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July 7-11, 2024 | Beryl Heavy Rain/Severe Potential


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Beryl will make landfall on the SE Texas coast and track up through the OV and Great Lakes area bringing heavy rain and possible severe weather/tornadoes. The day 3 disco mentions the possible need for higher probs.

 

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  • The title was changed to July 7-11, 2024 | Beryl Heavy Rain/Severe Potential

Reposting this from July thread:

 

As far as the remnants of Beryl...

Not quite sure where it will set up, but it looks like there could be a swath of about 3-6" of rain somewhere around here.  Also potential for some gusty winds near the track, perhaps near (or even over) 40 mph depending on how much mixing occurs.  Low levels should have some stability with the clouds/precip but any heavier rain/embedded convective elements could cause more efficient momentum transport.

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Just starting to enter the picture on this image, but it looks like temps could be held in the 60s on the northwest flank of the remnants where the heaviest rains set up.

HRRRMW_sfc_temp_048.png.5caac692177e67b0639ba10023be1ca0.png

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Posted (edited)

As far as remnant tropical systems in the Ohio Valley/Lakes go, it looks like this one could be better than average for the areas that get in on it.  Not only a good signal for a band of 3-6" of rain (locally higher?), but also some signs of wind gusts increasing to the 40-50 mph range for a period of time.  

Edited by Hoosier
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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

As far as remnant tropical systems in the Ohio Valley/Lakes go, it looks like this one could be better than average for the areas that get in on it.  Not only a good signal for a band of 3-6" of rain (locally higher?), but also some signs of wind gusts increasing to the 40-50 mph range for a period of time.  

Interesting about the wind gusts. Makes me think of Ike

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2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Interesting about the wind gusts. Makes me think of Ike

Ike was just nuts in terms of wind.  Won't be quite like that lol, but enough to take notice.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

 

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

 

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER

   AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY...

 

   ...SUMMARY...

   Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or

   tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley

   tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are

   also possible over portions of New England.

 

   ...Synopsis...

   Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early

   Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the

   southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity.

   Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated

   throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the

   eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH

   Valleys. 

 

   Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly

   eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough

   glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther

   west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern

   CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging

   will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the

   western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early

   Wednesday morning.

 

   ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley...

   Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely

   begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking

   northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near

   the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN

   by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will

   bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just

   ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest

   buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover.

 

   Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead

   of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where

   convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical

   within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will

   likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular

   storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist

   throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to

   relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the

   hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis

   within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the

   warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing

   the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado

   threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e.

   southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before

   shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the

   Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z.

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11 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

Pretty impressive tornado event from Beryl today, I've seen quite a few PDS warnings so far 

Wonder if this system's efficient tornado production is tipping its hand as far as how tomorrow goes.  

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ILN talking tornadoes tomorrow evening.

Quote
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Inverted trough across the region at the beginning of the period
will become more pronounced during the day as the remnants of
Beryl move northeast. This boundary will become an effective
warm front and lift as the center of the low circulation moves
into eastern Indiana by daybreak Wednesday. With backed winds
and gradually increasing flow, hodographs will take on a
favorable orientation. In addition, LCLs are forecast to lower
as the atmospheric column moistens. It may be too moist to have
much instability or thunder, but conditions could become
favorable for tornadoes, as can typically happen on the eastern
side of tropical remnants. This is highly conditional, but will
have to be watched closely heading into Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Expect to see showers and some thunderstorms develop into the
forecast area on Tuesday afternoon and become widespread
generally north and west of I-71 Tuesday night. South and east
of there precipitation may be more transient and not necessarily
occurring everywhere.

Given the track of the low center, widespread heavy rain is not
a substantial concern, especially given the generally dry
antecedent conditions. But with tropical moisture, cannot
discount the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Expect a relatively strong gradient in temperatures on Tuesday
with highs in the lower 80s in eastern Indiana but still
reaching the lower 90s in south central Ohio and northeast
Kentucky. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s again.

 

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The raw 2m temps from various models actually has temps down in the low 60s Wednesday afternoon on the northwestern side of the low.  That would be pretty impressive for July 10.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The raw 2m temps from various models actually has temps down in the low 60s Wednesday afternoon on the northwestern side of the low.  That would be pretty impressive for July 10.

With the wind that could make for a very chilly raw day by July standards 

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Appears a confirmed tornado headed towards Shreveport LA.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
527 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

LAC017-031-082300-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0084.000000T0000Z-240708T2300Z/
De Soto LA-Caddo LA-
527 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL DE SOTO AND SOUTHWESTERN CADDO PARISHES...

At 527 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles northeast of
Stonewall, or 8 miles southeast of Shreveport, moving northwest at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Shreveport around 530 PM CDT.
  Greenwood around 555 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Forbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 9397 3256 9377 3255 9376 3254 9377
      3253 9375 3241 9369 3240 9369 3232 9364
      3227 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 141DEG 18KT 3235 9374

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

 

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