Moderators StretchCT Posted August 5 Moderators Share Posted August 5 (edited) Spoiler Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 The organization of the tropical cyclone has improved on satellite imagery since the previous advisory. The subjective CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.5/35 kt, and the CIMSS objective intensity estimates range from 33 to 35 kt. Earlier ASCAT data from around 17 UTC had peak wind vectors of 31 kt, and the organization on satellite imagery has certainty improved since that time, with the cyclone becoming more compact. Based on the Dvorak estimates, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Emilia with an initial intensity of 35 kt. The track forecast for Emilia is very dependent on a disturbance to the east of the system (Invest 96E), which has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. Most of the global models show both systems interacting with and rotating cyclonically around each other. Emilia should move to the south-southwest for the next 24 h, while it is located to the west of 96E. After that time, the larger circulation of 96E should pull the smaller Emilia toward the northwest or north-northwest. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. 96E and Emilia should merge together into one cyclone over the next couple of days, but it is uncertain which cyclone will be dominant and which cyclone will be absorbed. This forecast assumes that 96E will absorb Emilia, with Emilia dissipating beyond 48 h. However, it is quite possible that the opposite occurs, with Emilia absorbing 96E. Either way, I expect a tropical cyclone (the merged system) to be moving west-northwestward in 3 to 4 days, spreading tropical storm conditions across the open waters of the Pacific. The ECMWF model shows the two systems merging in 36-48 h, but the latest GFS model predicts a longer binary interaction, with the merger occurring in 3 to 4 days. Until the disturbance to the east starts to interact with Emilia, the environment appears favorable for intensification, and the intensity guidance has trended upward this cycle. The new NHC forecast shows Emilia strengthening to a 55 kt tropical storm in 36 h. This is near, or slightly below the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. The thinking is that Emilia will merge with 96E after that time, and 96E will likely be a tropical storm at the time of the merger. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.0N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 14.3N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED Can't say I've seen a storm go from 65mph to dissapated in 12 hrs but theres an explanation for it in the spoiler. Things are definitely interesting in the EPAC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.0N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 14.3N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED You can see Carlotta in the upper left. Then the next TS is to the right of Emilia (center). And it looks gigantic It's path is really interesting Edited August 8 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 5 Author Moderators Share Posted August 5 (edited) Emilia is now the anticipated victor with Fabio The latest global model runs continue to suggest that Emilia will be the survivor in interaction with the newly formed Tropical Storm Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear. The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and forecasts a peak intensity of 60 kt in 48 h. After that time, Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast. It should be noted that this forecast is low confidence due to the possibility that Fabio might still end up as the dominant cyclone. Edited August 5 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 7 Author Moderators Share Posted August 7 Both Emilia (bottom) and Fabio are 65mph storms now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 7 Author Moderators Share Posted August 7 Emilia won that battle and is now 70mph, but not expected make it to hurricane level as it heads to cooler waters. It is also absorbing Fabio Spoiler 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass indicate that Emilia has become better organized this morning. The northeasterly shear impeding the system's northeast quadrant has decreased, allowing for improved outflow aloft. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops of -88C has formed over the surface center, and the microwave image revealed a banding eye feature wrapping from the south side of the cyclone. The satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and 55 kt, respectively, and a recent SATCON analysis indicated 57 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. Although the northeasterly deep-layer shear that has been inhibiting Emilia's growth has subsided, the cyclone is expected to move over decreasing oceanic surface temperatures later today while the thermodynamic environment becomes less conducive. Therefore, weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning. By the 48-hour period, Emilia should spin down and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low, and this is in agreement with the deterministic models and the statistical hurricane intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/15 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday while the cyclone moves around the southwest periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical high. Toward the end of the period, vertically shallow Emilia is expected to turn toward the west within the low-level trade wind flow and eventually open up into a trough around day 5. Only slight along-track adjustments were made to this forecast, closely following the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts Close up of Emilia ingesting Fabio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted August 7 Admin Share Posted August 7 15 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Emilia won that battle and is now 70mph, but not expected make it to hurricane level as it heads to cooler waters. It is also absorbing Fabio Reveal hidden contents 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass indicate that Emilia has become better organized this morning. The northeasterly shear impeding the system's northeast quadrant has decreased, allowing for improved outflow aloft. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops of -88C has formed over the surface center, and the microwave image revealed a banding eye feature wrapping from the south side of the cyclone. The satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and 55 kt, respectively, and a recent SATCON analysis indicated 57 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. Although the northeasterly deep-layer shear that has been inhibiting Emilia's growth has subsided, the cyclone is expected to move over decreasing oceanic surface temperatures later today while the thermodynamic environment becomes less conducive. Therefore, weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning. By the 48-hour period, Emilia should spin down and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low, and this is in agreement with the deterministic models and the statistical hurricane intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/15 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday while the cyclone moves around the southwest periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical high. Toward the end of the period, vertically shallow Emilia is expected to turn toward the west within the low-level trade wind flow and eventually open up into a trough around day 5. Only slight along-track adjustments were made to this forecast, closely following the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts Close up of Emilia ingesting Fabio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Emilia won that battle and is now 70mph, but not expected make it to hurricane level as it heads to cooler waters. It is also absorbing Fabio Reveal hidden contents 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass indicate that Emilia has become better organized this morning. The northeasterly shear impeding the system's northeast quadrant has decreased, allowing for improved outflow aloft. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops of -88C has formed over the surface center, and the microwave image revealed a banding eye feature wrapping from the south side of the cyclone. The satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and 55 kt, respectively, and a recent SATCON analysis indicated 57 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. Although the northeasterly deep-layer shear that has been inhibiting Emilia's growth has subsided, the cyclone is expected to move over decreasing oceanic surface temperatures later today while the thermodynamic environment becomes less conducive. Therefore, weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning. By the 48-hour period, Emilia should spin down and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low, and this is in agreement with the deterministic models and the statistical hurricane intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/15 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday while the cyclone moves around the southwest periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical high. Toward the end of the period, vertically shallow Emilia is expected to turn toward the west within the low-level trade wind flow and eventually open up into a trough around day 5. Only slight along-track adjustments were made to this forecast, closely following the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts Close up of Emilia ingesting Fabio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 8 Author Moderators Share Posted August 8 Just Emilia now in the EPAC. 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 Location: 21.2°N 123.3°W Moving: WNW at 18 mph Min pressure: 1002 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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