Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

All the NMME page models updated and they all just about say Winter will be in Western Canada and Alaska. Pacific North North West gets a little too.

 So far all the model updates this month so far are not very good if you like Winter except for the CanSips, which is usually warm. 

 

 And right after I made that post I noticed the JMA has given its 1st Dec- Feb forecast this year. It has some similarities to 2010-11, although not exact.  A lot of Greenland and  North Atlantic blocking. Now remember that's a 3 month mean so that's a pretty impressive signal for blocking.

You cannot look at the individual months on the DJF forecast but on the JMA 3 month forecast which covers OCT/NOV/DEC, you can look. So we can at least look at DEC & it looks pretty good:

 

With DEC looking decent I'm guessing the DJF forecast represents a good winter Dec/Jan & then a bad FEB. Its an educated guess, but guess nonetheless.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Grace

[1816]

8 hours ago, Grace said:

 

 And right after I made that post I noticed the JMA has given its 1st Dec- Feb forecast this year. It has some similarities to 2010-11, although not exact.  A lot of Greenland and  North Atlantic blocking. Now remember that's a 3 month mean so that's a pretty impressive signal for blocking.

You cannot look at the individual months on the DJF forecast but on the JMA 3 month forecast which covers OCT/NOV/DEC, you can look. So we can at least look at DEC & it looks pretty good:

 

With DEC looking decent I'm guessing the DJF forecast represents a good winter Dec/Jan & then a bad FEB. Its an educated guess, but guess nonetheless.

I'm guessing the nao is gonna be favorable for a change.  Question will be will the atmosphere give the ingredients needed to take advantage. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Last winter was painful for me here in Indy. Was in the snow hole all winter long😒

[Grace]

The strat PV begins its appearance this month on latest guidance. Here's a 10mb loop of 12z GFS:

[Iceresistance]

BenNollWeather is showing possibly a La Nina Winter that acts like an El Nino (Very warm Subtropical SSTs), except it's a La Nina in many areas.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

On 9/9/2022 at 5:12 PM, Grace said:

The strat PV begins its appearance this month on latest guidance. Here's a 10mb loop of 12z GFS:

Forgot to ask earlier, but is the Polar Vortex is forming earlier than normal this year?

[Grace]

10 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Forgot to ask earlier, but is the Polar Vortex is forming earlier than normal this year?

 

It's on time but that specific loop on that specific run had it intensifying very fast & would've been ahead of schedule but other model runs since not showing it intensifying as fast. 

[StretchCT]

Looking like we are headed into a triple nina this season. Makes life easier to limit your analog to one other period, a  triple Nina analog 2000-2001 season.  Got really excited.  Terribly cold Dec, average Jan and Feb, cold Mar.  50% more snow than average for me. Finally break these boring winters. 

 

Spoiler

Then I looked at the summer/fall leading of 2000.  Period of July-Sept was much cooler than normal.  Precip was above average in July, near average Aug and Sep. Nearly the opposite of what has been happening.

Spoiler

Looking at tropics, we didn't get our A storm until August.  Our E Storm was similar to Earls timing. We then popped Florence and Gordon by the 14th of Sept.  SST anom comparison.  Geez almost the entire northern Pac is above normal. Atlantic warmer too.  Should note that both sites have the same methodology using 85-93 (minus 91/92). 

Quickly looked at AO.  No real correlation there. Overall pattern vaguely similar to a la nina, but monthly doesn't stack up. 

Spoiler

2000 had just under normal sea ice extent.  At some point it makes no sense to go back and look at these.  

Looking at NAO patterns, they don't really line up either, but it is interesting to note that when it flipped neg in 2000, it stayed neg. Similar to how it flipped for almost all of 2021.  

PNA crashed bigly in 2000, only to come back strong at the right time in Dec-Mar.  Probably why the analogs look the way they do. The late 1997-mid 2000 run of positive PNA is pretty impressive.  Almost as good as the mid 2014-mid 2017 run. Since 2018, we've seen a pretty decent cycle back and forth with the PNA.  I'd expect that to continue.  

PDO in 2000 was pretty negative. This year is more negative. 

Spoiler

Looking at QBO... heck the SOI too.

Spoiler

Sadly, this graph cuts off at 2022 and it looks favorable for a easterly QBO, but the last several months has negated that hope.  Plus last year's easterly didn't produce colder temps either.  Nor did 20-21's westerly, except for TX.

 

So no real comparison between 2000-2001 and the current state of being.  To be honest, I probably shouldn't have spent the last hour digging all this stuff up and just rode the train of the last few years.  It's just so ugly for the east coast snow wise.  Though I'll take the warmer temps from a heating bill perspective.

Edited September 13, 2022 by StretchCT

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[1816]

I saw this image on fox news and I would like to know what if the person who drew it is a time traveler from 1752 or if they were just on a lot of drugs

[Grace]

Something of interest. This is totally a FYI post with no intended predictions...simply interesting. Sept 1939 had a really big heatwave, worse than whats coming.

 

Here's the anomaly for that month:

Winter temps just the opposite. Coldest where the heat was.

More interesting, it was a 3rd year La Nina, but had a burst in 3.4 in NOV to make it a trending +ENSO. It was -ENSO all fall until NOV. Well ironically Jamstec is still predicting warmth to burst in 3.4 for winter.

 

It's the only model showing this...I just though it was interesting. Here is the winter 500mb:

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Grace

[MesoscaleBanding]

6 hours ago, 1816 said:

I saw this image on fox news and I would like to know what if the person who drew it is a time traveler from 1752 or if they were just on a lot of drugs

Since when does SW IN/S IL see an average first snowfall before northern Ohio?!? 

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, 1816 said:

I saw this image on fox news and I would like to know what if the person who drew it is a time traveler from 1752 or if they were just on a lot of drugs

More like, "Weighted average in the past 20 years"

[StormfanaticInd]

I got a feeling about this winter. It could be a notable one. 

[1816]

22 hours ago, Grace said:

Something of interest. This is totally a FYI post with no intended predictions...simply interesting. Sept 1939 had a really big heatwave, worse than whats coming.

 

Here's the anomaly for that month:

Winter temps just the opposite. Coldest where the heat was.

More interesting, it was a 3rd year La Nina, but had a burst in 3.4 in NOV to make it a trending +ENSO. It was -ENSO all fall until NOV. Well ironically Jamstec is still predicting warmth to burst in 3.4 for winter.

 

It's the only model showing this...I just though it was interesting. Here is the winter 500mb:

 

And after checking historical records for my area that winter, I'll happily accept a repeat. 

[so_whats_happening]

On 9/13/2022 at 11:20 AM, StretchCT said:

Looking like we are headed into a triple nina this season. Makes life easier to limit your analog to one other period, a  triple Nina analog 2000-2001 season.  Got really excited.  Terribly cold Dec, average Jan and Feb, cold Mar.  50% more snow than average for me. Finally break these boring winters. 

 

  Hide contents

Then I looked at the summer/fall leading of 2000.  Period of July-Sept was much cooler than normal.  Precip was above average in July, near average Aug and Sep. Nearly the opposite of what has been happening.

  Hide contents

Looking at tropics, we didn't get our A storm until August.  Our E Storm was similar to Earls timing. We then popped Florence and Gordon by the 14th of Sept.  SST anom comparison.  Geez almost the entire northern Pac is above normal. Atlantic warmer too.  Should note that both sites have the same methodology using 85-93 (minus 91/92). 

Quickly looked at AO.  No real correlation there. Overall pattern vaguely similar to a la nina, but monthly doesn't stack up. 

  Reveal hidden contents

2000 had just under normal sea ice extent.  At some point it makes no sense to go back and look at these.  

Looking at NAO patterns, they don't really line up either, but it is interesting to note that when it flipped neg in 2000, it stayed neg. Similar to how it flipped for almost all of 2021.  

PNA crashed bigly in 2000, only to come back strong at the right time in Dec-Mar.  Probably why the analogs look the way they do. The late 1997-mid 2000 run of positive PNA is pretty impressive.  Almost as good as the mid 2014-mid 2017 run. Since 2018, we've seen a pretty decent cycle back and forth with the PNA.  I'd expect that to continue.  

PDO in 2000 was pretty negative. This year is more negative. 

  Hide contents

Looking at QBO... heck the SOI too.

  Hide contents

Sadly, this graph cuts off at 2022 and it looks favorable for a easterly QBO, but the last several months has negated that hope.  Plus last year's easterly didn't produce colder temps either.  Nor did 20-21's westerly, except for TX.

 

So no real comparison between 2000-2001 and the current state of being.  To be honest, I probably shouldn't have spent the last hour digging all this stuff up and just rode the train of the last few years.  It's just so ugly for the east coast snow wise.  Though I'll take the warmer temps from a heating bill perspective.

Lol nice the only thing I can think of is that ridges are bit more ridgy now? Honestly unless we get constant troughing over the next month or so those waters off the coast are going to continue to play a big role in keeping baroclinicity too far west. One can only hope we get some thing popping off the coast from time to time this winter! 

On 9/15/2022 at 9:49 AM, Grace said:

Something of interest. This is totally a FYI post with no intended predictions...simply interesting. Sept 1939 had a really big heatwave, worse than whats coming.

 

Here's the anomaly for that month:

Winter temps just the opposite. Coldest where the heat was.

More interesting, it was a 3rd year La Nina, but had a burst in 3.4 in NOV to make it a trending +ENSO. It was -ENSO all fall until NOV. Well ironically Jamstec is still predicting warmth to burst in 3.4 for winter.

 

It's the only model showing this...I just though it was interesting. Here is the winter 500mb:

 

Huh nice catch. Cant find a site that goes back that far for data mine goes to 1948 lol

[Grace]

 

[1816]

9 hours ago, Grace said:

 

I dunno, looks like a typical Nina map. I suspect there are enough factors going on this year to push the results in some kind of non typical direction, whatever that may be. 

[Grace]

Average of last 4 recent runs of CFS for DEC:

[Grace]

 

[Grace]

BTW, where is everyone at? Did they go back to the other forum or what?

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

BTW, where is everyone at? Did they go back to the other forum or what?

No one has noticed it yet other than you. We're also likely preparing for a nasty winter.

[1816]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

BTW, where is everyone at? Did they go back to the other forum or what?

 

52 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

No one has noticed it yet other than you. We're also likely preparing for a nasty winter.

I just thought everyone was still dormant. But going by the uptick activity elsewhere I guess you're right. I don't visit disco anymore but I still lurk American and 33.  

[MesoscaleBanding]

On 9/20/2022 at 5:35 PM, Grace said:

BTW, where is everyone at? Did they go back to the other forum or what?

Not much happening at WxDisco - most members don't get active until our first winter weather activity. Tropics have been fairly boring as well.

[Grace]