Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Iceresistance]

11 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I have this internal alarm in my head. Whenever it gets cold enough that I turn the furnace on at night, I come lurk in the long range forecast thread to read all the juicy gossip about four letter words starting with s. 😁

Snow

[Grace]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Snow

No...I think she means scam. There's a lot of them ya know. 😏 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Grace

[so_whats_happening]

Oh man Euro spitting out early season -NAO pattern. Some interesting times may be ahead.

[BuckeyeGal]

From BamWX (taken with a grain of salt, but still intriguing).

[Iceresistance]

25 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

From BamWX (taken with a grain of salt, but still intriguing).

The very warm waters may help fuel Bomb Cyclones this winter

[MesoscaleBanding]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The very warm waters may help fuel Bomb Cyclones this winter

 

[Indygirl]

On 9/26/2022 at 1:10 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

I agree but we are long overdue for a good December. Sooner are later the law of averages will win out 

Yeah, and since I’m woefully behind with our winter preparations here at my home, you can BET on a snowy December! 

[MaineJay]

I keep my thermostats at about 62° in the winter. Wondering what other folks set theirs at. My kids don't complain about it, in fact, my 5 1/2 year old generally says she's hot.  I'll even drop it to 60° at night because I prefer sleeping with the cooler air.   

[Ohiobuckeye45]

39 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I keep my thermostats at about 62° in the winter. Wondering what other folks set theirs at. My kids don't complain about it, in fact, my 5 1/2 year old generally says she's hot.  I'll even drop it to 60° at night because I prefer sleeping with the cooler air.   

I just got comfortable with dropping down to 65 at night and 68 during the day. We just got a nest thermostat so learning some ways to schedule. During the winter we have an external boiler so it's really at our discretion how warm to set it because the wood usage stays relatively similar, usually 68-70

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I keep my thermostats at about 62° in the winter. Wondering what other folks set theirs at. My kids don't complain about it, in fact, my 5 1/2 year old generally says she's hot.  I'll even drop it to 60° at night because I prefer sleeping with the cooler air.   

Yea it really is different up there in Canada. I have been putting mine around 67/68. The person I lived with wanted the temps around 72 I said to him you will have to pay the heating bill if you want it that high needless to say the temps were lowered. Might try to drop it to 65/66 region and try it out this winter. New windows have made a world of difference, next on the list is changing out the doors (front and back) which I believe are from the 1940's lol

Luckily have storm doors on both so that helps but you get near them and can still feel the wind coming through.

Edited October 14, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[1816]

9 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I keep my thermostats at about 62° in the winter. Wondering what other folks set theirs at. My kids don't complain about it, in fact, my 5 1/2 year old generally says she's hot.  I'll even drop it to 60° at night because I prefer sleeping with the cooler air.   

 

8 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I just got comfortable with dropping down to 65 at night and 68 during the day. We just got a nest thermostat so learning some ways to schedule. During the winter we have an external boiler so it's really at our discretion how warm to set it because the wood usage stays relatively similar, usually 68-70

 

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea it really is different up there in Canada. I have been putting mine around 67/68. The person I lived with wanted the temps around 72 I said to him you will have to pay the heating bill if you want it that high needless to say the temps were lowered. Might try to drop it to 65/66 region and try it out this winter. New windows have made a world of difference, next on the list is changing out the doors (front and back) which I believe are from the 1940's lol

Luckily have storm doors on both so that helps but you get near them and can still feel the wind coming through.

Maine Jay being a constructor of fine homes probably has an airtight hermetically sealed house. So no cold air coming in means less need for heat? As someone living in the equivalent of a drafty medieval castle, anything below 69 and you need to start some layers. 

[MaineJay]

2 hours ago, 1816 said:

 

 

Maine Jay being a constructor of fine homes probably has an airtight hermetically sealed house. So no cold air coming in means less need for heat? As someone living in the equivalent of a drafty medieval castle, anything below 69 and you need to start some layers. 

Definitely not drafty. I'm also fortunate that my wife prefers it cooler too. With 2 German shepherds weaseling their way into the bed, keeping cool comes at a premium.

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Getting to be that time of year when fantasy storms start showing up😁 

[Grace]

There are a lot of signs that there could be a front-loaded winter for a change.

#1 Fall folage is way ahead of schedule here in Kentucky. A lot of that is due to dryness but nonetheless. 

#2 Our first freeze is going to be ahead of schedule. Could have multiple freezes over the next couple of weeks.

#3 BSR gives some hints of early season snows possibly in upper Midwest getting off to a possible quick start. 0z GFS hints at this as well. Things look to get more active finally. If that occurs air masses will be colder instead of moderating late NOV & early DEC. 

#4 My gut thinks so. I have not had this feel of a front-loaded winter in a while. 

Hopefully it's not too front-loaded. Early NOV could produce OV snows in a early cold shot & then moderate. Gut is cold late NOV & early DEC for the heartland. 

FYI, this is only conjecture...not much science in my thoughts. 

Edited October 15, 2022 by Grace

[MaineJay]

On 10/14/2022 at 2:02 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said:

 

The optimism award goes to...

***Drum roll***

Love his enthusiasm, but he always seems to make a case that Siberian snow is advancing, then again, it's Siberia.

 

[1816]

9 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

The optimism award goes to...

***Drum roll***

Love his enthusiasm, but he always seems to make a case that Siberian snow is advancing, then again, it's Siberia.

 

Yeah right? It's Siberia. It's supposed to have snow on it for most of the year. Wtf people. 

[Hassaywx1223]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

The optimism award goes to...

***Drum roll***

Love his enthusiasm, but he always seems to make a case that Siberian snow is advancing, then again, it's Siberia.

 

I never understood this it’s suppose to have snow like 9 months a year it’s the arctic 😂

[Grace]

 

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

I don't trust him very well, he overhypes stuff. 

[Grace]

9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I don't trust him very well, he overhypes stuff. 

 

Lol, I'm with ya. I was kind of entertained & thought I'd share. Some of his info is interesting & I've read from others like on water vapor from the volcano. But a couple of things he said were inaccurate...and of course over-sensationalized. 

 

Does anyone know anything about him?

 

 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Grace

[Grace]

JMA updated...models kind of looking stellar for NOV & then looking DJF kind of looks like a blend of 2020-21 & 2021-22.

NOV

 

DEC

 

JAN

 

DJF

 

Kind of a blend of 2020-21, 2021-22 with mean trough a little further west.

 

Now the JMA mean pattern is similar to the upcoming pattern & it could be the monthly & seasonal model output is heavily influenced by that. It happens. Or it could be the upcoming pattern is very much indicative of the winter mean pattern. 

Personally I still think it's too early to know. I lean towards some of NOV & maybe early DEC could be colder pattern & then who knows after that. 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Grace

[Iceresistance]

36 minutes ago, Grace said:

JMA updated...models kind of looking stellar for NOV & then looking DJF kind of looks like a blend of 2020-21 & 2021-22.

NOV

 

DEC

 

JAN

 

DJF

 

Kind of a blend of 2020-21, 2021-22 with mean trough a little further west.

 

Now the JMA mean pattern is similar to the upcoming pattern & it could be the monthly & seasonal model output is heavily influenced by that. It happens. Or it could be the upcoming pattern is very much indicative of the winter mean pattern. 

Personally I still think it's too early to know. I lean towards some of NOV & maybe early DEC could be colder pattern & then who knows after that. 

Oh boy, these two winters you mentioned we're absolutely INSANE for my area! Especially in February!

[Penn State]

A theme that I have noticed is widespread speculation of a front-loaded winter season. That may be playing out right now. Evaluating some of the data (model forecasts, teleconnections, etc.), I think there's a signal to start the month of November. In terms of teleconnections, all are unfavorably forecasted at the end of October; however, all appear to be trending in the right direction to lead off November (-NAO, -AO, +PNA). The MJO is active and rounding into phases 7 and 8, though it does appear to meander for a bit. According to the BSR, there's a storm signal centered on November 2nd. Looking at the BSR map at the 500mb level, there's a clear trough located over the Eastern U.S., and at the surface level, the low tracks right over the Delmarva. On the GFS, from hours 324 to 384.. talk about long-range lol.. there's a trough entering the Western U.S. that loosely mirrors what is seen on the BSR depiction. Of course, this is all speculation.. 2 weeks out.. so, grain of salt here, but fun to consider the possibilities. For all resources, check-out the spoiler! 

Spoiler

NAO Forecast (October)

AO Forecast (October)

PNA Forecast (October) 

MJO Forecast 

BSR (500mb)

BSR (Surface)

GFS 500mb (Hours 324-384)

 

[1816]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

A theme that I have noticed is widespread speculation of a front-loaded winter season. That may be playing out right now. Evaluating some of the data (model forecasts, teleconnections, etc.), I think there's a signal to start the month of November. In terms of teleconnections, all are unfavorably forecasted at the end of October; however, all appear to be trending in the right direction to lead off November (-NAO, -AO, +PNA). The MJO is active and rounding into phases 7 and 8, though it does appear to meander for a bit. According to the BSR, there's a storm signal centered on November 2nd. Looking at the BSR map at the 500mb level, there's a clear trough located over the Eastern U.S., and at the surface level, the low tracks right over the Delmarva. On the GFS, from hours 324 to 384.. talk about long-range lol.. there's a trough entering the Western U.S. that loosely mirrors what is seen on the BSR depiction. Of course, this is all speculation.. 2 weeks out.. so, grain of salt here, but fun to consider the possibilities. For all resources, check-out the spoiler! 

  Hide contents

NAO Forecast (October)

AO Forecast (October)

PNA Forecast (October) 

MJO Forecast 

BSR (500mb)

BSR (Surface)

GFS 500mb (Hours 324-384)

 

Let me bust this out again