Moderators StretchCT Posted August 12 Moderators Share Posted August 12 (edited) NHC has opened coverage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 Max forecast now at 110mph. Spoiler Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating this system on Monday. The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is 285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given the current organizational state of the convection and low-level wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the consensus aids beyond a couple of days. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday. 3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi Shear is favorable right over the system, but ahead is stronger. But that shear area is forecast to move away from the system Busy map - but convergence (blue) and divergence (yellow) not aligned yet, and not organized within themselves. Vorticity (orange line) is above the system. Dry air (orange splotches) is out ahead and forecast to stay just ahead of the storm. This one seems to be moving fast. Currently 23mph. Hard to build westerlies into the circulation moving that fast. RI chances are lower, but not out of the question. Should intensify nicely though once it gets going north. Not a bad cluster of tracks. Only a few going west. The one that goes straight is the current motion extrapolated. Edited August 21 by StretchCT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 12 Author Moderators Share Posted August 12 Link to the video that Levi put out explaining the development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 12 Author Moderators Share Posted August 12 Maybe a little better. Some evidence of surface circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 12 Author Moderators Share Posted August 12 (edited) AI-RI is saying it's going to launch soon. recon finding TS winds Edited August 12 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 12 Author Moderators Share Posted August 12 Officially Ernesto now. Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 57.5W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES They didn't seem too keen on naming it based on the discussion... since the systems meets the definition... Forecast to 110mph hr 120 Spoiler Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 Satellite images and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that a center of circulation has now formed, and deep convection is gradually organizing in bands around that feature. A combination of flight-level wind and SFMR data from the aircraft support increasing the winds to 35 kt. Since the system meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and has winds of tropical storm force, it is now designated Tropical Storm Ernesto. Based on the latest satellite images and aircraft data, the center has formed about 30 n mi north of the previous track. This makes the initial motion uncertain, but our best estimate is 285/24 kt. This fast forward speed is due to a strong low- to mid-level ridge situated just north of the system over the subtropical Atlantic. A fast west-northwestward motion is expected to continue, taking the storm across the northern Leeward Islands overnight and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night. After that time, a significant slowdown and a turn to the north over the Atlantic is expected as a deep-layer trough pushes off the U.S. east coast, causing the ridge to shift eastward. The NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one in the short term and lies on the left edge of the guidance through Ernesto's track across the Caribbean. This forecast is closer to the middle of the guidance envelope while it is over the western and central Atlantic. Since Ernesto now has a center and a slightly improved circulation, strengthening seems likely. However, the rate of intensification will likely be slow during the next day or two due to the system's broad structure and ragged convective pattern. More significant strengthening is forecast after Ernesto exits the Caribbean, when nearly all of the environmental conditions appear conducive. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday and to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for this entire area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands through Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. 3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.0N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.2N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 18.5N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 20.9N 67.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 22.9N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 25.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 66.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 32.5N 64.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 13 Author Moderators Share Posted August 13 8:00 AM AST Tue Aug 13 Location: 16.6°N 61.9°W Moving: W at 18 mph Min pressure: 1005 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Intensification expected tomorrow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.2N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.7N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 20.7N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.0N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 25.1N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH This still looks pretty fishy. This is actually pretty tightly clustered for days 4-7 Bermuda might be hit. EPS only has one member with US landfall. UKMET, GFS and CMC have none. I would bet that this makes it to Cat 3. Low shear, warm water once it heads north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 13 Author Moderators Share Posted August 13 More of a TS storm vibe now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 13 Author Moderators Share Posted August 13 (edited) ADT really likes Ernesto for some reason. Has it approaching hurricane strength. Recon not finding that. Edited August 13 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 13 Author Moderators Share Posted August 13 (edited) Recon showing some wild sfmr winds. something must be wrong. Flight level not impressive though the structure is really coming along now. Sonde has 64mph as the top wind Edited August 13 by StretchCT 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 (edited) Buying the jog back to the north in the five-day cone. Bermuda seems to be unavoidable… Edited August 13 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Wind speed up 10mph since the 11am Bulletin. BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO STILL STRENGTHENING... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 63.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB... 29.62 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 13 Author Moderators Share Posted August 13 (edited) Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 64.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.3N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 21.3N 67.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 23.4N 68.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 25.4N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 29.1N 66.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 32.7N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 36.8N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH Edited August 13 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 13 Author Moderators Share Posted August 13 (edited) Geez - Icon lowers it to 941 mb right as it approaches Bermuda. HAFS A has it as a major as it goes west of Bermuda HAFS B also goes west of Bermuda and makes it a major HMON passes west at 110kts. HWRF is the only hurricane model on TT that doesn't go major. Euro might be struggling this year. Sends Ernie to the east as barely a hurricane Edited August 13 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 (edited) BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE PASSING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 64.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH... 100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB... 29.47 INCHES Edited August 14 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 14 Author Moderators Share Posted August 14 Gotta wonder if the proximity of the islands is messing with the sfmr readings. 108 kts. 109 kts. 122kts... Flight level still not at hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 14 Author Moderators Share Posted August 14 (edited) St Thomas with some minor gusts. Pressure looks like its going back up now. Vieques pressure still dropping, gusts not impressive there either. St Croix pressure is rebounding, close to TS force winds. On land gusts Edited August 14 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 14 Author Moderators Share Posted August 14 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 13 Location: 18.8°N 65.3°W Moving: NW at 17 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 65 mph Still got some speed in it. NHC goes ahead and forecasts a major INIT 14/0300Z 18.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models (particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 (edited) As of 5am: BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM ERNESTO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 66.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH... 110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB... 29.42 INCHES Edited August 14 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 8am: BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 ...FLOODING RAINS FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 67.2W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 14 Author Moderators Share Posted August 14 14 hours ago, StretchCT said: Euro might be struggling this year. Sends Ernie to the east as barely a hurricane Euro "trend". Darkest is most recent. Meanwhile, GFS flips east of Bermuda. Though the shift isn't as great as Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 14 Author Moderators Share Posted August 14 PR Radar this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 14 Author Moderators Share Posted August 14 Satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 14 Author Moderators Share Posted August 14 Winds picked up since midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 14 Author Moderators Share Posted August 14 Spoiler Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 70 kt northeast of Ernesto's center, and the crew reported a 50 percent eyewall. In addition, Tail Doppler radar from the NOAA P-3 aircraft measured winds over 75 kt at an elevation of 500 meters. Based on these data, Ernesto is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Ernesto continues to move northwestward, or 310/14 kt, but is expected to turn north-northwestward and northward later today and tonight as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer trough off the east coast of the United States. This trough is expected to leave Ernesto behind later this week, which should cause a reduction in speed on Saturday and Sunday while the storm is passing Bermuda. By early next week, a second trough moving across the eastern United States should cause Ernesto to accelerate toward the north and north-northeast over the waters south of Atlantic Canada. The track guidance is in good agreement during the first 48 hours, and the official forecast was only shifted slightly westward to account for Ernesto's recent motion. After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models, with the GFS on the eastern edge of the envelope while the ECMWF shows less turning and is on the western edge of the envelope. The NHC forecast has been nudged westward during this period and is very close to the dynamical hurricane models. Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry air during the next several days. That said, the intensity guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major hurricane in about 48 hours. Much of the intensity guidance has come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues. Reasoning for bumping to a hurricane in the spoiler. The average date for the 5th named storm is Aug 22, so we're just a bit ahead of schedule. But the average date for the third hurricane is Sept 7th. 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 14 Location: 20.5°N 67.6°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 991 mb Max sustained: 75 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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