Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1 Moderators Share Posted August 1 (edited) TS Carlotta was born Spoiler Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024 ...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 108.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 108.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn back west-northwestward and then westward is anticipated over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecasted over the next few days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Currently 60mph expected to top 100mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH Edited August 7 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1 Author Moderators Share Posted August 1 Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 2 Author Moderators Share Posted August 2 Carlotta is a hurricane Now expected to peak at 100mph Spoiler Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Since the previous advisory, Carlotta's structure on satellite imagery has improved, with a banding eye showing up on both infrared and visible frames. We have been also receiving helpful surface observations from Isla Clarion which earlier reported sustained winds of 47 kt with a gust of 71 kt and a minimum pressure of 986 mb as Carlotta passed by just to the north. These data, along with subjective and objective intensity estimates in the 65-77 kt range are the basis to increase the initial intensity to 70 kt, making Carlotta the first hurricane of the East Pacific season. Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward, estimated at 285/12-kt. This heading with a gradual slowdown is expected to continue for the next several days as the hurricane remains influenced by a large deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The track guidance this cycle has not changed much other than another subtle shift north again, and the NHC track forecast was nudged again in that direction. The small hurricane has an opportunity to intensify further over the next day or so while it remains over warm ocean waters and low to moderate vertical wind shear. Similar to the previous advisory, the NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity as a Category 2 hurricane in 24-36 hours. However beyond that time, sea-surface temperatures decrease under 26 C and continue to cool as the environmental moisture becomes increasingly dry and stable. Thus, weakening should begin in earnest after that time period, with the system becoming post-tropical as it loses its remaining convection by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.9N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 22.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 3 Author Moderators Share Posted August 3 90mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 3 Author Moderators Share Posted August 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 5 Author Moderators Share Posted August 5 winding down. Now at 50mph. Sat gives a twofer with a mess of clouds called Daniel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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