Moderators StretchCT Posted August 5 Moderators Share Posted August 5 (edited) Busy in the EPAC - Fabio was named and not expected to do much. It was speculated, last night in Emilia's disco, it would eat Emilia. Now its the other way around. ...TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 106.9W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today. After that, Fabio is expected to weaken, and the system is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday night or Thursday. Edited August 7 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 5 Author Moderators Share Posted August 5 Sat of the EPAC - Carlotta in upper left. Emilia in the center, Daniel on the left and Fabio on the right. Daniel and Fabio don't look like TSs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 7 Author Moderators Share Posted August 7 Fabio at 65mph (top) and Emilia also at 65mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 7 Author Moderators Share Posted August 7 (edited) Wide view of EPAC with Fabio being absorbed by Emilia 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Fabio is barely a tropical cyclone this morning. Water vapor imagery shows dry air wrapping into the circulation from the west, and vertical wind shear associated with nearby Tropical Storm Emilia continues to disrupt the convective organization of Fabio. Currently, the storm is only producing small bursts of sheared convection over 100 n mi to the northeast of its exposed low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt. Passive microwave and proxy-visible satellite images indicate Fabio is now moving south of due west (265/18 kt). This general motion should continue through tonight while Fabio interacts with the outer circulation of Emilia. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one based on recent motion trends. Given the hostile environmental conditions described above, Fabio appears unlikely to become better organized in the short term. The NHC forecast shows Fabio becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 12 h before merging with Emilia on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 20.1N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED Edited August 7 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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