Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[so_whats_happening]

On 8/18/2022 at 10:35 AM, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I wonder when "median" gets updated....its been 12 years.

I really wish they would show each median range they had previously used and future. Would really show how things were changing and what decades really impacted more than others. I want to say maybe in the next year or two they will switch it up, but that is still a pretty good rang of years to go off of im sure the next will be rather low because of the 2010s.

On 8/19/2022 at 12:12 PM, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

CPC outlook

This looks dreamy for the OV

Yea I like this look for the winter. Gotta wait and see how much we can churn up the waters off the east coast. We managed to get them a little cooler awhile back (beginning of summer with the upper lows) but have since gone right back into the above normal state. One wild card may be the desert SW they may not receive a lot of rain with a La Nina but are certainly doing decent this summer so far. See how long it lasts for them. Cali Im sure would love a wild winter at least snow fall wise.

Edited August 20, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[1816]

On 8/19/2022 at 12:12 PM, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

CPC outlook

This looks dreamy for the OV

As an east of the apps dweller this has the hallmark of a Nina typical brick wall by the mountains where all the moisture gets wrung out in WV and ohio and west penn and tenn. But a Nina should also be cooler than normal and they got us at above. We will see how close they get with it. I don't have a lot of confidence in anything anymore in this new era where up is down and left is right. 

[MaineJay]

Pretty good discussion about the upcoming winter here.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2022-2023-season-first-look-united-states-europe-fa/

I'll post the two images that would be most important to folks.

[Grace]

 

[Grace]

Our friend Raindance tweeted this:

So, saw this hurricane stat & another 1984 connection. May not mean anything but worth noting.

[Grace]

Also interesting from a Met on American forums Arctic Sea Ice page:

So this year is in company with 3 cold winters. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Pdo is looking pretty good so far

[junior]

Another La Nina eh. Bring it on.

Kind of hoping its a back loaded winter so my house can be started without problem late fall.

Edited September 1, 2022 by junior

[Grace]

This winter is going to be cold since CanSips looks decent. It seems to always show blowtorch winters this far out. So buckle up! 😆 

DEC

JAN

FEB

 

DJF

Edited September 1, 2022 by Grace

[Hassaywx1223]

I was watching a video by a very respected scientist last night saying that the volcano that erupted in January is going to extremely effect the weather and polar vortex this winter I guess since the winter in the southern hemisphere has ran 1.5 degrees cooler on average and that can be expected in the northern hemisphere too he also said it has had some kind of effect on hurricane season and would expect the same thing in the southern pacific that he’s seeing in the northern Atlantic as documented before big eruptions have effected weather like this for a few years in recorded history before 

[Grace]

11 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

I was watching a video by a very respected scientist last night saying that the volcano that erupted in January is going to extremely effect the weather and polar vortex this winter I guess since the winter in the southern hemisphere has ran 1.5 degrees cooler on average and that can be expected in the northern hemisphere too he also said it has had some kind of effect on hurricane season and would expect the same thing in the southern pacific that he’s seeing in the northern Atlantic as documented before big eruptions have effected weather like this for a few years in recorded history before 

 

If I'm not mistaken large volcanic activity cools the stratosphere & makes SSW's less likely. 

However, I will say Simon Lee had immediately recently this affected the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere more so.

 

 

[StretchCT]

Liking the triple Nina/2001 analog for my backyard.

January  had -0.8 to normal temp with 12" snow

Feb had -.0.1 to normal temp with 23" snow

Mar had -2.7 to normal temp with 29" snow. Over 7" of precip in March. 

[MaineJay]

2 hours ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

I was watching a video by a very respected scientist last night saying that the volcano that erupted in January is going to extremely effect the weather and polar vortex this winter I guess since the winter in the southern hemisphere has ran 1.5 degrees cooler on average and that can be expected in the northern hemisphere too he also said it has had some kind of effect on hurricane season and would expect the same thing in the southern pacific that he’s seeing in the northern Atlantic as documented before big eruptions have effected weather like this for a few years in recorded history before 

 

1 hour ago, Grace said:

 

If I'm not mistaken large volcanic activity cools the stratosphere & makes SSW's less likely. 

However, I will say Simon Lee had immediately recently this affected the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere more so.

 

 

Good write up here about what's going on, and some possibilities.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

[1816]

I'm starting to think this is a true wildcard winter coming up. Like really all bets are off. Larry Cosgrove sounds pretty confident eastern half of conus sees some cold and snow. This article mj just posted somehow makes it seem the eruption could lead to warming in the stratosphere. On top of a triple dip Nina including one Nina that had a identity crisis. Really warm temps out west including sst off the nw coast. I'm doubling down for this year as officially 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

[so_whats_happening]

15 hours ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

I was watching a video by a very respected scientist last night saying that the volcano that erupted in January is going to extremely effect the weather and polar vortex this winter I guess since the winter in the southern hemisphere has ran 1.5 degrees cooler on average and that can be expected in the northern hemisphere too he also said it has had some kind of effect on hurricane season and would expect the same thing in the southern pacific that he’s seeing in the northern Atlantic as documented before big eruptions have effected weather like this for a few years in recorded history before 

It is very interesting to see. You have warmer stratospheric temps near the tropics and cooler across much of the southern hemisphere right now. Im kind of surprised to see a cooling situation take place with not only an active sun but also water vapor being put into the stratopshere pretty plentiful. My take would have been if you release a large amount of water vapor it would actually tend to warm the stratosphere or help it be warmer which than would lead to cooling in the tropospheric portion of the atmosphere. Im not so sure anymore as the southern hemisphere as a whole has been cooler this year overall. La Nina is also still present and this usually does tend to 'cool' the Earth and southern hemisphere a bit.

 

The thing about this is it was a southern hemisphere eruption not within the tropics so it doesn't as easily influence our weather in the northern hemisphere. Cross hemisphere activity usually takes many many years to take place. I would be curious to know if water vapor would react differently than what we normally are use to which is the large SO2 releases that come from large eruptions. 

14 hours ago, Grace said:

 

If I'm not mistaken large volcanic activity cools the stratosphere & makes SSW's less likely. 

However, I will say Simon Lee had immediately recently this affected the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere more so.

 

 

[Grace]

19 hours ago, MaineJay said:

 

Good write up here about what's going on, and some possibilities.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

 

Appreciate you sharing that! I'm intrigued to see how it may or may not shake out.

[MaineJay]

22 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Appreciate you sharing that! I'm intrigued to see how it may or may not shake out.

    That site often has really good discussion about the variables. They don't really take concrete positions on where they think things will go, but go pretty in depth about the possibilities and probabilities.

   We've had 2 consecutive winters low on snowfall up here, though I believe la Nina *usually* produces snowy winters, especially for the mountains. So just going by law of averages, I'm expecting it to be snowy up here. The caveat being, I'm getting a new snowblower, so superstition says that'll counteract everything. 

 

Oops nothing in the spoiler, just clicked it by accident and can't remove it. 🙃

Spoiler

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 9/2/2022 at 7:55 AM, MaineJay said:

    That site often has really good discussion about the variables. They don't really take concrete positions on where they think things will go, but go pretty in depth about the possibilities and probabilities.

   We've had 2 consecutive winters low on snowfall up here, though I believe la Nina *usually* produces snowy winters, especially for the mountains. So just going by law of averages, I'm expecting it to be snowy up here. The caveat being, I'm getting a new snowblower, so superstition says that'll counteract everything. 

 

Oops nothing in the spoiler, just clicked it by accident and can't remove it. 🙃

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Yea going by law of averages I would say my area and south is due for a Miller A. Last one that stuck out was 2016, I think we could also include march of 2018, I believe it was (it was on my bday that much I know and got about 18inches of snow, year is iffy).

[Hiramite]

FWIW, the last two winters/Ninas.

"Past performance does not guarantee future results".

2020-2021

 

2021-2022

Edited September 4, 2022 by Hiramite

[MesoscaleBanding]

3 hours ago, Hiramite said:

FWIW, the last two winters/Ninas.

"Past performance does not guarantee future results".

2020-2021

 

2021-2022

Wow- opposite ends of the spectrum for North Dakota the past 2 winters...

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Wow- opposite ends of the spectrum for North Dakota the past 2 winters...

You can see the Eastern Nebraska snow hole

[Grace]

The experts have spoken. I give you The Old Farmers Almanac: 😆 

Here's to compare with the Farmers Almanac:

 

[1816]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

The experts have spoken. I give you The Old Farmers Almanac: 😆 

Here's to compare with the Farmers Almanac:

 

Look! I got an early look at next year's forecast. 

[bunnyohare1]

Here is an interesting weather map.  lol

[Grace]

All the NMME page models updated and they all just about say Winter will be in Western Canada and Alaska. Pacific North North West gets a little too.

 So far all the model updates this month so far are not very good if you like Winter except for the CanSips, which is usually warm.