Moderators StretchCT Posted July 25 Moderators Share Posted July 25 At 430 AM PDT (1130 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 115.0 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night. Recent surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is expected to begin weakening later today or tonight, and the system is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). Tropical Storm Bud Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Recent surface observations from the Mexican Navy station on Isla Clarion reported sustained winds of 49 kt with a pressure of 1004 mb as Bud passed to the south of the station. Given that ASCAT from a few hours ago showed vectors as high as 44 kt, the observations from the island are consistent. The only change to the NHC forecast is to increase the forecast wind speed through the 24-hour point, due to the higher initial intensity. The observations from Isla Clarion also suggest the gust factor is a little higher than normal, and this is indicated in the Forecast/Advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1130Z 18.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 25 Author Moderators Share Posted July 25 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that Bud continues to maintain its intensity. The vertical wind shear has clearly weakened over the past day or so, as a pair of recent 1659 and 1753 UTC ASCAT passes indicate that the center is well embedded underneath the central convective area. Based on the ASCAT data and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next 24 h. As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn towards the west-southwest and decelerate. The new NHC forecast has again been adjusted a bit to the north and faster to the west, following the trend in the guidance, but the NHC forecast is still to the southeast of the latest consensus models. As Bud traverses sea-surface temperatures of around 27C over the next day or two, the vertical wind shear should remain relatively low. The SHIPS guidance suggests that Bud is moving into a stable airmass, which should cause the cyclone to begin weakening by tonight or on Friday. No significant changes have been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which still lies near the intensity consensus, above the weaker dynamical model guidance, and below the stronger statistical guidance. Bud is forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.6N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.7N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.6N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.4N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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