StormfanaticInd Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Pretty decent setup showing for this period. Could be a couple of long lived severe mcs(derecho?). There will plenty of instability/shear to work with which usually means trouble in the summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 👀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Some storms should get going into an MCS in Minnesota tomorrow night, probably into Wisconsin. The CAMs are not in much agreement as to when and where initial storms will get going. Hey, want to see an insane forecast sounding for CAPE? Here it is, with over 8000 J/kg of CAPE. It's at the southwest corner of Minnesota. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 Hi res models are not that excited about tomorrow. Hmmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. Storms will be capable of large hail, and a cluster potentially capable of destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level trough will continue to transition eastward and modestly amplify over the Canadian Prairies, with southern-peripheral height falls and strengthening westerlies from North Dakota/northern Minnesota toward the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. In this same corridor, a weak MCV may be evolving this morning over eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota, while these scattered thunderstorms will probably also influence and somewhat hinder the effective north-northeastward of a warm front later today across Minnesota and Wisconsin. A very moist (low 70s F dewpoints) and unstable air mass will otherwise develop northeastward regionally in tandem with the warm front as surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Siouxland and southern Minnesota through evening. Upwards of 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected within the warm sector, with very warm mid-level temperatures associated with the elevated mixed-layer plume likely limiting warm sector development away from (south of) the immediate triple point and cold front/warm front vicinity. Multiple convective scenarios are possible late this afternoon through tonight. For one, as the air mass recovers from the early day storms, widely scattered surface-based thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon near the eastward-advancing cold front within the relatively narrow warm sector from far eastern North Dakota into northern/western Minnesota. Any storms that do develop will likely organize into supercells given strong wind profiles and the large buoyancy. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially with storms in proximity to the warm front. Additionally, on the southern fringe of the early scattered early day convection (and related cloud cover) from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota, storms may form near an effective triple point/differential heating reinforced warm front. Such initial development could occur across south-central/southeast Minnesota, with robust instability/seasonally strong shear potentially supportive of an initial mode of intense supercells, with subsequent upscale growth in an MCS with heightened damaging wind potential. Additional mostly elevated storms could form tonight from eastern Minnesota into northern/central Wisconsin, on the immediate cool side of the surface baroclinic gradient as a nocturnally increasingly low-level jet heightens isentropic ascent. These storms may also pose a large hail and damaging wind risk through the overnight. An upgrade to Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) may be warranted pending morning observational/guidance trends, potentially including a corridor across south-central/southern Minnesota and west/southwest Wisconsin, where a semi-focused swath of potentially significant damaging winds appears plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 Extreme instability building. Might need a moderate risk??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 24 Author Share Posted June 24 (edited) 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Extreme instability building. Might need a moderate risk??? Now approaching 8000 surface cape 🧐 Edited June 24 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25 Author Share Posted June 25 Going to be very interesting to see how tonight and tomorrow play out. Big time wind potential pending how things develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 (edited) anybody want to see some crazy numbers? I wonder what the MPX sounding will look like tonight Edited June 25 by Chinook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25 Author Share Posted June 25 14 minutes ago, Chinook said: anybody want to see some crazy numbers? I wonder what the MPX sounding will look like tonight That's beyond crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25 Author Share Posted June 25 Storms in southern Wisconsin look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 0z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25 Author Share Posted June 25 7 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 0z HRRR Really have to take these hi res models with a grain of salt. Hrrr is not even handling the current storms in southern Wisconsin correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 (edited) Looks like an MCS type of week. Edited June 25 by junior 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Great Plains and Midwest late this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two may are possible. ...Central Plains and Midwest... A complex and highly uncertain forecast scenario is likely to evolve today, as the remnants of one or more convective clusters interacts with a broadly moist and unstable air mass over the Midwest and central Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across parts of the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Near the eastern extent of the buoyancy plume reintensification of the eastern most convection/remnants thereof appears unlikely through the morning across the mid to upper OH Valley. Farther west across IL and IN, any ongoing storms or remnant outflow, should continue south and may reintensify/reinvigorate over the mid MS Valley by mid morning. While mid-level flow decreases with southern extent, moderate buoyancy may sustain a risk for damaging gusts with a loosely organized cluster/MCS, potentially as far south as the lower OH/Mid MS Valley this evening. A greater focus for severe convection appears likely to evolve along the slow-moving synoptic cold front drifting south across the central Plains. Strong heating along the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough will allow for isolated storm development this afternoon. Model soundings show enhanced mid and upper-level shear profiles, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. Supercells may evolve with an initial risk for large hail, given MLCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg and the discrete mode. A brief tornado or two may also be possible with enhanced vertical voritcity and low-level shear near the front. With time, mostly front-parallel flow will favor upscale growth into clusters and potentially an MCS over eastern NE and IA. With plentiful MLCAPE (2000-3000 J/Kg) in place over the region, damaging winds will remain possible as storms track east/southeast into the eastern central Plains and the mid MS Valley. The exact eastern/southern extent of any severe risk remains quite uncertain, given the tendency for storms to outrun the stronger upper-level support. Still, a few CAM members suggest a coherent line of storms will continue overnight reaching southern MO/IL and eastern KS before the start of the Day2 period. ...KS OK and the TX Panhandle... On the northern fringes of the subtropical ridge over the southern third of the CONUS, robust diurnal heating should support very hot daytime temperatures along and east of dryline from west-central KS, into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. As the western portion of the ridge intensifies, flow aloft should gradually veer to northwesterly as a weak mid-level perturbation traverses the periphery of the ridge and moves out of the central Rockies. Weak ascent should overlap with near-convective surface temps in the low 100s F during the later afternoon, supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along and east of the dryline. Moderate buoyancy within the well-mixed but moist surface air mass, along with enhanced mid and upper-level flow, will favor a mixed mode of high-based multicell clusters and perhaps transient supercells capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. The longevity of these storms is somewhat questionable, given the tendency for weakening upper-level support and warming mid-level temperature to the south, but at least an isolated severe risk may persist into parts of central OK/KS into the early evening. ...Dakotas and western MN... Behind the main synoptic front, daytime heating over residual boundary-layer moisture should support the development of moderate buoyancy ahead of a second weaker cold front moving out of southern Canada. A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves southeast into the Plains. Modest forcing for ascent coupled with weak low-level warm advection may support isolated storm development late in the afternoon, eventually moving into the eastern Dakotas and western MN by early evening. Relatively long and straight hodographs suggest the potential for a few elevated supercells with a risk for isolated large hail. ..Lyons/Barnes.. 06/25/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 ILN Quote .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Tranquil conditions will continue locally through daybreak, although they won`t last too much long, unfortunately. As the sfc high shifts to the E of the OH Vly through the morning, abrupt moisture return will begin to nose back into the area from the W into the afternoon hours. This will occur following the S/W ejecting E through the Great Lakes region through daybreak, which has prompted the development of a stout and increasingly-well organized MCS now across WI, which will track to the ESE into MI and far nrn IL/IN/OH through mid morning. As this occurs, we may see a few WAA-induced WAA develop along a N-S oriented axis across EC IN and WC OH, primarily between about 13z-17z, but this should be of little consequence to the convective evolution through the rest of the day. The forecast later into the daytime becomes incredibly complex, and will be largely dictated by convective evolution throughout the time period. As the primary S/W pulls to the NE of the OH Vly late morning into early evening, taking with it the better forcing, the remnant outflow/boundary stretching back to the W should serve as a focus for renewed convective development by early afternoon across nrn IL/IN/OH. This will occur as activity attempts to redevelop closer to the pool of better moisture/instby collecting/advecting across IL/IN and far wrn OH. Confidence continues to increase in the potential for redevelopment, to a certain extent, of a E-W oriented axis of TSRA along the stale MCS boundary. This reason for this is partially because of the delayed timing (compared to previous fcsts), which will allow /just enough/ time for a surge of higher theta-e air (better LL moisture content) to nose into areas near/W of I-75 into early afternoon. The latest guidance suggests that a very narrow ribbon of SB-instby will develop immediately ahead of the southward-progressing outflow-driven storm activity into mid-afternoon, supporting locally gusty to damaging winds with the strongest cores. This will especially be the case for areas near/W of I-75 and especially near/W of I-71 with the better instby to work with than for locales in NE KY or the lower Scioto Valley. The better SB instby should pinch off with eastward extent. The rapid jump in temps/humidity/SB instby early/mid afternoon in the wrn third of the ILN FA may be enough to prompt and maintain a more concerning severe threat into the local area than was originally expected. At this juncture, it is likely that additional clusters or complexes of storms will develop within the trailing MCS boundary, spreading to the SSE through the local area between about 17z-23z (N-S). Given the robust destabilization efforts underway near/W of I-75/I-71 prior to storm arrival, it is certainly worth mentioning the potential for widespread gusty to locally damaging winds this afternoon into early evening. A high DCAPE environment amidst favorable LL/deep-layer thermodynamic fields and potential for aggressive cold-pool driven processes suggests that these storms could be locally intense and persist for quite a long time, even in the absence of any synoptic-based forcing or source for lift. Feel that the SPC slight risk on the SWODY1 in our west is well- warranted and needed. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The fcst for this evening through Wednesday following the expectation for daytime convection becomes even muddier, unfortunately. It seems plausible, given the latest data, that there will be a several hour lull in pcpn locally following the afternoon/early evening storms. This lull should stretch past midnight into the middle of the night before additional loosely- organized activity moves back in from the W by/after 06z-09z. The storms tonight are likely to be much more disorganized and not pose such a potential for strong/severe activity. However, any of this activity will bring with it the potential for some lightning and very heavy downpours/localized ponding of water. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should be on the increase toward daybreak and beyond, but there are quite a few uncertainties in how things will unfold on Wednesday in terms of a hazardous-weather perspective. There is likely to be better forcing moving E through the region Wednesday morning through the daytime, potentially too much so. In fact, in an uncapped environment, the focus for any organized storms appears rather nebulous (except along the SE- moving front very late in the day), potentially leading to a somewhat "grungy" environment characterized by poor LL (and midlevel) lapse rates. This would suggest that storms/updrafts may struggle to become particularly intense, with much more in the way of widespread storms, with only a few becoming strong to severe briefly. There will be slightly better LL and deep- layer flow fields to work with Wednesday, but the poor deep- layer lapse rates and slightly less unstable environment cast some doubt onto the coverage of /severe/ storms. Rainfall through the period will be highly-variable, both in time and space, but would expect that some spots will pick up 1-2 inches between now and Wednesday evening, especially with the anomalously-high PWATs expected region-wide for the daytime Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 (edited) Nice bowing segment coming down my way. It was super intense coming off the lake but is slowly weakening. I still expect maybe a good rumble of thunder and some gusty winds though. Under a severe thunderstorm watch until noon. Muggy and already 76 degrees with a DP of 65. Definitely feels like rain is coming Edited June 25 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted June 25 Admin Share Posted June 25 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: ILN Strongly worded.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 NW OH is out of the slight but more of SW OH is in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 (edited) Getting some scattered development here as the OFB races south. Good downpour and some thunder here. Edited June 25 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 26 Meteorologist Share Posted June 26 Severe storm about to impact NWS Amarillo. Will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 26 Meteorologist Share Posted June 26 4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Severe storm about to impact NWS Amarillo. Will be interesting to see what happens. The mesonet at Amarillo 9NNE just recorded a 79 mph wind gust 😳 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 26 Meteorologist Share Posted June 26 10 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: The mesonet at Amarillo 9NNE just recorded a 79 mph wind gust 😳 NWS Amarillo gusted to 78 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now