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TS Emilia | Peak 70mph 992 mb |40mph 1002mb


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Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.441cc059eade384259b573995d80d30f.png

Spoiler
Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024

The organization of the tropical cyclone has improved on satellite 
imagery since the previous advisory.  The subjective CI numbers from 
TAFB and SAB are both T-2.5/35 kt, and the CIMSS objective intensity 
estimates range from 33 to 35 kt.  Earlier ASCAT data from around 17 
UTC had peak wind vectors of 31 kt, and the organization on 
satellite imagery has certainty improved since that time, with the 
cyclone becoming more compact.  Based on the Dvorak estimates, the 
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Emilia with an initial 
intensity of 35 kt.

The track forecast for Emilia is very dependent on a disturbance to 
the east of the system (Invest 96E), which has a high chance of 
becoming a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. Most of the 
global models show both systems interacting with and rotating 
cyclonically around each other.  Emilia should move to the 
south-southwest for the next 24 h, while it is located to the west 
of 96E.  After that time, the larger circulation of 96E should pull 
the smaller Emilia toward the northwest or north-northwest.  Only 
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.  96E 
and Emilia should merge together into one cyclone over the next 
couple of days, but it is uncertain which cyclone will be dominant 
and which cyclone will be absorbed.  This forecast assumes that 96E 
will absorb Emilia, with Emilia dissipating beyond 48 h.  However, 
it is quite possible that the opposite occurs, with Emilia absorbing 
96E.  Either way, I expect a tropical cyclone (the merged system) to 
be moving west-northwestward in 3 to 4 days, spreading tropical 
storm conditions across the open waters of the Pacific.  The ECMWF 
model shows the two systems merging in 36-48 h, but the latest GFS 
model predicts a longer binary interaction, with the merger 
occurring in 3 to 4 days.  

Until the disturbance to the east starts to interact with Emilia, 
the environment appears favorable for intensification, and the 
intensity guidance has trended upward this cycle.  The new NHC 
forecast shows Emilia strengthening to a 55 kt tropical storm in 36 
h.  This is near, or slightly below the middle of the intensity 
guidance envelope.  The thinking is that Emilia will merge with 96E 
after that time, and 96E will likely be a tropical storm at the 
time of the merger.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 15.0N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 14.2N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 14.3N 113.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Can't say I've seen a storm go from 65mph to dissapated in 12 hrs but theres an explanation for it in the spoiler.  Things are definitely interesting in the EPAC

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 15.0N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 14.2N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 14.3N 113.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

You can see Carlotta in the upper left.  Then the next TS is to the right of Emilia (center). And it looks gigantic

 

image.thumb.gif.21aa1d924e3074539eb32746b6c46858.gif

It's path is really interesting

image.thumb.png.b1a07c355f1b424f9d08c053ff2ea05f.png

Edited by StretchCT
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Posted (edited)

Emilia is now the anticipated victor with Fabio

The latest global model runs continue to suggest that Emilia will be 
the survivor in interaction with the newly formed Tropical Storm 
Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this 
scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear.  
The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and 
forecasts a peak intensity of 60 kt in 48 h.  After that time, 
Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea 
surface temperatures.  The new forecast is basically an update of 
the previous forecast.  It should be noted that this forecast is low 
confidence due to the possibility that Fabio might still end up as 
the dominant cyclone.

goes16_vis-swir_epac.thumb.gif.25ce89101fb3a1384b3259d8a189bf43.gif

 

Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to TS Emilia | 65mph 992 mb
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Emilia won that battle and is now 70mph, but not expected make it to hurricane level as it heads to cooler waters.  It is also absorbing Fabio

 

Spoiler
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave 
overpass indicate that Emilia has become better organized this 
morning.  The northeasterly shear impeding the system's northeast 
quadrant has decreased, allowing for improved outflow aloft.  A 
Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops of -88C has formed over 
the surface center, and the microwave image revealed a banding eye 
feature wrapping from the south side of the cyclone.  The satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and 55 kt, 
respectively, and a recent SATCON analysis indicated 57 kt.  Based 
on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.

Although the northeasterly deep-layer shear that has been inhibiting 
Emilia's growth has subsided, the cyclone is expected to move over 
decreasing oceanic surface temperatures later today while the 
thermodynamic environment becomes less conducive.  Therefore, 
weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning.  By the 
48-hour period, Emilia should spin down and degenerate into a 
post-tropical remnant low, and this is in agreement with the 
deterministic models and the statistical hurricane intensity 
guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/15 kt.  
A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is 
expected on Thursday while the cyclone moves around the southwest 
periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical high.  Toward the end of 
the period, vertically shallow Emilia is expected to turn toward the 
west within the low-level trade wind flow and eventually open up 
into a trough around day 5.  Only slight along-track adjustments 
were made to this forecast, closely following the various consensus 
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 17.6N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Close up of Emilia ingesting Fabio

image.thumb.gif.4bb20acf476acf6f9f29e12497bfb774.gif

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15 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Emilia won that battle and is now 70mph, but not expected make it to hurricane level as it heads to cooler waters.  It is also absorbing Fabio

 

  Reveal hidden contents
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave 
overpass indicate that Emilia has become better organized this 
morning.  The northeasterly shear impeding the system's northeast 
quadrant has decreased, allowing for improved outflow aloft.  A 
Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops of -88C has formed over 
the surface center, and the microwave image revealed a banding eye 
feature wrapping from the south side of the cyclone.  The satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and 55 kt, 
respectively, and a recent SATCON analysis indicated 57 kt.  Based 
on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.

Although the northeasterly deep-layer shear that has been inhibiting 
Emilia's growth has subsided, the cyclone is expected to move over 
decreasing oceanic surface temperatures later today while the 
thermodynamic environment becomes less conducive.  Therefore, 
weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning.  By the 
48-hour period, Emilia should spin down and degenerate into a 
post-tropical remnant low, and this is in agreement with the 
deterministic models and the statistical hurricane intensity 
guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/15 kt.  
A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is 
expected on Thursday while the cyclone moves around the southwest 
periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical high.  Toward the end of 
the period, vertically shallow Emilia is expected to turn toward the 
west within the low-level trade wind flow and eventually open up 
into a trough around day 5.  Only slight along-track adjustments 
were made to this forecast, closely following the various consensus 
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 17.6N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Close up of Emilia ingesting Fabio

image.thumb.gif.4bb20acf476acf6f9f29e12497bfb774.gif

 

31368701ad7e52156e47eaa2df47378d.jpg

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Emilia won that battle and is now 70mph, but not expected make it to hurricane level as it heads to cooler waters.  It is also absorbing Fabio

 

  Reveal hidden contents
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave 
overpass indicate that Emilia has become better organized this 
morning.  The northeasterly shear impeding the system's northeast 
quadrant has decreased, allowing for improved outflow aloft.  A 
Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops of -88C has formed over 
the surface center, and the microwave image revealed a banding eye 
feature wrapping from the south side of the cyclone.  The satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and 55 kt, 
respectively, and a recent SATCON analysis indicated 57 kt.  Based 
on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.

Although the northeasterly deep-layer shear that has been inhibiting 
Emilia's growth has subsided, the cyclone is expected to move over 
decreasing oceanic surface temperatures later today while the 
thermodynamic environment becomes less conducive.  Therefore, 
weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning.  By the 
48-hour period, Emilia should spin down and degenerate into a 
post-tropical remnant low, and this is in agreement with the 
deterministic models and the statistical hurricane intensity 
guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/15 kt.  
A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is 
expected on Thursday while the cyclone moves around the southwest 
periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical high.  Toward the end of 
the period, vertically shallow Emilia is expected to turn toward the 
west within the low-level trade wind flow and eventually open up 
into a trough around day 5.  Only slight along-track adjustments 
were made to this forecast, closely following the various consensus 
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 17.6N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Close up of Emilia ingesting Fabio

image.thumb.gif.4bb20acf476acf6f9f29e12497bfb774.gif

 

giphy (1) (13).gif

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Just Emilia now in the EPAC.  

8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 8
Location: 21.2°N 123.3°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

goes16_vis-swir_epac(2).thumb.gif.006b216fc4c89346495ab56879205dfd.gif

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  • The title was changed to TS Emilia | Peak 70mph 992 mb |40mph 1002mb

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