February 21-24, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[SNOWBOB11]

Just need a little more south from the GFS/CMC. Euro would be great for me. It’s a really nice looking storm would be good if I could get some snow out of it.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[MidwestWX]

The synoptic set up for this system is impressive. A potent jet diving down the west coast, and the long-duration west/east frontal boundary overhead should set the stage for some impressive precipitation & snow potential somewhere. There is also the potential for an significant ICE storm across the eastern cornbelt region into southern MI. It'll be a long few days ahead, but time is ticking before we hoist watches across the region and I suspect that will be sooner than later due to the significant impacts possible with this system(s).

[SNOWBOB11]

Edited February 18, 2023 by SNOWBOB11

[SNOWBOB11]

[BoroBuckeye]

Great for the western snow pack!

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, MidwestWX said:

The synoptic set up for this system is impressive. A potent jet diving down the west coast, and the long-duration west/east frontal boundary overhead should set the stage for some impressive precipitation & snow potential somewhere. There is also the potential for an significant ICE storm across the eastern cornbelt region into southern MI. It'll be a long few days ahead, but time is ticking before we hoist watches across the region and I suspect that will be sooner than later due to the significant impacts possible with this system(s).

I think the earliest it can be done is Monday or Tuesday.

[easton229]

Man looking like a crippling ice storm here as of now. Would love to push this thing north to stay all rain.

[MidwestWX]

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I think the earliest it can be done is Monday or Tuesday.

You can make an exception for this type of event. If Sunday 00z and 12z runs are still consistent I'd expect to see some watches pop up.

There is actually some wiggle room but it's usually downplayed to avoid getting a rug pull scenario. I'm pumped regardless! 

[MidMichiganWx]

Should be an interesting couple days. 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, MidwestWX said:

You can make an exception for this type of event. If Sunday 00z and 12z runs are still consistent I'd expect to see some watches pop up.

There is actually some wiggle room but it's usually downplayed to avoid getting a rug pull scenario. I'm pumped regardless! 

Assuming offices go by the book, MN shouldn't have any watches until the Sunday afternoon package is sent so yeah only 2 more model cycles to go. I doubt the storm changes much over those model runs.

Edit: this assumes the first wave meets watch/warning criteria. If #1 is just a WWA level event then maybe no watches until Monday afternoon.

Edited February 19, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie

[Pros3lyte]

10 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Yeeesh no thanks!!

[easton229]

42 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

Yeeesh no thanks!!

Nearly an inch of freezing rain. Yea, that would shut things down for a long while.

[Indygirl]

Gotta say, this is one of those times I’m GLAD it’s missing my area! 
“Ice=no thank you!!”

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Indygirl said:

Gotta say, this is one of those times I’m GLAD it’s missing my area! 
“Ice=no thank you!!”

Can I come to you to prevent the Ice from taking out power from your area? 😝

[Guest]

Another infamous triple-phase storm, this time with 160+ kt jet streaks. A perfect combination of arctic air, subtropical moisture, and Pacific energy

[Guest]

Monday evening - Thursday evening EFI snow guidance based on 00Z ECMWF ensemble. It would be nice if the map had states on it, but the most extreme snow amounts compared to local climatology should fall across Wyoming, the Front Range of Montana, and a roughly west-east band extending east toward Green Bay. While daily amounts won't be as extreme farther east, there's potential for 2-3 consecutive days of moderate to heavy snow amounts that ramp up impacts. Another thing to note is that southern edge is going to be razor sharp; I'm feeling content sitting on the northern gradient with potential for a long-duration northeasterly lake effect setup. 

[MidwestWX]

15 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Assuming offices go by the book, MN shouldn't have any watches until the Sunday afternoon package is sent so yeah only 2 more model cycles to go. I doubt the storm changes much over those model runs.

Edit: this assumes the first wave meets watch/warning criteria. If #1 is just a WWA level event then maybe no watches until Monday afternoon.

Correct! I

At this point, both waves will produce WSW level snows across most of the area. Our main gripe is what we do with C MN counties for wave 1 due to WW.Y type impacts/accum. I'm still waiting for the rug to get pulled out from under my feet but I'll save my met thoughts for the AFD.

EDIT: We're just going to message the clipper's impacts for tonight/Monday. If we didn't have this on the door step I'd likely have something out for it, too. 

Edited February 19, 2023 by MidwestWX
Clipper

[BuckeyeGal]

What a massive storm. I, too, am glad I don't have to deal with all the ice. Thinking of you, Northern neighbors, and hoping it trends colder so you're more snow than ice ice baby.

[SNOWBOB11]

Wow great euro run for my area. 10-12” with a snow to sleet event. Definitely came a bit south this run.

Edited February 19, 2023 by SNOWBOB11

[MidMichiganWx]

Euro dropping a foot here; hesitant to believe that as I’m right on the edge of the mixing profiles. Guess we’ll see what short term guidance shows. 

[Chicagosnow]

ice

[StormfanaticInd]

I'm somewhat worried this could trend south with the ice. Hopefully not though 

[StormfanaticInd]

Either way somebody is getting a nasty icestorm out of this

Edited February 19, 2023 by StormfanaticInd