Hurricane Beryl | 935mb165mph peak| postropical

StretchCT · June 28, 2024

We have TD two which is looking pretty gnarly on the model runs today. Here is the general direction as of 12z. Lets watch if this shifts much. With the forecast already so strong, the wildcard might be that it isn't as strong and heads further south possibly impacting Jamaica and the Caymans. If its stronger and moves poleward, then its devastating to DR/PR. Right now, theres quite a bit consensus given its 5 days out.

HWRF, HMON, HAPS A&B all have this getting very strong, between 100 and 126 kts as it is south of Haiti

Edited July 9, 2024 by StretchCT

StretchCT · June 29, 2024

Servers are referring to this storm as Beryl now.

snowlover2 · June 29, 2024

3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Servers are referring to this storm as Beryl now.

It's official now.

Quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BERYL...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 43.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system.  Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the area early Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days.  On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is 
expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF:  Swells generated by the system are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

StretchCT · June 29, 2024

Barbados/St Lucia down to Grenada have to be prepping for this one. Odd to see one so far south. Grenada is where a lot of insurance companies suggest/insist you store your boat for hurricane season.

HWRF hits St Vincent dead on, sparing St Lucia worst, but Barbados sees some very bad conditions.

HMON puts brutal conditions on St Vincent. Scary stuff for them. 115kt sustained.

HAFS is a little weaker, further south. Hoping this is the solution.

HAFS b in line with HMON and HWRF

StretchCT · June 29, 2024

After it hits the Islands, then what?

Intensity seems to diminish

Path seems to like Jamaica

But at that point there is pretty good spread in the models.

HWRF and other hurricane models keeps it strong though and further north. Yes thats another one behind it.

LiveWire_13 · June 29, 2024

Watched Tropical Tidbits YT analysis last night and was left with a few takeways about this TS.
1. If it grows more rapidly now, it's likely to track further north.
2. Wind sheer - in this case 180 degree difference between low level and high level winds - are expected to diminish for a while until it gets into Gulf of Mexico.
3. There's a high sitting over southwest US and another high sitting over the Atlantic, which would likely limit any northward curve through a narrow gap.

One of the things I'm unclear about, how can the trailing storm do anything but sputter? Shouldn't Beryl suck up all of the heat energy in it's path?

StretchCT · June 29, 2024

Beryl looking pretty good, almost there.

11:00 AM AST Sat Jun 29
Location: 10.0°N 47.8°W
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Euro has some catching up to do.

LiveWire_13 · June 29, 2024

Beryl already at hurricane status and expected to grow fast.

StretchCT · June 29, 2024

Hurricane now.

5:00 PM AST Sat Jun 29
Location: 10.1°N 49.3°W
Moving: W at 22 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 10.1N  49.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 10.6N  51.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 11.3N  55.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 12.0N  58.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 13.1N  62.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 14.3N  66.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 15.5N  69.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 17.3N  77.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 18.7N  83.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

Edited June 29, 2024 by StretchCT

StretchCT · June 29, 2024

Intensity guidance is still keeping it strong through 72 hrs then weakening

Rapid intensity model is all over this. First number is how many knots it picks up, second number over time. So 20 kt increase in 12 hrs, 25 kt increase in 24 hrs, etc.

ADT with the center and winds

Edited June 29, 2024 by StretchCT

Burr · June 30, 2024

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 50.3W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

Burr · June 30, 2024

Edited June 30, 2024 by Burr

Burr · June 30, 2024

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 51.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

Burr · June 30, 2024

Undertakerson2.0 · June 30, 2024

Nothing to stop it from EXPLODING rn

MaineJay · June 30, 2024

Hot damn

Undertakerson2.0 · June 30, 2024

31 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Hot damn

29-30C water temps and Zero Shear. Woohooo. We have liftoff!!

Edited June 30, 2024 by Undertakerson2.0

Undertakerson2.0 · June 30, 2024

110Mph found near CoC by Recon (2, I think)

MaineJay · June 30, 2024

Pretty impressive on microwave imagery.

Undertakerson2.0 · June 30, 2024

LWMA indicates Beryl stays N of 10N (lat) and that, my friends, is a very BAD thing for those in its path. (10N Lat. and below is considered an inhibiting factor to a TC)