38AM.png.68e97701bc896e6cc0c0cafc34071a50.png

20242260810-20242261410-ABI-AL052024-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.thumb.gif.a2e14af752b3a3b19be775a5bcf8be18.gif

Edited by StretchCT
  • LIKE 1
  • THUMBS UP 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Buying the jog back to the north in the five-day cone.  Bermuda seems to be unavoidable…

 

IMG_4410.jpeg

Edited by Burr
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wind speed up 10mph since the 11am Bulletin.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
200 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO STILL 
STRENGTHENING...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB... 29.62 INCHES
  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators
Posted (edited)
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST 
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 64.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 18.0N  64.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 19.3N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 21.3N  67.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 23.4N  68.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 25.4N  68.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 27.2N  67.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 29.1N  66.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 32.7N  65.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 36.8N  64.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

image.thumb.png.e1b7a2e680a74979b41a4f51a51e17fa.png

image.thumb.png.e617fb26f23fb18e059a3da097498661.png image.thumb.gif.03b6d092d50c7ed374edbdfc5ecde6f7.gif 

 

 

 

Edited by StretchCT
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • The title was changed to TS ERNESTO | 60mph 1001mb | Strengthening
  • Moderators
Posted (edited)

Geez - Icon lowers it to 941 mb right as it approaches Bermuda.

image.thumb.png.805c73ca7c11db1d6b0ef92db3172d59.png

image.thumb.png.4f8844b9ce868b6299fbb540e6e3cf52.png

HAFS A has it as a major as it goes west of Bermuda

image.thumb.png.7acc78fad1249d204441b3d29ae816cf.png

HAFS B also goes west of Bermuda and makes it a major

image.thumb.png.b13f8edb5c1579e690826ce5cac24728.png

HMON passes west at 110kts.  HWRF is the only hurricane model on TT that doesn't go major. 

image.thumb.png.86e0f2923f4574e2dc2dfb302adad71e.png

Euro might be struggling this year.  Sends Ernie to the east as barely a hurricane

image.thumb.png.864cff3199ae1aaefcc963d46b72307e.png

Edited by StretchCT
  • MELTING 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
800 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 64.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH... 100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB... 29.47 INCHES
Edited by Burr
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators

Gotta wonder if the proximity of the islands is messing with the sfmr readings. 108 kts. 109 kts. 122kts... Flight level still not at hurricane strength.

Screenshot2024-08-13at9_45_19PM.thumb.png.69b9b3417c06b0fac2506569c8fec61d.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators
Posted (edited)

St Thomas with some minor gusts.  Pressure looks like its going back up now.

image.png.56666fc91769b6b5e6a11beb0b50b151.png

Vieques pressure still dropping, gusts not impressive there either.

image.png.ba314be35156dfc9a64a11fd5dffc4da.png 

St Croix pressure is rebounding, close to TS force winds.

image.png.bff3827a4985feace63764c59864dfe7.png 

On land gusts

image.png.82aaaf7f683e961f3308ac7021eb4e9d.png PRradar.thumb.gif.5c04fb7aab43fb755738e867a975585f.gif

 

Edited by StretchCT
  • THANKS 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators

11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13
Location: 18.8°N 65.3°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Still got some speed in it.  NHC goes ahead and forecasts a major

INIT  14/0300Z 18.8N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 20.3N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 22.4N  68.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 26.3N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 28.1N  67.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 29.9N  66.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 38.0N  63.0W   85 KT 100
The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified 
an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening 
over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and 
statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over 
the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models 
(particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. 

image.thumb.png.96b6ab956cfac10e81335adde8de60fa.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • The title was changed to TS ERNESTO | 65mph 998mb | Strengthening

As of 5am:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM
ERNESTO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 66.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH... 110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB... 29.42 INCHES
Edited by Burr
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8am:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
800 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 67.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • The title was changed to TS ERNESTO | 70mph 991mb | Strengthening
  • Moderators
14 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Euro might be struggling this year.  Sends Ernie to the east as barely a hurricane

Euro "trend".  Darkest is most recent. 

Screenshot2024-08-14at8_32_27AM.png.95c081da88d0d7aba2c5bec5e93dfd83.png

Meanwhile, GFS flips east of Bermuda. Though the shift isn't as great as Euro.

Screenshot2024-08-14at8_34_40AM.thumb.png.36e59f7005608f480e5ce7d9af02a0f4.png

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • The title was changed to Hurricane ERNESTO | 75mph 991mb | Strengthening
  • Moderators
Spoiler
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak
700-mb flight-level wind of 70 kt northeast of Ernesto's center, and
the crew reported a 50 percent eyewall.  In addition, Tail Doppler
radar from the NOAA P-3 aircraft measured winds over 75 kt at an
elevation of 500 meters.  Based on these data, Ernesto is upgraded
to a 65-kt hurricane.

Ernesto continues to move northwestward, or 310/14 kt, but is
expected to turn north-northwestward and northward later today and
tonight as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge caused
by a deep-layer trough off the east coast of the United States. This
trough is expected to leave Ernesto behind later this week, which
should cause a reduction in speed on Saturday and Sunday while the
storm is passing Bermuda.  By early next week, a second trough
moving across the eastern United States should cause Ernesto to
accelerate toward the north and north-northeast over the waters
south of Atlantic Canada.  The track guidance is in good agreement
during the first 48 hours, and the official forecast was only
shifted slightly westward to account for Ernesto's recent motion.
After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models, with
the GFS on the eastern edge of the envelope while the ECMWF shows
less turning and is on the western edge of the envelope.  The NHC
forecast has been nudged westward during this period and is very
close to the dynamical hurricane models.

Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane
might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry
air during the next several days.  That said, the intensity
guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official
forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours.  Much of the intensity guidance has
come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll
maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues.

Reasoning for bumping to a hurricane in the spoiler.  The average date for the 5th named storm is Aug 22, so we're just a bit ahead of schedule.  But the average date for the third hurricane is Sept 7th. 

11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 14
Location: 20.5°N 67.6°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
 

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...