December 12-14, 2022 | Significant Tornado Outbreak

[ClicheVortex2014]

From the OK panhandle

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Retrograding dryline meets cold front

 

[Neoncyclone]

New 10% hatched has certainly been expanded

 

[Neoncyclone]

SPC AC 121722 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MS...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards -- including tornadoes -- are possible from parts of east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley area Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the deep cyclonic flow in place across the western CONUS, contributing to the development of a mature mid-latitude cyclone over the northern/central Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, with a belt of 100-120 kt 500-mb winds likely stretching from the southern High Plains into the Mid MO Valley on Tuesday afternoon

. A deep surface low, resulting from late Monday/early Tuesday cyclogenesis, will likely be near the CO/KS/NE border intersection Tuesday morning. Overall evolution of the system will take this low northeastward across central NE as it occludes. An associated triple point is expected to begin the period near the central KS/OK border before then moving eastward with time. The cold front extending south of this triple point will push eastward throughout the day, likely extending from northwest AR southwestward through the Brazos Valley/central TX Coastal Plain at 00Z Wednesday. Continued eastward progression is anticipated Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, and the front is forecast to extend from the AR/TN border vicinity southwestward into the Lower Sabine River Valley/TX Golden Triangle region 12Z Wednesday. ...Central/East TX eastward into southern/western MS... Synoptic-scale evolution described in the synopsis will contribute to moderate moisture advection across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley ahead of the approaching cold front. Expectation is for line a showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing along the front from southern KS into central TX early Tuesday morning. Low-levels will be moist but relatively cool, contributing to some uncertainty regarding if these early storms will be surface based. Forecast hodographs show large low-level curvature and ample storm-relative helicity (and streamwise vorticity) to support a QLCS tornado threat with any surface-based storms. Robust wind fields and fast storm motion will also contribute to a risk for strong wind gusts. Thunderstorms are expected to continue along the front as it continues eastward into more of east TX and eastern OK, although some weakening may occur as the forcing for ascent becomes displaced farther northward throughout the morning and afternoon. Even so, brief tornadoes and strong gusts will be remain possible. A reinvigoration of storms along and ahead the front is anticipated later during the afternoon and into the early evening as the front moves into the more thermodynamically favorable environment of east TX and western LA. Some of the guidance even hints at a transition to more of a discrete mode across central portions of far east TX and far west-central LA. Vertically veering wind profiles will still be in place, and a more discrete mode would favor supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. One or two strong tornadoes may occur. The general trend for storms both along the cold front and just ahead of it is expected to continue eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The threat for tornadoes and strong wind gusts will continue across the Lower MS Valley, where ample low-level moisture increases the likelihood for surface-based storms. Strong wind gusts are also possible farther north through the Mid-South, where proximity to the triple point and stronger low/mid-level flow will increase the potential for wind gusts capable of penetrating the low-level stable layer expected to be in place. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2022

[ElectricStorm]

New Day 2 outlook also has a 10 hatched now. Interesting 

[Neoncyclone]

Wow, no wonder they added that 10% hatched, look at that moisture transport on Wednesday...

 

According to the HRRR LLLR's also enhance on Wednesday getting upwards of 7.0C/km

Edited December 13, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

Mean looking meso forming on this supercell in Texas

[Iceresistance]

Watching the squall line in Central Oklahoma, may go under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch soon. 

[Neoncyclone]

2 tornado warnings now, plenty of discrete supercells

 

[Iceresistance]

The Tornado-warned storm near Bradley is coming in my General Direction right now.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Warning now includes Cleveland County, that is heading my way.

 

 

My mother is not thrilled being woken up by me at 5:30 AM in the morning.

[Iceresistance]

Okay, this is making me a little worried because that is heading towards me!

[Neoncyclone]

Damaging tornado SE of Purcell, OK!

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said:

Damaging tornado SE of Purcell, OK!

It now has a "Radar Confirmed" Tag, I really need to think about getting into the Storm Shelter!

[Neoncyclone]

The debris ball is gone, doesn't mean it won't drop back down, if you're in the path absolutely head to a safe space now.

 

[Neoncyclone]

@Iceresistance I saw your general location on your profile, i'd say the tornadic portions of these storms will go south of you, however it isn't worth the risk, you're in the polygon so i would definitely seek shelter.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

New probable tornado west of Wannete, OK

[Neoncyclone]

Things are escalating quickly, potential debris ball in Texas now

EDIT: Confirmed

Edited December 13, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Iceresistance]

5 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

@Iceresistance I saw your general location on your profile, i'd say the tornadic portions of these storms will go south of you, however it isn't worth the risk, you're in the polygon so i would definitely seek shelter.

It's safer now, that Squall Line just blew through my area and the tornado threat is now over.

 

Tornado on the Ground near Wanette.

[Neoncyclone]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

It's safer now, that Squall Line just blew through my area and the tornado threat is now over.

 

Tornado on the Ground near Wanette.

Tornado threat is not necessarily over for you, the squall is riding NE in your direction, however velocity scans are showing significant weakening.

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Tornado threat is not necessarily over for you, the squall is riding NE in your direction, however velocity scans are showing significant weakening.

I reconsider that on no more tornado threat, there is a solid couplet near Tribbey, and it's heading towards me!

[Neoncyclone]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

I reconsider that on no more tornado threat, there is a solid couplet near Tribbey, and it's heading towards me!

Just stay weather aware for the next 30 minutes, i'm pretty sure you're clear but its always better to be safe than it is to be sorry.

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Just stay weather aware for the next 30 minutes, i'm pretty sure you're clear but its always better to be safe than it is to be sorry.

There is three QLCS couplets, near Brooksville, over Tribbey, and near Asher.

 

Confirmed damage in Wayne

[Neoncyclone]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

There is three QLCS couplets, near Brooksville, over Tribbey, and near Asher.

 

Confirmed damage in Wayne

Yeah the debris ball from Wayne looked like no joke, really hoping it's not too bad, that being said the squall should be leaving your area any time now.You were just north enough to stay away from most of the nasty!

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said:

Yeah the debris ball from Wayne looked like no joke, really hoping it's not too bad, that being said the squall should be leaving your area any time now.You were just north enough to stay away from most of the nasty!

Tornado Threat is now along US-177, tornado threat is now OVER! That was too close!